This is exactly the point PDub, speed dont get much cheaper than he already faced in the Derby, unless you want to enter a stakes quality 6F horse.
A word to the new folks who have been drawn to the board during triple crown, raw time discussion is an EXTREMELY foolish way to handicap, and when you use raw times in your posts to position your question or make a point, it ruins your credibility.
You won\'t find a more perfect example of this point that this year\'s Derby. I\'ve actually seen morons on Twitter and other forums like Pace Advantage putting forth the opinion that because Justify got the 2nd slowest time of the last 70 years that he\'s not a good horse. Look at the figure TG gave him compared to other Derby winners. They saw thru those extra 3 seconds it took this year\'s Derby to finish, and if you want to move out of beginner mode, you need to as well.
TGJB likes to use the analogy of running on dry sand at the beach vs running on wet sand near the water\'s edge. This surface, after 3 inches of constant rain, was like trying to run the race WHILE INSIDE the frigging ocean (hyperbole when you consider the track is not all sand, but clay and dirt add to the slime factor and the point still stands). This track surface may have set an all-time Derby low for energy return, and was clearly very tiring as some talented horses finished the race 3 full seconds slower than average horses did in prior fast track years.
what will be interesting to see is if the track was so exhausting that none of the runners who put forth legit efforts will be able to duplicate it in 2 weeks. If Justify does, he will be that much more impressive of a horse, especially when considering the off-track Derby to Preakness stats someone posted in a different thread. If Justify loses, it won\'t be because of a rabbit, it will be because he couldn\'t handle the efforts he\'s had to put out the last 2 months.
If you want to see further examples of someone looking like a complete fool discussing raw times, find the threads about a poster named \"LoneF\" on the PaceAdvantage board. CJ from Timeform tried to politely explain to him how dumb he was being and how figure makers look at this stuff, but if you aren\'t direct with this type of stupidity, I don\'t think there\'s any way other people will learn from it.
Usually, you can\'t change the mind of the original poster, but there are so many other people reading, if you truly want to help them be better handicappers, direct feedback on concepts like raw time is the best way to get the point across to lurkers.
I also remember getting into an epic twitter argument with some guy who said there was no way Goldencents would lose a few years back because his 9F raw time (over what was back then an extremely glib Santa Anita surface, no longer is) was a full second better than anyone else in the field. To him, and people like him, I say:
\"Welcome to the pools\"
