Justify...

[Sandreadis]

broke slow and last in both of his races with 5 horse fields.

 2/18 MSW  Wrona \"Justify last into stride\"
 3/11 OCL  Equibase Chart  \"off step slow\"
 4/7  STK  Equibase Chart  \"drifted out into stretch, drifted in some from the whip past mid stretch\"

[T Severini]

Caveat, its Bob Baffert. He will be the favorite.

But, he is a one track wonder that came off an absolutely greased surface last.  We\'ll see how Churchill plays. Hopefully fair.

He did bear out in the last having it all his own way. I\'m hoping my Shackleford takes the game to him and that the track plays fair.

I hate Scat Daddy\'s and my strategy will be to beat them like a drum and party large!

(Not to imply I\'m on the Shackleford. But spent a lot of time looking at Roman\'s other horse and not calling him a winner but I think he\'s gonna make some noise at a price.)

[FrankD.]

Is it REALLY CHUCKLES?
He is BACK....
10 mil in win pool and Jack is still 5/1.

What a strange trip it’s been with 4.5 hours to go......

[T Severini]

Looking at My Boy, Will check odds here in a minute. If he\'s really 5-1 this may not be an interesting race.

Still making up my mind. Am only betting the Derby.  Good Luck Frank. Will post a bit more when it jells.

[jerry]

Saw an ad somewhere for a guy who’s successfully picked the winner in the last 7 or 8 derbies. The teaser was MBJ would be on his tickets. That was all. Then came the pay pitch and I logged off. Sounds like a weak link but 5-1 based on a sloppy Southwest win doesn’t sound like smart money to me either. Weird.

[T Severini]

Franks a good handicapper but 5-1 with his penchant for Wide and Hang doesn\'t move me into his column for win.  He\'s a use. Its time to evaluate it all on wet track. I am so far behind the curve this year!

[jerry]

Ran a lot closer to his closing odds than to his morning line. Maybe there’s more to the story than just Jack.

[boardedup]

Yeah, really the only horses to run well were the same one\'s that took all the money (Save Instilled Regard obviously).  In what appeared to be a super strong field, that was shocking to me honestly?  The public basically hit the race like a (2018) Matt Harvey slider.  Getting that result after looking at the \"will pays\" for the better part of an hour was straight up offensive.

Who do we have lurking for Belmont?  Because unless Quip turned into a monster or Audible somehow keeps moving forward, the Preakness is an absolute wrap.

[T Severini]

Someone mentioned the foundation issue perhaps rearing its head. I\'ve bet horses in the past to overcome the no 2YO start jinx, but I don\'t think I\'ve bet that horse as the Derby Favorite.  Haven\'t reviewed my Derby Record in a while because its been poor lately, but it hasn\'t always been and set aside reviewing it sensing it rubbed folks the wrong way. I\'ll go over it later and look at Jinx horses I\'ve bet.

Now, once again, the caveat is, this is a Baffert Jinx/Foundation Issue horse. That has to be factored. But here we have a horse that was \"late\", traditionally would have some Foundation questions and now must stick a very strict schedule. He did bear out in the Santa Anita Derby and though he makes his own luck, he did have a very advantaged run Saturday.

If someone has information about why he was \"late\", it would contribute to the review. There\'s always room to consider taking a stone cold favorite on. That\'s what we do.

[rhagood]

Besides the general idea of letting this large horse continue to grow into his frame, Elliot Walden in the post race presser revealed this nugget.

They had been wanting to get some horses to Baffert, once they sent Justify to him  in 2017 he resided at the Los Al training center and Walden was nervous that he wouldn\'t get the personal attention at the B stable.  He kept asking Baffert when the horse was moving to Santa Anita which didn\'t happen until very late.  Once he worked there the first time Baffert really knew what he had but it was too late to unwind that loss of time.  Not having trained a lot for Winstar you could see him lower on the pecking order than some of his lifelong big money clients, I mean you have to careful who you put in the B barn. How many trainers can \"hide\" a $500,000 Keeneland yearling....So he was deep on the bench so to speak but once the coach put him in it was Katy Bar the Door.  On another note, Baffert gave thanks to Rick Hammerle who wrote up Justify\'s NW1 allowance race just for him and got it fill and run with a short field at Baffert\'s request.  Any later and the timing wouldn\'t have been good to make either the Arkansas or Santa Anita Derbies. As the old saying goes, \"Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.\" I think the next time Winstar sends him more horses they will get a closer look!

[T Severini]

Appreciate that, thank you

Spent some time looking into it and could only come up with Elliot Walden saying they decided to \"give him time\".  Still think there\'s more to the story. Seattle Slew moved like a duck as a yearling, but didn\'t miss many races. So much time was \"given\" that they were up against it.

Hadn\'t seen Elliot Walden in a while. He kind of fell out of the media post Victory Gallop, moving to Winstar not real long thereafter. Time certainly doesn\'t stand still.

In the end finding the chink in Justify\'s armor isn\'t as necessary now as it was three days ago.

(That\'s 2, 1 to go!)

[TGJB]

No, it’s the same concept with the pronouns omitted. Still about you.

[T Severini]

TGJB thinks we missed our chance to take Justify out

Ouch

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No, it’s the same concept with the pronouns
> omitted. Still about you.


Can you figure out a way to mute or block people like they do on Twitter??

[richiebee]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > No, it’s the same concept with the pronouns
> > omitted. Still about you.
>
>
> Can you figure out a way to mute or block people
> like they do on Twitter??


I once suggested only half jokingly that TG install a \"Mark ALL (Chuckles)
Messages Read\" function at the bottom of the screen...