Louisiana Derby

[Fairmount1]

Rocky, outstanding!!  

Can you confirm anything similar with Street Band in FG Oaks?  She was 20-1 (best of my recollection) when I left my table to go to the wagering machine at approx 2 mtp.  10-1 off odds.

If too time consuming, I understand.

[Mathcapper]

Richie -- didn\'t see the 20-1, I took a snapshot as they were getting in the gate and she was already 10-1. There was some last minute movement, but it was all on the chalk, who went from 3/5 in the gate to 1.5/5, which was right in line with her DD-implied odds. The other entries all drifted higher in the last flash, included Street Band, although she did drift up the least, going off at 10.9-1.

[BitPlayer]

I think I had a similar exchange with TGJB back when I first started reading this board.  I have two thoughts:

Milkowski (I think on a different Pacecast) said he tends to downplay figures from very slow paced races in his handicapping.

As TGJB has said, when you are doing projections off of prior figures, the quality of your prior figures is of critical importance.  That has been one of his principal criticisms of the Ragozin figs.

[TGJB]

All serious figure makers use some form of what is generally referred to as the projection method, which simply means using the actual horses that ran, as opposed to pars.

[Boscar Obarra]

I assume folks know this, and why.

 Then again....