ROTW

[One-time]

Trying to pad my Belmont stakes bankroll (major underlay justify)—-can the TG gods gift me a rotw?

[TGJB]

After the Belmont we’ll pick that back up. Seminar to write this week.

[Tavasco]

If I understand your post, you are of the opinion that the current 4/5 win odds on Justify is a major underlay. What I was wondering is, what chance do you give Justify (as a percentage) of winning.

Assuming 11 contenders, which I believe is the current number who are willing to tackle the so called average champion.

Lastly, trainer Bafferts 2nd entry is currently listed @ 30/1. What\'s up with that? I know he is unaccomplished, so why enter him? Nudge nudge.

[Ace]

The 9th at Belmont is a cracking good race tomorrow, the Pennine Ridge Stakes (G3). You have the 4/5 favorite Analyze It for Chad Brown facing some tough customers including well-bred for grass entries from Mott, Clement, Motion, Toner, Dickinson and Pletcher along with the well regarded Catholic Boy. I haven\'t seen the sheets yet but am intrigued. It could also end up good or soft, so going against the 4/5 fave might be a good opportunity tomorrow. The race is a prep for a Belmont G1 on July 7th, which has a purse $1M more than tomorrow\'s. All in all a very fun equine puzzle for the first Saturday in June.

[jbelfior]

The Clement horse is interesting with a number as good as anyone in here outside of the 3-5 favorite.

Lone speed if Hawkish decides for the Penn National race. A 1 1/8th on the inner at Belmont where uncontested speed tends to stick around.

I\'ll let Catholic Boy beat me in the exacta carrying 123. Ditto Untamed Domain who may have his very late kick compromised going another 1/16th for the first time.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[One-time]

Never said Justify was an average champion, quite the opposite going less than 10F. If there are distance concerns (you never really know going 12F until they run) and he sets the early fractions that he has in previous races--chances are he can be run down. Especially with the quality runners that have been pointing to this race like Hoffburg, Vino Rosso, etc.

Back to the ROTW. Between the scratch of Pure Sensation and horses entered on the wrong surface I like Pool Winner. He seems to be in form with nice spacing between races, a trainer that does well at Penn and of course one of the fastest numbers in the race if he at least pairs.

[Tavasco]

Sekrah was the poster who referred to Justify as an average champion.

Apparently your process doesn\'t include estimating the probability of winning or else its not something you want to share. So the notion of Justify being a major overlay could be considered an assertion. Who cares anyway.

The ROTW is foreground on a dry Saturday.