Dope Handicapping

[asfufh]

If you are going to bet the BC races on the basis of how the so-called magic trainers\' horses do early(as JB suggests) rather than the figs , you shouldn\'t be betting at all. If you think the races are that crooked, you are a dope or an egomaniac to make any bets. Asfufh

[twoshoes]

A couple of guys work magic and their horses generate another level of performance all year long, yet they don\'t always seem to get the same numbers on the games biggest stage. I see nothing wrong with advice that would have you watch what is happening early in the card. Ignoring it seems pretty dopey to me. Why would you treat it any differently than any other factors you may watch for early? Sightseek tipped Frankel\'s hand (for instance)last year in the first race. That doesn\'t mean I think he\'s cheating the rest of the year - it does mean if his barn suddenly develops cancer I\'d like to be one of the first off the train.

[Boscar Obarra]

  Some folks are in denial, and the thought of having to consider  the possibility of cheating, disturbs their equalibrium.

  Its called a fools paradise.

[asfufh]

Boxcar, Somebody is in denial but it ain\'t me. There are 3 or 4 so-called magic trainers in many of the BC races. 6 out of  the 10 current top NA trainers have been labelled magic trainers on this board. It appears that if you were in a poker game where you \"knew\" 3 to 6 of the 10 players were cheating, you would still ante up and play.....now tell me again who\'s equilibrium is screwed up? Nutritionally yours,  Asfufh

[Boscar Obarra]

 Read Beyers piece on the Cup.

 http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=60379&subs=0&arc=0

[beyerguy]

What do cheating trainers have to do with still betting this game?  When the trainers cheat, they are cheating the other owners, not bettors.  Last time I checked, I can still bet on any trainer I want to bet on every day.

Your \"why play if they are cheating\" analogy doesn\'t hold any water.

[asfufh]

Beyerguy, And how do you decide if the alleged cheating trainer is juicing, stiffing, or doing nothing to his horse today?
Boxcar, Beyer\'s article underscores my point...he believes that BC day is the ONLY day that the major trainers can\'t cheat. But, you also believe as Beyer does but you keep betting the other 364 days??
If you really believe cheating is widespread in racing, the most effective way to get it changed is to stop betting.
Asfufh

[Boscar Obarra]

  Mr friend, if you were to abandon all the games where cheating is practiced, you\'d be left with playing tiddlywinks on the streetcorner with 7 year olds.

  And I\'m none too sure of that one either.

[marcus]

I really hope that racing handle\'s this illicit side show a little  better than they where able to safe guard a company like Auto Tote ( or who ever they were ) from hacker\'s going into their system and manipulating wagers in a pick 6 fix - just kidding ...   two seperate issue\'s ? I think not .
 Perhaps so long as the bettor is the only one getting hurt change may never come . However the balance of the racing industry including trainers owners and connections etc that run clean operations must somehow be feeling the pinch to an appreciable degree .

[beyerguy]

I couldn\'t help but notice that Cole Norman\'s favored entry ran last and next to last in the opening race at LS.  Were these horses \'under security watch\' as well?

[asfufh]

Boxcar, I agree if humans are involved in a game that involves betting, there\'s probably cheating going on. It\'s the level of cheating (perceived or real) that makes the difference in whether a prudent person should bet or not on a given game. To me it\'s crazy to try to take into account widespread cheating in your handicapping  rather than just quit betting on racing altogether. Today\'s BC races are a good example of how one\'s handicapping can get really screwed up by using the \"dope pattern approach\".
In any event, I\'ll bet you don\'t agree agree with me. Good luck. Asfufh