Figure Based Handicapping Gambling Question for Jerry

[Silver Charm]

I know there are always many other factors involved but lets filter those out for the sake of this potential example

Horse A runs about a zero every time. Horse A does loom the lone speed and drew inside.
Horse B runs about a zero every time. Horse B drew just outside Horse A and has stalking speed if he chooses.

Horse B is giving Horse A 5 lbs or 1 point in figures.
Horse A is even money
Horse B is 8-5
The rest of the field has no chance.
I played Horse B on Saturday because I was willing to give the 5 lbs for the value. Was I wrong?

[TGJB]

That’s too many assumptions for me. Nobody tune anything every time. I would have to see the specifics. Basically it’s what’s the chance of running figure X, and what’s the chance of winning if it does.

[bluechip21]

My name isn’t Jerry, but if I think i know the race you’re talking about. ...

This race came down to class for me. ... I also thought Mope ran a good race. Wish she got up.

[bluechip21]

Also, please forgive the redboard. Wasn’t my intent.

[Silver Charm]

The race was the Ogden Phipps. In more simpler terms if two horses are even on figures but one has to spot the other 1 pt of weight what is the breaking point in odds where it becomes worth it to play the one spotting the weight?

If the odds were the other way around it is a no brainer. Equal on figures, giving five lbs and getting the lower odds. No can do.

[TGJB]

I think the best I can do with this is to frame it as, if you give two horses an equal chance at level weights, how much do I think a one point weight advantage is worth in terms of chance of winning, on a percentage basis. And the answer is, depends on how sold the horses are. In a grass stake race, where they run their race a very high percentage of the time (and assuming no discernable trip advantage), it\'s worth a real lot. In a race with more volatile dirt horses, not nearly as much.

[johnnym]

Great stuff thanks