2021 Derby

[Ace]

With all these defections, I am currently at a total loss with respect to this Derby. Maybe this is the year, finally, to take a shot against the favorite?  Or maybe not.  There is probably a larger gap than normal between the best figure of the 20 and the worst. Hot Rod Charlie is my current pick, pending my look at TG.

[TGJB]

Just finished the figures for last weekend, and to me the Derby got a lot more interesting. Both in terms of likes and dislikes.

Short fields, changing track speeds and high winds. Throw in fewer horses firing— almost certainly due to no Lasix in graded races— and it’s taking me about twice as long to do big days as usual.

Santa Anita had a card over the weekend where the first one turn dirt race had all first time starters except for one horse that had started once. It was 3 hours til the next dirt sprint, and the track out there has been changing speeds daily. People ask me why I leave boxes.

[Ace]

I can imagine how tough it is; Known Agenda is also one who intrigues me; love the Curlin offspring and TAP might be making the proper adjustments. Can\'t see this one going off at huge odds maybe something like Always Dreaming in the 5=1 range.

[TGJB]

Much longer.

[Molesap]

Cannot wait for this year\'s figures and the seminar....

[bluechip21]

Interesting point on the SA Derby race. Very curious to see what sort of figure the winner comes back with, I assume it will be one of the quicker this derby season.

If my assumption is correct, there remains the unfortunate question we will have to deal with. Which is what to do with Sadler shipping east?

That aside, congrats to both Kendrick and Umberto for getting derby mounts. Could not be happier for the two of them.

[johnnym]

Ah we have life in the forum. Thanks Ace
Known Agenda 10-1, pretty high on my list currently.

[ajkreider]

Looking forward to the figs.

Can\'t make up my mind about the FD.  Slower than marginal older horses in a G3 isn\'t great and KA saved ground.  But they came home a lot faster, and the race was about 2 seconds faster than the filly race.  The winner in that G3 blew the doors off the field, so maybe a good number, but not too good to expect a bounce?

All in all, an Unknown Agenda.  Hey-oh! (Feel free to use that, with attribution)

[TGJB]

I mark a lot of races for review, and look at them after enough have run back. For what it’s worth, KA’s 2yo top got 3 points faster last night. (Only two turn race on the card, short field).

[ajkreider]

That seems like a very tough read.  If the comps are other two-year-olds, seems like you\'d have to discount the numbers based on the natural progression from two to three (in order to work backwards).  And that\'s kinda of guess, no?

[TGJB]

All figures are based on figure histories of the horses, so it’s a conclusion, not a guess. In a case like this, where it’s the only two turn race, there’s nothing else to work with.

In general, my view is that when in doubt it’s better to be conservative. In about 80% of reviews I don’t change anything, but when I do it usually results in giving out better numbers.

[Tavasco]

Trainer Sadler wins OP 7th on Thurs with Los Al shipper @ 7/1 thank you. Of course, it probably has no bearing on Sat Stakes.

[Kasept]

People did see Sadler win the Commonwealth Saturday with Flagstaff, yes? Or maybe the \'18 Classic at Churchill with Accelerate?

[P-Dub]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looking forward to the figs.
>
> Can\'t make up my mind about the FD.  Slower than
> marginal older horses in a G3 isn\'t great and KA
> saved ground.  But they came home a lot faster,
> and the race was about 2 seconds faster than the
> filly race.  The winner in that G3 blew the doors
> off the field, so maybe a good number, but not too
> good to expect a bounce?
>
> All in all, an Unknown Agenda.  Hey-oh! (Feel free
> to use that, with attribution)

Totally off topic.....

But Hey Oh reminded me of Ed McMahon.....last night I watched a documentary on Doc Severinson on PBS.  Dude is 90 and still going strong.

Most of us are old bastards, you\'ll enjoy it.