Midas Eyes at 7-2!!!

[jimbo66]

How does Midas Eyes pay 7-2?

I know JB didn\'t like him, threw him out in the analysis and boxed a few others, but Frankel always gets bet.  

Strong Hope is turning into a sucker bet.  He always looks like the favorite bet and always look good.  9-5 seemed OK for him, as Clock Stopper was really bet hard.

By the way JB, in case you missed the post, this isn\'t a \"redboard\", just a little bit of a gloat.  I discussed the Forego in your Penn Derby chain.  I thought Midas Eyes MIGHT be 5-2.  Shocked to see him dead on the board.

Anybody know if Frankel is going to get Cajun Beat back to the races soon?  Possibly in time to defend the BC?

After a slow summer, Frankel\'s horses are starting to heat up a little bit.  How about another \"theory\".  The last few years his horses were cranked up over the summer and then by BC they almost all fizzled and were \"over the top\".  Any chance he might be trying to correct that by pointing them towards the fall and not \"turning the screws\" in the spring and early summer?  Thoughts?

[Silver Charm]

>For \"contenders\", I think you have Strong Hope, Clock Stopper, A Huevo and Midas Eyes.

>Pace is also hard to read.

>I thought Strong Hope was a strong bet in the Met Mile against Pioo Central, but couldn\'t have been more wrong. Freshening him up for this race is probably a good thing as he really fires fresh.

>Tough to say how the race will be bet, but I am guessing Strong Hope is about 7-5, Midas Eyes 5-2, Clock Stopper 3-1 and A Huevo maybe 6-1.

>My strongest opinion on the race is against Clock Stopper. He is going to be overbet and I don\'t think he is as good as Strong Hope and Midas Eyes and probably won\'t run as good A Huevo.

>I may bet Midas Eyes to win, but more likely just play the 400k pick 4

Hey Jimbo just read your post and you said you weren\'t going to bet him either just play him in the pick four.

So lets recap, you narrowed the race down to four contenders who were the four favorites, had no opinion on the pace scenario, liked Strong Hope because he fires fresh which he didn\'t, liked A Huevo who was up the track, hated Clock Stopper who ran second and took a scarecrow opinion on you Midas Eyes win bet.

Why are you gloating

[jimbo66]

Silver Charm,

You are another guy on this board who has yet to post an opinion.  I said the race was hard, but I gave my \"odds line\" very specifically, which you left out.

35% Strong Hope
30% Midas Eyes

I said, I \"might\" bet Midas Eyes at 5-2, which is what I thought he would go off at. There would be marginal value in taking 5-2 on a horse I thought had a 30% chance to win. However, in case you are mathematically challenged, if I think a horse has a 30% chance of winning, then 7-2 is a very,very good price.  

Interesting that I saw NOTHING from you last week after the Travers.  Wasn\'t there something in that post you could find that was incorrect?

I don\'t know how you bet and don\'t really care, but handicapping to me is two parts.  I handicap the race beforehand and come up with my opinions.  But then I have to see the odds offered and figured out if my opinion has any \"value\" in the betting odds.  At 7-2 in the win pool, Midas Eyes was good value.  He was singled on 2/3 of my pick 4 tickets and was one of two with A Hueveo on the other third.  1 with 1/2/3/6 with 1/6/8/9 with 1/4/6/8/9.  It paid OK.

Are you on any chain on this board with an opinion or do you just parrot what Jerry says?

[Saddlecloth]

A Huevo,

this is a bit off of your topics, but isnt this \"mad genius\" more legend then reality with Dickenson?  Yes he is very good off the layoff.  But everyone points to Da Hoss, but that was a second off of a layoff.  A huevo last year was also not off the layoff.  His horses are terribly overyplayed off of these long layoffs.

I am playing against Tapit off of another long layoff (though it might be considered normal rest for Dickenson).

[miff]

Absolutely another overbet \"Reputation\" trainer living off legend.I\'m sure he\'s no genius, his results are not genius like.

[jimbo66]

Saddlecloth,

It is good that you switched topics!!  I already regret my previous post.  Posting my pick-4 bet after the fact was stupid.  Anybody could make up numbers.

Anyway, are you sure you are right about Da Hoss?  I could have sworn he won the Breeders Cup Mile, then didn\'t race again until the Breeder\'s Cup two years later, not \"second off the layoff\", but directly off the layoff.  But my memory could be wrong.  

If Tapit runs poorly, it probably isn\'t the layoff, he just might not be that fast.  The Wood really was a \"negative\" key race, in that none of the horses in that race have come back and run well since.  His other good race was the Laurel Futurity last year as a two year old.  

I personally hate betting races with Dickinson runners in them off the long layoff.  I can\'t bet them because they don\'t seem logical, but they really do step up often and win.  Similar to trying to bet against Jeff Mullins horses in California off the claim.  You can\'t beat him, but you can\'t  bet him either.

[miff]

Jimbo,

I have a similar problem being influenced by the things you mention. I have heard that the California Racing Officials have turned a blind eye to the obvious \"juicing\"by the arrogant AO Mullins.Just have to stay away from the races where you feel \"unsafe\"

[Saddlecloth]

no I am fairly certain dahoss had a one mile prep at belmont before the second breeders cup win.

[Saddlecloth]

While we are on mullins, I read that two weeks ago a letter was sent out about the continued testing at del mar and now at oak tree in regards to milshake testing.  in a matter of coincendence, or not, mullins has won one race since, at 2/5 yesterday.  

Mullins in a radio interview openely joked about how easy it is to cheat.  I hope they catch this guy and bust him forever, but I doubt it.

[BitPlayer]

I\'m curious how people playing in the win pool handle a horse like Midas Eyes.  He opened at 6/1. It was clear that (1) he was a good play at that price, and (2) he wasn\'t going to stay there.

When he started to drift down, I lost interest.  I\'ve had enough experiences where I bet a horse like that at 4/1 with 2 minutes to post, only to see him get hammered to 2/1 or 5/2 late, that I choose not to get involved any more.

I\'ve tried using exacta prices as a gauge, but that doesn\'t seem to work.  If the horse gets hammered, both the win and exacta pools are often affected.

Any suggestions?

[Saddlecloth]

Any suggestions?

ehorse.com

take the horse in the exchange when he opens up at 5/1 or so.

[TGJB]

A few things--

Yeah, that was interesting stuff coming out the last few days about the drugs. Worth watching.

Other than getting fixed odds, I don\'t know how to deal with the odds changes, now that batch betting is causing the big jumps. I threw away a $13 horse at Dmr the other day because I kept waiting for it to go down. Played pick 3\'s, did not hit.

I was involved in Da Hoss. He won an allowance at Colonial as a prep the second time we won the BC-- he did run at Belmont before the first one (second in the Kelso), a decision by Michael I bitterly fought. He then did a Pearl Harbor on me from the winner\'s cirle at the BC on national television.

Michael is very good at getting horses ready off layoffs, a very good trainer if you are a bettor and understand what he\'s doing (read the trainer profiles), very tough to deal with if he\'s training for you. He\'s a genius-- ask him.

Jim-- obviously, betting true overlays is the way to go. But save the gloating for races where you have a strong opinion, and it differs from others\', or the public\'s-- there is no reason to gloat simply because the one of several short priced horses you think are contenders happens to be the one the public underbets, and it wins. If they had made SH 3-1, would your opinion be wrong?

On the other hand, Derby 1592 gets some points... though I disagree with his larger thesis.

[derby1592]

Midas Eyes had higher than expected odds because he was coming in on short rest after an effort. Sheets money moves the odds in NY and I would guess most sheets players took a stand against Midas Eyes for that very reason.

Which brings me to Jimbo\'s good point that you want to play underbet horses not just likely winners in order to turn a profit. Good point but I disagree that you should do the two independently.

I look for horses that I am pretty sure will be underbet for a particular reason based on my experience with the betting public (e.g., horse coming off short rest in NY, etc.) If the eventual post time odds match my expectation, I bet with confidence since I believe there is value and I understand why.

However, if a horse goes off at higher odds than I had expected, I am not nearly so confident. I am worried that there may be some factor involved that I did not consider (if not for the short rest angle, I would have been worried that maybe Midas Eyes was unsound, etc.). I may still chase the odds but I am not nearly as confident in doing so.

Simply making an odds line and then betting into it blindly is probably a mistake unless you are very confident that your odds line is rock solid and you have not left out any important information. When there is a big difference between your odds line and the public odds line you have to ask why. If you don\'t have the answer, you need to factor that into your betting decision as yet another \"known unknown.\"

Chris

[jimbo66]

Chris,

Good points.  I didn\'t mean to imply in my post that I set expected odds and percentages and then just play overlays.  I don\'t do that.  I handicap the race, then decide the horses I like and \"MY\" expected result, taking into consideration many angles, beyers, pace scenario, trainer/jockey stats, distance and T-Graph numbers.  But I only BET the race IF I am getting reasonable value on my opinion.  Otherwise, I skip the race.  I don\'t switch to another opinion, just because of the price.  I am not saying this is the way everybody should bet, but it is the way I bet.  

In the Forego, the two horses that interested me were Midas Eyes and A Huevo.  Of course i considered Strong Hope a contender and also Clock Stopper, because they are fast horses.  As post got closer I lost some interest in A Huevo, because as a rule I rarely seem to guess right with the \"miracle\" trainers.  If Midas Eyes was 2-1, I would have skipped the race, not bet Clock Stopper or somebody else.  At 7-2, with my interest in A Huevo waning and my opinion against Clock Stopper and everybody else in the race besides Midas Eyes, it became an attractive win bet and single on most of my pick 4 tickets.  

I agree with Jerry though in that my original post here was NOT strongly worded.  Sometimes opinions evolve during the race day and bets/views can change a bit.

Good luck

I just got back from Saratoga. I had a prime wager on Midas Eyes. He paid for my vacation. IMO, that was as easy an overlay to find as you are ever going to get.

I\'ve been struggling all year, but I  feel the turn coming. :-)



Post Edited (09-06-04 17:48)