Derby Oaks Seminar Review

[nicely nicely]

Cut and paste the link to our 2025 Seminar.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUsjySoqG7xRrYItujHpvWPnnFw2VFiLR

[T Severini]

The result pretty much illustrates spot on analysis of the winner in the seminar. How that\'s possible before knowing the sloppy track is a head scratcher.

East Avenues failure to strike the lead is the most perplexing thing of all. Don\'t think he got closer than 4th on the pace. He didn\'t quit. He just never got in contention.

Congrats... I am looking forward to a dry track with these horses in the race.

One last thing... to my eye Citizen Bull knew he wanted to be paths off the rail and intentionally slammed over to get it. The more I see of Bobby the Weasel the more disdain sets in.

[Roman]

East Avenue rating is beyond perplexing.  Was throwing his head first time by. Reacting to the restraint?

Thought Sovereignty lost all chance when he clipped heels after the start. Looked like he was going to fall.

Impressive win, hope he runs in the Preakness.  Too bad the Belmont is at 10 furlongs, because he looked like he was just getting cranked up.
Triple Crown winner ? Might be.

[johnnym]

Solid work gents, congrats.
Race ran to form, the whole pick 5 sequence ran to form.
Winner received a 104 beyer. I’m assuming that’s a least a pair in the TG world.
Track played fair all day.
Congrats to all that hit.

[T Severini]

The top three TFig earners in the race finished 1-2-3
What more could a player ask? There you have it.

Two of them on \"repeated\" efforts. One an up and comer at good odds. Easy Peasy.

Not for me... Factored the 1-2-3 horses strongly and even the 4th horse before the quagmire induced me to do my one-good-thing. I lightened up. I did not bet any supers or hi-fives. Just got the feeling, things were not as I had factored.

I saw the little pancakes flipping up from the horses hooves in the Post Parade and rationalized hopefully, \" Perhaps the inside is holding more water\". As the sheen near the rail began to dissipate near race time, something inside was suggesting...\"Is fate messing with the program?\"

Equibase:

Quote

\"East Avenue - exchanged light contact with a rival leaving the gate. Stalked three wide chasing down the backstretch, then gave way while being brushed between rivals turning for home.\"

\"Burnham Square - Bumped with an inner foe at the start, settled in hand, tucked in to save ground within striking distance, was put in tight when the fucking Japanese horse that had no business in the race came in near the half mile marker, was bumped and checked losing position. Settled back into stride readily, altered out and weaved through traffic willingly on the second turn and through the lane.\"

Unquote

Did Neoequos give you a thrill at the top of the lane? Did watching Owen Almighty being the last pace horse standing fill you with admiration? There is no doubt the winner was strong at the end. Theres no doubt that Journalism and Baeza ran dead game. However, I have never experienced a Derby like this one before. This one hurts. I couldn\'t sleep last night. I kept seeing East Avenue oscillating and throwing his head. I kept seeing Franco looking over his shoulder trying to see where to steer his hydroplaning, loose from the road car. I kept seeing traffic and runs repeatedly split by it. I still can\'t believe these two horses didn\'t finish last and next to last with the ordeal they endured. I don\'t think I\'ve ever been the victim of Derby fate like this before. Nothing I have ever been involved in with horseracing remotely equals the missed opportunity from this race.

Nothing

East Avenue is not a Seattle Slew and Burnham Square is not a Secretariat, but Affirmed and Sham were not in the race.  

That may seem like hyperbole to my friends here, but I just want you to know that with some racing luck next time, this may yet not be over.

Also want to acknowledge the courtesy of the posters for giving me the benefit of the doubt on the one race I cashed. Won\'t forget that.

[TreadHead]

I would encourage you to go back and re-watch the beginning of that race, Burnham Square with and incredibly dirty and dangerous ride, broke squarely and was then taken on an immediate left hand turn that first results in trouble for both Journalism ( and Luxor (7), and then after disposing of them he continues undaunted further to the left where he puts Daytona (6) into American Promise (5).  Probably lucky someone wasn\'t seriously hurt.

Too often start of race antics like this are not placed under any scrutiny.  This was deliberate and intentional, clear as day, and it makes no sense why if the same thing happens in the stretch there is a DQ but out of the gate you can do whatever you want.

[T Severini]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I would encourage you to go back and re-watch the
> beginning of that race, Burnham Square with and
> incredibly dirty and dangerous ride, broke
> squarely and was then taken on an immediate left
> hand turn that first results in trouble for both
> Journalism ( and Luxor (7), and then after
> disposing of them he continues undaunted further
> to the left where he puts Daytona (6) into
> American Promise (5).  Probably lucky someone
> wasn\'t seriously hurt.
>
> Too often start of race antics like this are not
> placed under any scrutiny.  This was deliberate
> and intentional, clear as day, and it makes no
> sense why if the same thing happens in the stretch
> there is a DQ but out of the gate you can do
> whatever you want.

There was some aggressive race riding for sure. What did you think of Citizen Bull\'s intentional bear out to impede the three horses immediately outside of him?  That\'s where American Promise took the worst of momentum loss. He had to recover by going inside. The brushing in the scramble for position didn\'t break much momentum, granting Journalism was impacted some.

Discernable momentum was lost when the Japanese pretender decided the rail was the place to be. (It wasn\'t) It was in that sequence that the race complexion changed. Count the lengths lost in that sequence and how momentum was impeded thereafter also.

Tough luck, but Journalism was most definitely not the best horse yesterday and neither was the winner. Yesterday the best horse was Baeza. A seventeen dollar winner and fifty dollar exacta is wonderful, but fate intervened as it typically does. Its just that fate wiped out higher odds horses. That was the difference.

[Roman]

Has Flavien Prat ever finished out of the money with a derby mount?

[toppled]

I\'ve watched the replay numerous times now & one thing that I noticed is that before the 1st turn, both Rispoli & Alvarado had their horses saving ground on the inside.  Pretty masterful move by Junior to get himself on the inside early and even more remarkable, he was by himself with gaps in front & behind so that no horse could cause him any problems in the early going.  Both riders did a great job moving off the inside when they asked their horses for run.  Two world class riders on world class horses.  People tend to underrate Junior but think of this: He\'s Bill Mott\'s go to rider when just about every big name jockey would gladly like to be be in that position.

[Dudley2]

Brian Hernandez Jr. (Jockey, Burnham Square, sixth) – “He actually ran a really, really good race. I had a rough trip around going into the second turn because of Admire Daytona. He stopped pretty badly, and I had to steady pretty hard. We lost all momentum but then he ran on big down the lane just to be sixth.”

Yeah like you said T, the fucking Japanese horse!
Killed all chance. Killed my super if he only ran 4th
I will never know. Piss poor racing luck.

[Molesap]

I think he has had 8 starters - he is 8-1-1-4-1 - pretty good record even if the one win was by DQ.

[Roman]

Correct, and Citizen Bull taking a right out of the gate also. And they should be scrutinized,  just as much as a bump in the stretch does.  A foul is a foul,  shouldn\'t matter what part of the race it was committed in.

It also looks like the one hole still points right at the inner rail,  with the new one piece gate.  The one post is still a detriment with the new gate to me , it might not be as extreme as it was with the two starting gate configuration,  but the consequences of drawing the rail in a 20 horse race at. Churchill at 10 furlongs,  is the same as the old gate and pretty much an auto toss.

[T Severini]

I just hope we get another chance. Someone once said they are like fresh strawberries and that\'s certainly accurate.

Should I find myself wrong about this horse, I\'d like to be corrected.

Another chance probably won\'t come at near the same odds. But hopefully it doesn\'t come on a muddy track as well.

Dudley2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Brian Hernandez Jr. (Jockey, Burnham Square,
> sixth) – “He actually ran a really, really
> good race. I had a rough trip around going into
> the second turn because of Admire Daytona. He
> stopped pretty badly, and I had to steady pretty
> hard. We lost all momentum but then he ran on big
> down the lane just to be sixth.”
>
> Yeah like you said T, the fucking Japanese horse!
>
> Killed all chance. Killed my super if he only ran
> 4th
> I will never know. Piss poor racing luck.