Justify

[grinder]

Given the apparent media hype surrounding his win and the end of the \"Curse of Apollo\", I really hope Justify wins the Preakness. With the absence of a 2 year old foundation and the short spacing of his recent races - I am betting that he will be gassed and a huge bet-against in the Belmont.

[jerry]

Don’t trust sloppy track wins as good predictors of future performance. Especially front running slop wins with only two weeks to recover.

[Chas04]

Yea.......OK.

LOL

[FrankD.]

I received a call from Uncle Bill 5 minutes to post. Those of you that know and love our back yard mascot (not replaced by the kangaroo yet) know his first race track job was as  Man O’ Wars hot walker. A slight exaggeration but not by much Billy goes back to Kelso.

The post parade was the first time Bill had seen Justify. The first words he spoke were not hello, “Frankie I’ve never seen a better looking horse in my life,
there is no way this horse can lose.” I’ll top that by another conversation I had with Bill about 30 minutes ago,”I don’t think he will ever lose, Tom Rolfe was the longest horse I’ve ever seen and this one just doesn’t stop, he can gallop forever with that stride.”

Here is a guy that has 6 decades on the backside,at the track and is JB’s original ground man and reviews the ground data at most of the tracks t-graph covers. A guy that practically lived in Allen Jerkens barn and would go around most evenings with AJ as he personally fed his horses most of the time. A guy who all in the backyard have seen and heard him say wow there’s the winner, ahhh only 5/1. Bill thinks 20/1 is a favorite and seldom if ever bets under his own Mendoza line.

Lot’s of superlatives thrown around about this horse and in the instant gratification world of today, we get  the next best and superstar every 5 minutes in a plethora of fields. 99% crash and burn rather quickly after their 15 minutes of fame.

Mjellish is one of the most respected guys on this board, we all read his potential knocks on this horse. Heck most of us thought or would try to beat him, that’s our job. Never been bumped, taken kickback, been pressed, etc.....
Why take 5/2 in a 20 horse field? I would not let him beat me in horizontals but he was one of five that I used and without a press. I’ll let MJ speak for himself, we exchange opinions and discuss races from time to time. After a couple of weeks of tossing Justify both opinions were amended......

I don’t think too many challengers are going to show up in Baltimore for likely the last Preakness held at Pimlico. I think I’ll be fighting a big crowd at Belmont on June 9th, trust me the last thing I want to do.....

However as Laura and I were on Union Ave three days before the Derby for an art exhibit she entered some of her students in at the museum.
 (Place,Show and a couple of honorable mentions from her 10 entries, a Chad Brown like Performance 😎)
We were in the triple crown room and I told her how lucky I was to have seen live all four TC winners in my lifetime. I’m not guaranteeing a 5th by any means but I’ll be there to see it possibly come to fruition and pray he stays together for my 46th consecutive Travers if so.

Just Sayin,

Frank D.

PS Bill liked this horse so much that even at 5/2 he was willing to bet all the money Rocky (mathcapper) would lend him. He can’t afford my rates 🤫

[mjellish]

Well Frank,

As you know, when I saw Justify\'s last work it converted me.  The gallop out after that long of a work was one of the best I had ever seen.  I figured if he got out of the gate and ran his race no one would beat him.  That was a completely different opinion than I had had previously on the colt.  

When I saw the half mile time come up in 45 and change and he was right on that pace I figured he was toast.  But he kicked on with it.  

Haven\'t done the complete post-mortem on the race.  But it passes the eye test as a very good performance from a pretty special colt.

[T Severini]

That was a very interesting post Frank...thanx.

When Baffert gets a good horse rolling in this series, he can be hell on wheels. But theres been a heckuva lot better looking horses that have stubbed their toe along the line. They can all be beat. Even Pharaoh was beaten his great year (Travers) and the horse that beat him was foreseeable.  

And heres the beauty of it. If you\'re wise enough to pick the upset you don\'t have to bet it with both hands. There will be plenty of value in it to bet small and win big. Let\'s see who comes.

He\'s a good horse. He makes his own luck. That was a race without a pebble in his path.

Gonna start with trip analysis and then a track review. One can\'t deny they flew early and crawled late. That\'s gonna be something to go carefully over.

[grinder]

Gentlemen,

I appreciate your comments. A lot can happen in the intervening weeks before the Belmont, and right now we don\'t know what we don\'t know. Based on earlier comments from JB - sounds like Justify is in the -2 range for the Derby.

Assuming he wins the Preakness, does he move a little forward, pair, or regress and win? How do you interpret that?

How do his workouts look leading up to the Belmont? Same energy and gallop out?

What kind of trip does he get in the Belmont. If he draws inside, can he run covered up and take dirt?

I also went back and took a peak at Big Brown\'s Belmont sheet. Only 1 start as a 2 year, which was in a turf route at Saratoga. This horse could also set very fast fractions while running very fast figures. Steroid issues aside, he obviously fell apart in the Belmont.

In the end, it\'s a game of percentages and probabilities. Given that he will be a very short price, is without the benefit of a 2 year old foundation, and that the Belmont would be his 6th start in less than four months - I\'m against him.

If he beats me - good for him.

[johnnym]

Justify ran a hell of a race.
All the talk he breaks slow, he broke just fine.
He ran well within himself even with that fast 1/2 mile time he was just loping along.
To me it was a repeat performance of the Santa Anita Derby slow third 1/4 mile then play let’s see what you got.
 He did it to Bolt now to G.M
I went so far as to PM a couple a people on this board to say that I believe Justify gutted Bolt in the Santa Anita Derby and his Derby performance backed up my though even though I had him as an A horse and he is now of the triple crown trail.
GM ran a hell of a race gave it his all,I wonder more about G.M next performance that Justify if they meet again.
Who is next?
Baffert two Triple Crowns in three years?
I wouldn’t bet against that with this horse.
He is a superior animal in my opinion both physically and mentally.
Congrats to all who cashed..
John