Luxor Cafe

[ajkreider]

I\'ve tried to bet by a principle once articulated by a DRF writer - the first invader to win the Derby will win at my expense. But I will be tempted to break that this year with this colt.  

Looking forward to the probables figs, but this one checks some boxes. Won twice at 9F. Beat the Dubai 1 and 3 finishers one back. An American Pharoah out of More than Ready mare - breeding is good enough.

But mostly think he has the style to win. This year\'s edition of the Derby is chock full of runners that will come from well off the pace. This one won\'t lead them around but will be in the 2nd flight.  Had a huge burst while wide all the way in the race that got him in here.  Maybe needs clear air, but a wider draw puts him in the right spot. Will be a price.  

Interested in thoughts of others, of course.

[Tavasco]

I got 19/1 on him in Future Pool #6. If he comes home first that will make me 1 out of 5 picking Japanese bred horses to win the Ky Derby. To not realize the Japanese breeding program is a huge success qualifies one as a FlatWorlder.

[Roman]

There breeding program is the envy of the world. And pretty much built off of one horse, Sunday Silence.

[Fairmount1]

I watched all of his replays today.  

A few notes I\'ll share.  In his debut, and the only time I saw, he was rank fairly early and I think it was b/c he was in behind horses and hated the kickback.  The camera angle is not terrific so maybe others have different opinions. Thereafter, in that race and every race since, he had a wide trip.  He really likes making his move to the front in the turn.  

I have concerns about an inside draw.  He needs to be at least middle or outside.  He seems very intelligent with his ability to listen to his rider.  Visually his finish last time was impressive and he pounded Admire Daytona this year (as 2yo\'s they were near equal when they raced) who flattered him in UAE Derby.  Admire can go inside unlike this one it would seem but Admire is a cut below one would think but does continue on well usually to the wire.  

Luxor with a wide trip seems a tough sell for me to see in the win spot.  He can get a piece though and I have absolutely no idea what his price will be.

[Bauerx90]

will we get a TG figure for his last race?

[TGJB]

Best guess is it’s roughly the same as the one before it.

[TGJB]

We’re still looking at the race two back, if we change it we’ll send out an update to those who bought the Oaks/Derby package.

[Dudley2]

Year by year, horse by horse, the Derby is always unique of course. But exotically speaking, last year\'s Japan runner in the 3-horse photo was no fluke. What surprised me was the other- T.O.Password coming home fifth at 47-1 to explode the super high-5$$  As an exotics player- that\'s the ticket puzzle I\'m trying to piece together.

[Bauerx90]

i saw the update. was your guess on the last race based on the previous figure or this revised one?

[TGJB]

We’re pretty solid with foreign grass races, but our figures for young Japanese dirt horses should be taken with a grain of salt. I’ll leave it at that.