Revising the Pattern Studies

[asfufh]

Hi JB, I noticed in one of George Smith\'s postings to the Rag message board that he mentioned that race spacing may be less important than currently accepted pattern theory in projecting todays\' fig for a horse.
I am hopeful that one of the ultimate uses of your pattern studies would be to confirm or debunk commonly held beliefs regarding Sheet pattern reads. To this end, I suggested using the pattern stats to compute the average time between races for different stats (see my prior email of 7/22 on Pattern Studies).
Will anything be done in this area? Thanks, Asfufh

[mandown]

Hi asfufh,

I\'ll annoy JB by getting in before him. The point I was making was that, in my opinion and as result of examining the database, there was too much dogma attached to horses needing rest. The reality is that some horses need rest while others don\'t. In my view there are three factors to take into account - the sire, the dam and the trainer. Each of these has an influence on the way a horse runs.

If the sire and dam stood a lot of racing and/or the trainer is good off short rest then you\'d be wrong to exclude a horse simply because it\'s only 7-14 days from his previous run. As I said on the other board this is a game of probablilities, not absolutes.

I\'ve looked at various studies and at some point when the workload allows we\'ll get into it deeper.

Was that OK, Boss?

George (White, not Smith)

[asfufh]

George, Thanks for the update and sorry for the name screwup.
I am going to follow your advice on the three spacing factors and see what happens.
I look forward to your deeper analysis and keep annoying JB... ;>).
Asfufh