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Author Topic: Derby  (Read 2092 times)

johnnym

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Re: Derby
« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2019, 03:24:34 PM »
Tax is one Of the 8 I like.
He paired his two year old top and Arch colts tend to improve 4pts from there two year old to three year old seasons. He has a big shot to move forward.
Like his spacing as well
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TreadHead

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Re: Derby
« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2019, 03:52:02 PM »
There is a consensus that Improbable\'s breeding is not for the Derby?

A large number of idiots in that consensus then.

City Zip is an extremely versatile sire and the past 20 years have shown that sprinting tendencies on the sire side are often outweighed by stamina influences on the mare\'s side in Derby winners, going all the way back to Smarty Jones.

City Zip is a half to Ghostzapper FFS

This one is out of an AP Indy mare, it doesn\'t get better than that for stamina these days unless you start going overseas.

And as for running lines, the horse consistently runs faster BRIS pace ratings from E2 to E1 and then from LP to E2.  Late pace is always his best figure.

There\'s absolutely zero to suggest that there\'s anything in his pedigree or running lines that indicates 10F will be a problem for him, relative to these other horses.

Improbable may not win the race for other reasons, but pedigree is an absolutely ridiculous reason to discount him.
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TGJB

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Re: Derby
« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2019, 04:24:14 PM »
Explain to me what \"idiots\" added to that post. Then don\'t do it again.
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TGJB

TreadHead

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Re: Derby
« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2019, 04:32:16 PM »
Sorry, must have been channeling the ghost of Jimbo without realizing it.

Next time I\'ll use \"extremely ill-informed opinion not based on reality and you would probably do well to not take any advice from the person/people saying it\" in order to be polite.  That doesn\'t roll off the tongue quite as easy though.
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big18741

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Re: Derby
« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2019, 04:37:04 PM »
Baffert had no problem getting Collected(City Zip/Johannesburg mare)to handle 10f\'s.

Take a look at his sheet for the BC Classic-in the 2017 archives.

Pacific Classic win/BC Classic 2nd to Gun Runner were plenty fast.
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TGJB

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Re: Derby
« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2019, 04:53:35 PM »
Don’t do that either. You can offer an opinion or attack one without attacking or characterizing the person offering it.
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TGJB

Furious Pete

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UAE Derby
« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2019, 05:18:17 PM »
The ground is way off on Plus Que Parfait, you probably want to look into that. Very weak edition of the UAE Derby this year, I\'m not even sure he paired his tops when winning it.
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Tavasco

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Re: City Zip
« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2019, 06:25:39 PM »
City Zip The Sire ->

Simply put, no Kentucky Derby winners mentioned in the article. No triple crown winners mentioned in the article. There may be some. I don\'t know.

Just as others I am happy that those with differing opinions are wagering into the pools.

I don\'t think Improbable is a short enough price to leave completely off vertical tickets. I also think he has enough potential to include on vertical tickets.

If Bob Baffert says use him well duh not Winstar\'s first rodeo and I\'m pretty sure they have no problems getting a good table. LOL
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Gerard

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Re: Derby
« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2019, 07:09:31 PM »
Some tops/pairs/offs data after a high variant deviation race would be interesting to hear about if possible. Assuming the Santa Anita/Sunland Derby and possibly some others were such races.
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Bet Twice

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Re: Derby -MJ?
« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2019, 07:13:53 PM »
Hoping he chimes in with his thoughts.
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Mstrlucky74

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Re: Derby
« Reply #25 on: April 23, 2019, 07:52:08 PM »
Horses that could run 0.

Instagrand
Bourbon War
Bodexpress
Spinoff
Win Win Win
War Of Will
Haikal
Vekoma
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RICH

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Re: Derby
« Reply #26 on: April 23, 2019, 08:42:24 PM »
might be a good idea to start with who did run a zero already for the win
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bluechip21

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Re: Derby
« Reply #27 on: April 23, 2019, 08:51:40 PM »
This is a fair point but most of my handicapping has been more focused on the second, third and fourth place finishers. I tend to agree with this set. But there are a couple I’d add. Tax for one comes to mind, though I fear he will get the vaunted “wise guy horse”. Irrelevant, yes, but it’s worth noting for those underneath. Heavy study of past derby sheets will ensue (to the extent it hasn’t already taken place, which brings me to one point... man, how have horses gotten faster.)
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Focus959

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Re: Derby
« Reply #28 on: April 23, 2019, 10:10:14 PM »
In the \"less is more\" category, here are the number of 3 yo starts since 2000. (Barbaro had 2 dirt starts and won on the turf January).

Current ML favorite sitting with 4 starts; that would end a long run...

2018   Justify   3
2017   AD   3
2016   Nyquist   2
2015   AP   2
2014   CC   3
2013   Orb   3
2012   IHA   2
2011   AK   2
2010   SS   2
2009   MTB   2
2008   BB   2
2007   SS   2
2006   Barbaro   3
2005   Giacomo   3
2004   Smarty Jones   3
2003   Funny Cide    3
2002   War Emblem   4
2001   Monarchos   4
2000   Fu Peg   4
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Al Caught Up

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Re: Derby
« Reply #29 on: April 23, 2019, 10:46:10 PM »
Smarty had four starts prior to the Derby: The Count Fleet, the Southwest, the Rebel, and the Arky Derby.
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