Oaks Day Thoughts

[P-Dub]

OK Frank and Richie, I\'ll get the handicapping started. JB if I say too much just let me know, but I\'ll avoid mentioning specific numbers.

RACE 5:
A field of seven 3 YO fillies going 7 furlongs. The favorites look best in here,  However, there is one filly that I will key.  That is the #3 Mia Mischief. She’s 5/2 ML after being odds on in her last four starts. This filly has the fastest figure in the race, and its by a solid margin.  If she repeats it she is the winner. She may get bet down from her 5/2, so the tote board will dictate a win bet.

Contenders include #4 Salt Bae, #5 Talk Veuve To Me, and #6 Gas Station Sushi. Tossing the #1, which means she probably wins. I think the #4 can spice up the tote a bit. I don’t like spreading too thin when the main contenders are low odds, or spending too much money on these horses either. There are better spots to invest your money. But its the first stakes race, so a little warm up wager.

Will single Mia Mischief in the P3 and go 4 deep in the other legs

Straight Exacta: 3 over the 4,5,6.
Trifecta: 3 over 4,5,6 over 4,5,6
Pick 3: 3 / 3,4,6,8 / 5,7,8,9

RACE 6:
Fillies 4+YO going 1 1/16. Last year’s Oaks winner Abel Tasman is entered here, and that was a great call by JB in last year\'s seminar.

#4 Ivy Bell has run some solid numbers sprinting, today she stretches out. I\'ll trust Pletcher with this move. #8 Martini Glass just ran the two best races of her life, but at age 5 will she regress off those two big numbers?? They are the only 2 numbers on her sheet that are competitive. #2 Salty competitive and a must use underneath. #6 Tiger Moth has popped some very solid numbers that can win this race. She is cycling back to one of her good ones and is a must use, especially at her 15/1 ML.

If Abel Tasman moves forward in her first start as a 4YO, they are all running for second money. She is clearly the one to beat. If she just pairs her top effort, then a few of these can challenge.

Win Bet: #6 Tiger Moth
Exacta Box: 6 / 3,4,8
Trifecta: 3,6 with 1,3,4,6,8 with 1,3,4,6,8
Superfecta: 3,6 with 1,3,4,6,8 with 1,3,4,6,8 with 1,3,4,6,8
Pick 3: 3,4,6 / 5,7,8,9 / 1,4,5,8

RACE 7:
#9 Bucchero looks as solid as any. Every so often #5 Latent Revenge can pop a big number. He’s the value for me.

Win Bet: #5 Latent Revenge
Exacta Box: 5 with 2,7,8,9
Tri: 5,9 with 2,5,7,8,9 with 2,5,7,8,9
Pick 3: 5,7,8,9 / 1,4,5 / 2,10

RACE 8:
Call me crazy but I\'m going to try and beat last year’s Derby winner Almost Dreaming. #1 Good Samaritan is a nice looking 4YO, poised for a good effort with that very nice 3YO top. #5 Hoppertunity is a hard knocking older horse that has run a couple big figures over this track. Awesome Slew just popped a big one and I think he regresses, but how much? Playing him to run an off race on short rest off the big effort, but will play underneath based on overall number power and a decent 5/1 ML. Adding the #7 Hawaakom underneath at a price, he can throw in a big one at times.

The one I like the best is #4 Backyard Heaven. A lightly raced 4YO, he will be tested for class today. Shows a nice pattern by matching his solid 3YO top, if he moves forward which I think is very possible, he can score at a decent price. 9/2 on the ML.

Win Bet: #4 Backyard Heaven
Ex Box: 4 with 1,5,7
Tri: 4 with 1,5,7,8 with 1,5,7,8
Super: 4 with 1,5,7,8  with 1,5,7,8 with 1,5,7,8
Pick 3: 1,4,5 / 2,10 / 6,7,9,11
Pick 4: 1,4,5 / 2,10 / 2,6,7,9,11 / The \"A\" horses

RACE 9:
#2 Electric Forest with the fast number, the bo/op bothers me. . #10 Sworn Silence a solid longshot with a nice number last out.

Win Bet: #10 Sworn Silence
Ex Box: #10 with 2,3,6
Tri: 2,10 / 2,3,6,10 / 2,3,6,10
Pick 3: 2,10 / 2,6,7,9,11 / The \"A\" horses

RACE 10:
Nice turf race for 3YO fillies. #11 Rushing Fall is odds on and very solid, but not invincible. The 2,6,7,9 can all contend. Throwing some bombs in here hoping to beat the heavy chalk. I\'m going to box 5 of these and hope 3 of them hit the board. I swear every time I do this the winner pays $3.60. Maybe today will be different.

Tri Box 2,6,7,9,11
Pick 3: 2,6,7,9,11 / \"A\" Horses / 4,10
Pick 4: 2,6,7,9,11/ The \"A\" Horses/ 4,10 / 2,3,4,6

Race 11:
Pretty much going with the seminar. Using the top 2 tiers to structure wagers, and I like the \"A\" horse at a price. Structuring tickets around her.

Good Luck to everyone.

[richiebee]

P-Dub that\'s an excellent run down and I hope your hard work is rewarded.

I will be sitting the Oaks day festivities out, choosing instead to celebrate
\"Quatro de Mayo\" with some much younger (at my age, are there any other kind?)
co-workers.

On tomorrow\'s Derby day card, one of my strongest opinions involves a Cal-based
filly and if she is anywhere around her morning line she might turn out to be one
of my more significant straight bets on the day.

Saddle up lads... medicine men and algorithms be damned!

[Ace]

Skye Diamonds?

[Tavasco]

At least that one won\'t have to catch Selcourt. Bee c/b already partying.

[Molesap]

Nice job – P-Dub. Looks as good as a Steph Curry three. I came to many of the same conclusions for most the same reasons.

RACE 5:
Think MIA MISCHIEF is the one to beat. She has the versatility that the others seem to lack a bit. Her last race, while at 6f, showed her using another style to crush the opposition. That was a fairly quick race so she has number power if repeats and she closed from off the pace. TALK VEUVE TO ME looked very good in her comeback off a layoff and can even move forward off that effort.

RACE 6:
Liked Ivy Bell but she scratched – assumedly to run tomorrow. Outside of debut, ABEL TASMAN has never finished outside of the exacta. Makes 4YO debut here for Baffert after running a game second in the Breeder’s Cup Distaff – he wins almost 1/4 of his races coming off similar layoffs. She already has four G1 wins and a couple of seconds, so this is one serious racehorse. Seems like her training is moving forward and will be the one to beat, but price will to too short I think. Tiger Moth has some big races and seems like a logical price play.

RACE 7:
Hated this race and threw up my hands. I might have to use the dartboard here. Bucchero seems solid enough, but hate to land on favorite by default. Thought of the speeds, Restless Rambler was the most likely to keep going, but really have no preferences here.

RACE 8:
It’s a Chad Brown world and we just wager in it. I have liked BACKYARD HEAVEN form the beginning and he gets the ideal setup here either stalking from Always Dreaming’s right flank or just pushing up and grabbing the lead. In either case this is a highly regarded prospect and could be a superstar – he might win this one for fun. My guess is that we get nowhere near the 9/2.

RACE 9:
ELECTRIC FOREST looked good winning debut from a tough outside post. Number was good and thinks she might even move forward here. Ortiz stays put and should be in a good stalking position the whole way.

RACE 10:
I guess it is better to be 3/5 in a $200K race than 3/1 in a $300K as RUSHING FALL goes here instead of Saturday. I know I am not a true TGenerate when I cannot toss this odds on horse, but she is by far the most likely winner to me. She is 4/4 and has won races under widely varying conditions in case the rain starts up. Have to think she is a winner. Thought maybe Altea would improve off US debut and was graded stakes placed in France.

Race 11:
Hard to get past the favorites for me and the price horse. I know it is early, but at this point in time Midnight Bisou is getting hammered in the DD pools compared to Monomoy Girl. The average probable is about 2/3 of what Monomoy Girl pays. My Miss Lilly and Rayya tend to be the next pair in the betting.

Race 12:
4,10,6

Race 13:
6,2,3

[P-Dub]

Mia\'s Mischief looked good, figured she would get bet down. Also played the super, same price as a trifecta and paid out $158. Pretty decent price with the longshot running 4th.

Abel Tasman currently 3/5.

[P-Dub]

Win Bet: #4 Backyard Heaven
Ex Box: 4 with 1,5,7
Tri: 4 with 1,5,7,8 with 1,5,7,8
Super: 4 with 1,5,7,8 with 1,5,7,8 with 1,5,7,8
Pick 3: 1,4,5 / 2,10 / 6,7,9,11
Pick 4: 1,4,5 / 2,10 / 2,6,7,9,11 / The \"A\" horses

$2 Ex pd $120
$1 Tri pd $183.40
$1 Super pd $549

[Molesap]

P-Dub - you crushed that race - nice job. Keep it rolling.

[P-Dub]

If the 5 wins I hit the trifecta and super. That one hurt, keyed the 2/5 on top in tris and supers. I\'ll be thinking about that one all night.

[Ace]

I had the super if the 5 wins; I\'ve turned the page...

[P-Dub]

Ace Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I had the super if the 5 wins; I\'ve turned the
> page...


I know Ace, I\'ll move on. Those spots don\'t grow on trees tho.

[Ace]

I hear you P Dub. Bad beats always hurt. I like the 9 in the finale at CD, to get my money back.  Who do you like?

[P-Dub]

Just saw this buddy.  Hit the P4 for crumbs and also the last 2 Pick 3s

[Ace]

Good work. I recall you\'re an A\'s fan, I\'m an Angels season ticket holder.  So much fun this year with Ohtani. He can do it all.

[holybull95]

Did the bumping cause the 5 to change back to the wrong lead late with a couple of jumps to go and losing momentum?  Like many others bought the analysis and used the 5 alot....including Oaks/Derby double...