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Author Topic: Derby Picks  (Read 1191 times)

HP

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Derby Picks
« on: May 06, 2022, 10:21:28 AM »
I never do this but why not?  Pretty short

Top picks
Mo Donegal - is anyone happier about the Baffert mess than Todd Pletcher? The original White Mercedes? I think the cursed one hole may be good as he will definitely save ground and if anyone can steer him through the mess late it\'s Irad. Perfect sheet, I know most don\'t get new tops, especially TAP, but I like this one. I just do.

Smile Happy - I laugh when I see Runhappy but I like his running style here, he\'s fast enough to win and will be a fair/nice price.  

Zandon - Will not be in my exactas at a short price as I have a hard time believing Upstart = 1-1/4 miles? But he fits and has to be on tri/super tix.

Second tier
Charge It - I think he was a little green last out and will improve. Fair price+.

Messier/Taiba - Messier makes more sense to me. These horses are not really training like Baffert would train them? They are going to get bet. Could be 1-2 and could both be off the board, especially if they have company up front. I\'m seeing it\'s going to be clearing up Saturday so a drying out track? Could be tiring? Neither of these has ever seen a surface like they\'re going to see tomorrow. Not even close. Taiba shipped late. PITA. Plural.

Zosos/Cyberknife - These are probably going to be value. Both have a punchers chance of winning and much better chance of getting on the board.  

So I\'m bullish on Pletchers and Smile Happy and will use others underneath and will have a few tix without the Yakteens.  Pretty straightforward for me.  

Good luck to all!

HP
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jbelfior

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2022, 10:49:18 AM »
I like Pleasant Tap on the dam side of Smile Happy.

I also like his sheet. Was at Keenland for the Blue Grass and would like to think that was a tiring surface at the end of the day after snow, rain, wind, and finally sun. Nice middle move after being used early due to the dreaded 10 post. Probably needed the race.


Good Luck,
Joe B
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sekrah

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2022, 11:28:15 AM »
Looks very similar to what I have been thinking.

As usual, it comes down to pace - which we haven\'t seen recently since the points change.

If they can get out at a solid clip and get strung out, Mo Donegal is the most likely winner IMO. Again, I do not have great confidence in that scenario playing out.  Zanden is also a monster that will need a little pace up front.

If we get the most likely pace like the last several however, Messier looks tough. with Cyberknife, Zosos, Smile Happy definitely live to get a piece.

I\'ll probably have way too much wagered on the first, less likely scenario than I should and tear up my tickets as Messier rolls home.
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HP

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2022, 11:51:12 AM »
Yeah, the outside horses are going to have to work hard going into the first turn to get spots which may hurt them late. Messier got a great draw and if he takes off and rates well we\'ve seen that movie several times.
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fasteddy

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2022, 12:12:41 PM »
A changing of the guard, as far as sires are concerned. Only Uncle Mo has thrown a  Derby winner, and most of the other sires are 1st-3rd crops running. Tapit has never had Derby winner.

I will stay with Messier; he has the foundation, and I see a forward move here.
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confused

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2022, 02:50:07 PM »
I was also at Keeneland that day and Smile Happy looked like a carousel horse coming down the lane....he had NO answer to the winner.  Maybe underneath in the super.
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Michael D.

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2022, 04:48:20 PM »
two longshots, Tiz the Bomb and Crown Pride.

hook them up with Nest.
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johnnym

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2022, 07:46:28 AM »
Looks like the weather gods are horse racing fans after all.
I’m on the 6,10 wheeling them. My biggest concern is the 6 breaking.
Using the 3,5,7,8,12 heavily underneath.

GL to everyone today
Johnny M
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HP

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2022, 06:07:47 PM »
I don’t have it.
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jerry

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2022, 06:11:56 PM »
Help
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Tavasco

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2022, 06:12:22 PM »
I thought there were only twenty horses in the race.
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Roman

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2022, 06:14:24 PM »
Who is that? Didn\'t even see him in the post parade, then i thought that was the 2 horse, $30 k claimer!
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sekrah

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2022, 06:21:40 PM »
Buddy of mine had $1 ex 3/all, all/3. Got my balls stomped in today, but very happy for him. He\'s not a big $ player.
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trackjohn

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2022, 06:22:16 PM »
yup $30k claimer...
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P-Dub

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Re: Derby Picks
« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2022, 06:22:57 PM »
My buddy is in a suite inside the 1/8 pole. He\'s sent videos and pictures to make me feel just great here in the desert.

He had all/3/all for $2

$29,741.40

I\'m sitting here in my den and my little 4k weekend feels like chump change LOL
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P-Dub
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