Thorograph Seminar

[Qtan]

I posted this originally on Youtube, since I\'m not a member here (until today). This is referring to the Audio Seminar of the Derby by Thorograph. It was requested by the moderator of the Youtube channel to post this comment here, so below is what I wrote there:

\"It\'s interesting to read the opening statement: \"Deepest and most competitive field since we started doing seminars\". Because they way the race was run, you have to think the quality of these horses is far below what\'s regarded as Derby Standard. Both Justify and Good Magic were essentially on top of a scorching pace through the first half mile. After that, the pace was slowing down, and towards the end was slowing down to almost a crawl. That both Justify and Good Magic could expend that much speed early and still have the race essentially between them at the end, despite almost walking home, says a lot about the lack of enterprise among any of the others. Off the early fractions set yesterday, you would have thought any of the early laggards with the alleged quality you assert they had would have been able to swallow up these leaders who were clearly slowing down. But no. Justify could run each quarter slower than the preceding one and still not be troubled by anybody else in the race, winning clear. That represents \"The deepest and most competitive fields since we started doing seminars\"? Really??? OK.\"

[Tavasco]

What\'s your point, That you are a contrarian?

This years crop was 1/2 the size of last years. The track got more rain than they ever had in the last 140 years on derby day and for some reason wasn\'t playing fast. Or maybe that  a $10k claimers can can run the last 1/4 mile sub :24. Or maybe TAP took out the fast horse on purpose.

On the other hand I\'ve thought this year\'s crop was overhyped from the get go. But hype and promotion is what makes a Kentucky Derby. Geez, you think its the drunk women in clown hats.

[thebig1five]

Here\'s the thing, the Thorograph people don\'t take into account pace or class when making their analysis. They rely purely on their figs as the end all solution to their handicapping. I haven\'t wasted my money buying their seminars or analysis in a long time but I can imagine what they said this year was something along the lines of how a majority of the field has earned a competitive fig at some point in their careers and that makes it one of the most competitive Kentucky derby fields in a while. But the truth is that many of the figs earned were what I like to call \"fake\" figs because the pace and/or class scenario set up perfectly for the horse when it was earned and matching that fig in the Kentucky Derby is extremely unlikely. So next time you think about purchasing their seminar think again because although the figs are great, you have to use them in context. And Thorograph doesn\'t do that. In fact Thorograph has race shapes for the purpose of analyzing pace but don\'t think for a second that that even matters. Even Jerry Brown himself will say that he doesn\'t have \"time to piss away on this nonsense.\" Unfortunately horse racing is not a sport with a shortage on pretentious d-bags. And these discussion forums are full of them as well.

[P-Dub]

thebig1five Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here\'s the thing, the Thorograph people don\'t take
> into account pace or class when making their
> analysis. They rely purely on their figs as the
> end all solution to their handicapping. I haven\'t
> wasted my money buying their seminars or analysis
> in a long time but I can imagine what they said
> this year was something along the lines of how a
> majority of the field has earned a competitive fig
> at some point in their careers and that makes it
> one of the most competitive Kentucky derby fields
> in a while. But the truth is that many of the figs
> earned were what I like to call \"fake\" figs
> because the pace and/or class scenario set up
> perfectly for the horse when it was earned and
> matching that fig in the Kentucky Derby is
> extremely unlikely. So next time you think about
> purchasing their seminar think again because
> although the figs are great, you have to use them
> in context. And Thorograph doesn\'t do that. In
> fact Thorograph has race shapes for the purpose of
> analyzing pace but don\'t think for a second that
> that even matters. Even Jerry Brown himself will
> say that he doesn\'t have \"time to piss away on
> this nonsense.\" Unfortunately horse racing is not
> a sport with a shortage on pretentious d-bags. And
> these discussion forums are full of them as well.

And you\'re right at the top of the list.

The seminar had the trifecta for both races in the \"A\" group. A 16/1 shot damn near won the Oaks, perhaps would have if not for the late bump that knocked her off stride. That filly was one of the 2 horses rated as the clear value.

The Derby trifecta was all \"A\" horses.

The BC seminar is consistently a money maker for me as well as many others.

Do us all a favor Mr. I just joined 4 days ago. Take a hike.

[ajkreider]

JB can speak for himself, but anyway:

A)  How exactly do you look at one race, where the horses are (obviously) racing against themselves, and make a judgement about a whole different set of horses?  By the way they look, the clock, the pace?  It\'s almost like it would be better to have some sort of mathematical-ish number that measures velocity.  What to call it . . . ..?  

B) It was hardly only TG that made this assessment.  

C) The seminar judgement, I\'m guessing, was made before the Derby was run.

D) The assessment, I\'m guessing, was made based on the 100 or so races the horses ran, in comparison to the thousand or so races of all the horses in those races.  Or, we could just go with the Derby.

E) The track was all over the place.  The allowance horses in the opening two races must have been the best, because they went the the 7F faster than the Grade 2 later in the day, and the mile race went a couple of seconds faster than the Pat Day mile.  Or, maybe sealing the track did God knows what.  

F) This is the farthest any of the them have run.  Maybe you think it\'s silly to make judgments about a crop before the Derby, but then it\'s also silly to make that judgment after an anomaly of a race.  We should wait two years, or something.

G) A bunch of horses did make up a bunch of ground - IR, Jack, Hofburg, even Audible.  Just not enough to catch the top two.  


By the numbers, it was easily the deepest crop - and it had the quickest ever runner coming in.

[rezlegal]

Q- red boarding and silly criticism isn’t well received on this site. But, on behalf of TGraph customers everywhere we hereby give you the  opportunity —indeed, we implore you- to post your picks and analysis for the entire Preakness, Belmont day, travers, and Breeders cup cards BEFORE they are run and we can evaluate your acumen. How about it?

[Edgorman]

I second that E motion!!

[TreadHead]

HAHAHA thanks for the laugh.  So did you ever figure out the mystery of those historic first fractions?

[thebig1five]

LoL pretentious

[thebig1five]

Having Justify, Good Magic, and Audible in the trifecta was the easy part. Didn\'t need to spend extra money on a seminar for that combo. But how about Instilled Regard in the super? He was one who took some finding. Did you throw him out after he finished 4th in the Santa Anita derby? Hmmm...what was his fig? Was he too slow when he tried to run down Justify on a loose easy lead?

And there\'s the pretentiousness I was talking about. Apparently I joined 4 days ago and I\'m not fit to comment. Ok. LoL

[Tavasco]

My apologies for offending you. But I don\'t pretend to be a dirt bag.

[TGJB]

For those who haven\'t seen the seminar, Paul will put it up here for review, and I\'ll let the work speak for itself.

[thebig1five]

Perfect timing. Yet another pretentious type who mocks someone for trying to predict the early pace of the derby. The mystery was in Thorograph\'s race shape figs. And even Jerry Brown couldn\'t explain it so I moved on. Just curious though, did the seminar predict a 22.24 first quarter and a 45.77 half mile? Ultimately I predicted a fast pace and figured Justify would survive on talent, with either Audible, Good Magic, or Bolt finishing 2nd, the same 3 combined with a few closers coming in 3rd, and either Hofburg, Instilled Regard, My Boy Jack, or Lone Sailor finishing 4th. I got lucky that the lower priced closers had troubled trips and Instilled Regard at 85-1 had a clean trip. Hit the super for almost $20,000. How\'d you do?

[TGJB]

Incoming...

[thebig1five]

Ambiguous...