Turf note

[phil123]

Fast rendition so no easy outs here but apparently the #1 may have a big time excuse for that last run - couldn\'t breathe.  Had throat surgery since.

https://breederscup.com/news/2023/shahryar-aims-to-rebound-in-breeders-cup-turf

On his best he\'s pretty good. Watching his Japan Cup run from last year, more than a little ground in there as well it kind of looks like.

[Tavasco]

Good eye! and 15/1 on a horse who is still in its prime while having earned $8.3M to date. It is also worth mentioning that for some of the top Japanese horses, it is not unusual to race only a few times a year.

But I am biased in favor of the Samurai. The Sunday Silence, Deep Impact look still impresses me. Thanks, Phil.

[jbelfior]

According to Ed DeRosa.....\"in 12f turf races at Santa Anita with at least 10 starters posts 1-4 are 0 for 32 since 2014; posts 1-7 are 1 for 56.\"

Hard to ignore if true.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[TGJB]

If I’ve got this right (and I’m still post seminar groggy), that’s a total of 8 races.

Those downhill races are so screwed up it’s hard to tell what anything means.

[Roman]

I am ignoring it completely, if you use that stat, you are throwing out 3 O\'Brien horses & Up To The Mark, not a big post position factor guy at 12 panels. Plenty of time to work out a trip if you got the horse.

[jbelfior]

I\'m not listening to Ed\'s stats, simply stating them. For the record, I think the 2 inside horses have a big shot.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[Roman]

No worries, best of luck to everyone.

[ajkreider]

Would be a bit more interesting to see a stat about how far back the winners were at, say, the 6F mark.  Inside positions could play a role there, but if it\'s closing into that stretch on firm turf that\'s the problem, that has other handicapping implications, especially for some of the foreign runners.

[Tavasco]

Could have won without being steadied helped the verticals nonetheless.