Swan Song?

[Caradoc]

Regrettably, the fatality in the Classic yesterday may be the enduring memory and legacy of this year\'s BC.  If so, it may be the final nail in the coffin for racing, as outlined in the link below. If so, racing will have played a large role in its own demise, as it has done next to nothing to meaningfully address the growing public perception that racing is just an elaborate form of animal cruelty. If it isn\'t the final nail in the coffin, it might be the last wakeup call it gets.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/feinstein-racings-days-are-numbered-if-theres-an-equine-death-during-breeders-cup/

[jma11473]

Do you mean just in California? I understand that this was the last thing anyone wanted (though you knew it would happen because it\'s the way things have gone at Santa Anita), but you expect all of horse racing and $12 billion a year in wagering to end because of this additional breakdown?

[Caradoc]

Just conveying Senator Feinstein\'s statements about her intentions if there was a breakdown during the BC.

[bluechip21]

Here is to hoping TG sets up a Hong Kong office.

[Boscar Obarra]

First he has to wade through the rioters.

[Al Caught Up]

If I recall correctly, Dianne Feinstein was among the many who voted in favor of the disastrous resolution to go to war in Iraq in 2002.

[vired]

wtf?

[jerry]

Based on the best information available at that time.

[Rich Curtis]

\"Everything that could be done is being done to make it safer.\"

Johnny: The best thing you can do to save the sport is to quit \"defending\" it.

[BitPlayer]

Some observations about the incident:

The injury seemed to occur as Mongolian Groom was being hit with the whip (right-handed and not for the first time) and encouraged to change leads.

The trainer did not employ trainer-speak when talking to Jay Privman about the horse\'s last work.  He said it was slower than he wanted and that he had been concerned enough to have the horse scoped.

I wonder that the fatality rate is in the Breeders Cup.  On one hand one would think that the horses are so valuable that they have the advantage of every precaution, but it may also be that the increased level of competition increases the risk.

Nationally, a horse\'s chance of being fatally injured in a race is about 0.2%.  Even if Santa Anita cut that in half, with around 200 horses were competing on Friday and Saturday, the chance of at least one fatality was still about 18%.

[JimP]

How did you get to 18%?

[BitPlayer]

The probability of each horse coming home safely is 0.999. The probability of 200 horses all doing so is the product of all those probabilities: 0.999 to the 200th power, which is 0.819.   The probability of that not happening is 1 minus 0.819, which equals 0.181, or roughly 18%.

[banditbeau]

Bit - is it possible that the probability is even higher than you suggest?
Using a calculator of Binomial and Cumulative probabilities, and the occurrence rate mentioned:

Probability of a single trial = .002
Number of trials = 200
Number of undesired events, x = 1
Binomial probability = P (X=x), = .268
Cumulative probability = P (XCumulative probability = P (X=Cumulative probability = P (X>x) = .061
Cumulative probability = P (X>=x) = .329 or almost 33% chance of this event happening with the number of runners and the event rate of occurrence.

Is this possible?

BB

[Marlin]

Am I nuts here or is Mathcapper going to chime in here.

If the chances are 0.20 % then THAT probability remains constant NO matter how many horses (volume) .  Probability does not change based on volume, BUT incident count can change, not incident RATE.  

For example, flip a coin 1,000 times & it is still 50% probability of Heads.

200 Horses @ 0.20% probability is 0.40 horse incidents; less than ONE horse. NOT 18%

[BitPlayer]

BB -

Your calculations are right.  You used a fatality rate of 0.2%.  I assumed that Santa Anita had succeeded in cutting that rate in half, to 0.1%.