Does it ever go the other way?

[billk5300s]

Not one to follow conspiracies but it really seems like there is PP going on right in front of us.  Boscar pointed out a major late odds drop at Aqueduct in a race where the favorite was eased.

A simple question to all.  Can you remember any recent races where the bots were wrong and an exacta or a winner went way up in odds?  If not it’s hard to believe that they’re not PPing.  There are many skilled and well respected handicappers on this page.  When they bet they look for value.  Can anyone remember 2 horses at 6/1 running 1/2 with a 3/5 and a couple of 5/2’s off the board in a 10 horse field paying something crazy like $200 for a $2 exacta?

They can’t be right all the time……or can they?

[Mickeycharles]

Yesterday’s 8th at Aqueduct.  Winner paid $53 to win. Place horse paid $6.80 to place. Heavy favorite, no where to be found.
$1 exacta only paid $94!!  Years ago, it would have paid at least twice that.
We are fools to be wagering!!

[Boscar Obarra]

The correct answer is yes , they do get it wrong , all the time

  Unfortunately, not enough to really matter.  Net Net, they own the exacta pool  (tri/super) as well

[Fairmount1]

There has been some detailed, pertinent information posted on X/Twitter about the Aqu race.  Worth looking at it if you can.

After reading the exact numbers on that race, I wondered the exact same question.  When is it posted that the Exacta went from $94 to $344 in the final cycle on the winning combo.  It may have happened but I don\'t recall it.  

Back in July both handicapping a major track and a very small track, I saw and suspected PP.  I brought it up to a person who could potentially learn more in early August.  They were neutral but had races in that recent past in common with me that they also thought were questionable.  The following week, more serious observation lead to more suspicious and beyond suspicious wagers being noticed.  In late August, I discussed it again with this person who specifically asked to remain unidentified.  I can\'t say they were 100% convinced with what they learned but they are very, very close.  

This could all be fixed easily:  Close the pools at 2 minutes to post and watch it all stop.

It is beyond hard to reconcile the following two facts the industry wants to push upon the public:

1.  CAW\'s can put in 10k bets in literally one second and they are our preferred customers and their advantages are legitimate because they bet so much.  Their technology works well with our system to be able to be the Very, Very last flash of wagering every single time.

2.  Our pools don\'t reconcile and update until at least 30 seconds into the race sometimes longer and that\'s because our system is ancient.  Trust Us Bro, there isn\'t past posting.  

I want to point out one more fact.  The credible folks I know that believe there is past posting have made it clear to me they also are not certain who it is and that it may not be CAW\'s.  It simply could be someone else who has access or a computer nerd hacker.  It really doesn\'t matter who it is.  It doesn\'t matter even if it is or isn\'t happening.  Perception is Reality and it needs to stop.

All of you wanting to Boycott, forget it.  When they are scraping up 7k of Fairmount Retail money with a 30k wager in the win pool, a boycott won\'t do much.  Demanding a close of the pools at 2 minutes to post is the movement where you can level the field.  I don\'t mind playing against the CAW\'s altogether.  But more is seemingly going on now that makes playing the game seriously untenable.

[Boscar Obarra]

The folks that think its past posting are not credible, they  are just loud .

It\'s worse than past posting dude.  

They know.

lol,   pray to whatever deity  you believe in , that it is past posting, since that can be fixed.

how can you fix the CAW just knowing who to bet?

[BB]

Seems to me like the 2-minute thing only addresses the optics. If there is no past-posting, and the bots adjust by dropping $20K into the exacta pool with 120.001 seconds to post, what have you gained?

[Fairmount1]

Thanks for editing your post as that helps clear it up a touch.

If it is true that they \"know who to bet,\" why aren\'t they plunging in the win pool at 3 minutes to post at Aqu on that 25-1 shot?  B/c they don\'t want to reveal their hand?  Nah. . .

If they \"know who to bet\" why are some of these suspicious wagers not matching their horizontal wagers?  B/c they want to keep you thrown off on their real play?  Nah . . .

[Fairmount1]

BB,

As I said in a recent post, when there was a post drag and the button was hit to close wagering a touch early resulting in no bets for a while as the horses circled and loaded later than anticipated, the late wagers had zero suspicious wagers in the last cycle.  

This is the one solution that eliminates any and all suspicion about the late wagers.  If they continue to \"know who to bet\" so be it.  But the sharp money isn\'t going to be as sharp I can all but guarantee.

Boscar is correct that they have information from barns about bad favorites and so on and so forth.  But this is beyond that as well.  I don\'t buy people are just being \"loud\" about this. There is some well thought out information provided that makes one beyond curious.  

As for the BCBC, this was sort of brought up a while back and it will affect how that tournament plays out, but will the win wagering be closed at 2 minutes to post to CAW\'s at Del Mar with BC running the show or will they be allowed to bet til the bell (and Beyond)?  Imagine if an exacta or win price changes to that degree as the Aqu race and costs someone first place in BCBC.  I think we can say there\'s some damages involved enough to file a suit of note and maybe learn more.

[Boscar Obarra]

With all the noise about this , do you really think the tote companies would look past the CAW betting during the race ?

  You would have to assume they were co-conspirators  at the highest levels, or complete morons .

   I don\'t think either is likely.

   OCCAMS RAZOR

[Fairmount1]

United Tote owned by CDI and NYRA.

AmTote owned by Stronach.

Trustworthy folks when it comes to CAW\'s.  (For the uninformed:  Who owns Elite and Velocity?)

Maybe if they leave it open too long, they can just blame it on United Tote\'s Loose Wiring as they did at Thistledown a few years back LOL

Interesting that it requires Two Buttons according to this article to stop the wagering but again, just close the wagering at 2 minutes to post and what\'s the problem?  Short term, less money for a track until people adjust.  Long term, a more trustworthy product and we shall see if they can pound these exactas as hard without seeing the favorite break dead last and all the money swings to the 2nd choice Exactas who breaks on top.  (yes, this has happened but it must just be the CAW\'s are That good).
________________________

From 2021:

https://paulickreport.com/news/horseplayers-category/late-wagering-caused-by-wiring-malfunction-forces-refund-on-tuesday-race-at-thistledown

Wagers on Tuesday\'s sixth race at Thistledown was refunded when it was discovered that betting was not stopped until 52 seconds after the start, reports Horse Racing Nation.

According to Patrick Ellsworth, director of racing at Thistledown, betting is typically locked when judges press a button in their stand, and another button is pressed in the tote room. In this case, wires had become dislodged. When officials became aware of the issue, a manual override was engaged to stop betting

[Boscar Obarra]

Here\'s a question  for ya.  Just for fun

  9th AQU just now. Rice has a horse off the claim with decent form. (#1)   6 of last  6 in the money .  

  Now I dont know what it looks like on TG today, but if you were  the CAW , and were betting the winner (#11)  1/2 in the EXACTA  , would you completely TOSS this horse without some special insight ?

  Horse ran like it was carrying 200 LBS