Selection Time Has Arrived

[Silver Charm]

I like War of Will. I know the 1 post position has not been good statistically for winners. But I actually think tactically today its a good spot to be running from. The rail has been live. Send out of there and sit behind the wall of early speed.

For this one he did pretty much miss his prep. So he may have needed a race. Bravazzo last year had the same set up and ran quite well Preakness Day. He has a 48% chance to pair or run a new top. A rail 1 might win this thing. I just don\'t see any negative numbers coming

[sekrah]

Well done sir..  I thought the tote was broken when I saw 6-1 on this monster.

[Silver Charm]

This was literally STEALING. It was 6-1 on the 2nd best 3YO in Country behind Tacitus. Past of the odds edge I\'m sure was NO ONE who bet Maximum Security could bet this horse today. If they did then they knew the infraction was real.

He was have been a tab short Derby Day. We will never know. But he was certainly live enough to get up there and challenge Maximum until he was denied. That move I can live with but it was the immediate left hand turn to rail and brushing Code of Honor. Too much race riding. Easy DQ

[T Severini]

lol

Congrats Silver...no  hint of PP there.

On to the Belmont and let the better picked horse prevail.

[Silver Charm]

It was by default. Under normal trip handicapping circumstances people would be all over this kind of Derby Day bad trip in just about any race. Block on the rail, slammed at the start, full of run nowhere to go....whatever. This was the opposite. The back lash

PS-I gave up on Bourbon War 3 races ago. That 1 in an allowance race is a very questionable isolated top. I know the Ragozin guys got KILLED on this one today....

[sekrah]

Yes, I wanted nothing to do with a horse that I\'ve been raving about for three weeks at 6-1 with an inside post on a track with a golden rail.

The best horse in the Derby, won the Preakness.

[Silver Charm]

There is a lot to talk about here with these last two races.  Best 3YO? Today he can say that with absolute certainty. Down the road I\'m not so sure. The horses winning now are running 1\'s. These 3YO are starting the campaign with fewer and fewer starts. WoW has had more than a few tries. If he goes in the Belmont he has overdone it for the rest of the year. But Casse and Barber may take their swing. Give him a rest and one or two more tries later. With the way Mott is going I still think Tacitus runs over top of them Belmont Day and will be a serious force in the fall against these older horses.

[Tavasco]

How about Country House any upside in your opinion?

[Silver Charm]

He went what 4-2-.5 his last 3 and now he is sick? I think this one takes a long break. His half sister Mithcel Road ran over the Top of the field yesterday and looks like a serious contender in that division perhaps at the right distance. Again another that wasnt pushed. There was another half brother who went on sprints.

3YO-Top 4
4YO-Top Neg 1
5YO- Top 0

3 off Spring so far for a real productive mare. Since Country House was put up in the Derby there is pressure to validate. He more than held his own with Tacitus in his pre Derby works. I doubt they push it.

[big18741]

No question Tacitus is a good 3yo but does he have to like 12f\'s?

[bluechip21]

Everfast sneaking up the rail cost me quite a bit as had Owendale keyed every way imaginable. Did anyone have Everfast? I keep looking at his sheet and the best case I can make for him (in hindsight that is) is the pair last out. ... curious if others had any thoughts.

[shanahan]

absolutely not, but also did not have # 5 for the win at all.  Expected bounce.

[JR]

Anyone who had Everfast would not dare shame themselves admitting to it on this board unless they are a boneheaded idiot which we, of course, are not. We are experts

That said, 25-1 was suspiciously short.

[jbelfior]

Joins the list of no shot head scratchers who have sucked up second in a TC race.

Commanding Curve, Cherry Wine, Tale of Verve.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ajkreider]

CC was not a no-hope-er, at least on TG - especially with his running style.

But I feel the OP\'s pain. Was completely confident in tossing Improbable out of the exacta. But would not have put Everfast in that box with your money.