The Derby

[johnnym]

After a great day of racing yesterday at the gulf, spending time with Fairmont and a couple other non TG handicappers. As the FOY race came around the subject of the Kentucky derby came up.
Conversation led to, is the Kentucky Derby contributing to the destruction of the sport?
We discussed how there is a distinct possibility that a horse with only 2 races under his belt may make it into the starting gate.
Definitely a possibility a horse with 3 starts will make it into the starting gate.
Seems like the new training angle is to get a promising 3 year old Jack em up on whatever supplement program your said vet has. Squeeze everything you can out of your horse to PEAK on the first Saturday in May only to have ruin the horse and off to the breeding shed or the claiming ranks.
As much as we all love the Derby seems like a very troubling trend has developed in order to win just one race.

On a side note the FOY and the San Felipe winners both looked impressive.
Good Luck
John

[ajkreider]

The odds on Flood Zone were the most inexplicable I\'ve seen in a very long time. OK he came from sprinting against state breds, so maybe 8-1 or something. But he had the 2nd or 3rd best last out fig. 17-1 was absurd.

The two out west maybe the top 2 Derby prospects. The Beyer was a monster(108).

The Gotham and FOY winners will look better on TG than Beyer.  Looking at the Mindframe/Steal Sunshine race, the FOY should get something between a 0 and 1. They changed the runup for the 2-turn races though. It probably flatters the time but makes for a longer race.  Maybe a push.


Speaking of the FOY, looks like the first time in a while that it will produce more than just one or two good horses. Sovereignty ran big off the bench. River Thames very credible first time going two turns. Gate to Wire has a future at 7F.

Burnham Square will be an overlay next out. After looking like throwing in the towel at the top of the stretch, ran on again to close at the same pace as the winner. Would have had 3rd with 2 more strides, and 2nd with another 1/16th.

[toppled]

I\'m sure a lot of us hit with Flood Zone yesterday. The race was included in the weekly Byk sheets & at those odds he was a must play-especially 1st time Brad Cox.  I didn\'t hear the Franklin analysis on Byk this week, but when I Redboarded the analysis, he was the pick in the Gotham.  Also, the exacta was very haveable.
Thanks to all for the Byk weekly sheets.  Flood Zone made my day yesterday.

[ajkreider]

The NYRA guys were clueless on this.  Cox had another horse in the race who was one of the favorites - and he decides to ship another from Florida that\'s just off a restricted maiden win? No one does that unless they think the horse has a real chance.

[Silver Charm]

Nice one guys. I didnt have it and I didn\'t have Patch Adams last Saturday at Tampa. He could be a talented horse perhaps going 7F around one turn, but he looked like a mess last weekend. Wide. Erratic.

The day at CD he ran 120:3 in a 2YO Maiden race is not possible without something funky going on. The late money that came in sending him off at 1-2 indicates the race was a JOKE. And right there at Historic Churchill Downs no less. Where Baffert got 3 years for a cortisone creme.

How many 2YO last year ran a 1? I say none. People were chasing him at 4/5 in the Southwest 3rd. And 9/5 in Tampa Derby 4th. Glad you all caught the 17-1. Cox was at Gulfstream that day. It was a perfect set up....

[Silver Charm]

Johnny, Curlin had two starts and ran in the Derby. I think it gets into the Ownership. Or the group. Nothing against the Starlight bunch but they are in it to win some big races and flip them over for a solid Stallion Fee. They buy  12-15 a year for $500K-$750k per and just need ONE to hit.

Repole owns Fierceness himself. Just like Jess Jackson and Stonestreet with Curlin. Winstar needs Stallion revenue. So does Spendthrift. Small time groups that hit the Lottery with a real runner are going to Retire them early. Unfortunately about 80% of the people who own horses will retire and cash out early instead of racing them.

[johnnym]

Ahh Curlin one of my favorites.
I was at the Gulf the day he broke his maiden for a trainer I believe named Helen Pitts.
He left out of the 2 hole blew the turn coming home won by more than 10

Was quickly sold and turned over to the the Ass man
Now based in Arkansas, Curlin won the Rebel and the Arkansas derby.
Went of in the Derby after three starts as the second choice to only finish third behind Street Sense and Hard Spun.

As they say the rest is history, damn good horse.