Are Racehorses Getting Faster- Part One

[miff]

TWO SHOES,

I am a big Smarty fan and was also disappionted when he lost the Belmont,had he won, I would have scored decently.I read the article about his perfect confirmation from the expert, some time ago, and  believie in it\'s accuracy as to a horses confirmation.As you stated, my mind and a large majority of those following the game forever would reason(after seeing SEC perform)that Smarty\'s Belmont was good, but nowhere near SEC like.

A fair,but hypothetical, question I posted was \"Given the exact same trip that Smarty had in the Belmont, against the same field, how many lenghts would Sec have won by. On the flip side you would have to conclude that Birdstone would have also beaten SEC and that is without remote possibility,imo. JB apparently believes the latter since horses are now 10 lenghts faster(absolutely uncorroborated)

I\'m at the track alot and very often hear trainers and owners rave about a horse in their barn.Very often, they are wrong.The proof of a horses ability can ONLY be measured on the track and all the theory/science in the world is secondary to what the TELE-TIMER shows after adjustment for all the pertinents.

[twoshoes]

Miff -


I can\'t argue with that and wouldn\'t want to - I grew up with that image of that  stretch run and it\'s a major reason I\'ve become such a fan.



I also can\'t be sure Sham and Twice A Prince wouldn\'t be considered tomato cans when compared to Birdstone.

I respect your opinion.

Mark

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I was a huge Smarty fan. He got a little too close to a hot pace and ran into a horse that was better than many thought. It\'s too bad Birdstone went bad, because he would have made some waves at 10 marks in my opinion. I\'ve broken that Belmont down many times now. It was a helluva race. Injury/Track bias kept Birdman from showing better in the Classic.

When evaluating Secretariat\'s Belmont keep in mind he ran a 2:24 and that the next closest finisher ran approximately 2:30:1 on that scalding track. I think Sham was a good horse that got his ego messed up. He was no tomato can, but everyone else running in that Belmont ran like stiffs.

Secretariat is judged immortal on that Belmont Stakes and his Marlboro Challenge. (Another track record on a blistering surface at Belmont, \"07\" variant, second fastest Secretariat ever ran upon) In Ghostzapper\'s Woodward, he ran fractions very similiar to Secretariat\'s Marlboro. I\'m certain Belmont is slower now than it was that spring/summer in 1973.

I really don\'t know if TGJB has assigned Secretariat a T-Fig for that 1973 Belmont Stakes. All I can say is that its good for Secretariat he didn\'t face the quality of competition in his Belmont that we witnessed this year.

No evaluation of Big Red is complete without reference to the \"Three W\'s\". Of course I\'m referring to the Wood, Whitney and Woodward.

CtC



Post Edited (11-18-04 12:44)

Ctc,

I\'m not sure why you have such a high opinion of Birdstone.

He was the beneficiary of a perfect trip in the Belmont. Smarty staggered the last 3/16 and everyone that ran with him early totally collapsed. Clearly the distance and/or pace had an impact on the outcome and speed figures. The speed figure given to the race was disputed by many figure handicappers because of the impact of the high wind that day, pace, and the rarity of 12 furlong races (the only 2 turn race of the day).

The Travers field was a weak edition considering that 2 of the major contenders were trashed by many handicappers (incuding me) as not being suited to 10F and having beaten weak fields under ideal conditions coming into the race. Beating a chronic hanging deep closer like Cliff\'s Edge and the always overrated Eddington hardly qualifies one as a star. The figure for the Travers is also disputed. Beyer gave it a 108 and Logic Dictates (same scale) gave it a 104. Both those figures are well below the figure some other figure makers gave him. Considering the Travers was again the only 2 turn race of the day, the figures going in  were disputed, the pace was very slow, and the wind kicked up just prior to the race, it is not shock that various figure makers came to a different conclusion about that figure.

My own view is that the Travers was not a particularly good (quality) or fast race and the Breeder\'s Cup verified that.  

I\'m not saying Birdtown was horrible, but IMO he was wildly overbet in the BC because people did not understand that he won 2 important Grade I races because of circumtances and because the very fast figures given to him by some figure hadicappers were highly suspect.



Post Edited (11-18-04 14:40)

[jimbo66]

CtC,

I think you are way, way off on your view of this year\'s Belmont.  Forget about Secretariat and how he would have dominated this year\'s bunch, but this was this one of the weakest bunches of horses in year\'s in this year\'s crop, outside of Smarty, and the Belmont was probably the weakest of the races for 3-year olds.  Eddington?  Rock Hard Ten?  Gimme a break.  

So, you can\'t wait to bet against Ghostzapper next year, but you think Birdstone was the second coming.  Interesting.

Well, sometimes it can be fun to contrarian, but you are pretty far out there.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:

> I\'m not saying Birdtown was horrible, but IMO he was wildly
> overbet in the BC because people did not understand that he won
> 2 important Grade I races because of circumtances and because
> the very fast figures given to him by some figure hadicappers
> were highly suspect.

Apparently, you are of the opinion that Birdstone ran his race in the Classic. I am not.

Jimbo66 Wrote:

CtC,

>I think you are way, way off on your view of this year\'s Belmont. Forget about Secretariat and how he would have dominated this year\'s bunch.

I NEVER said Secretariat would have dominated the 2004 Belmont.

>but this was this one of the weakest bunches of horses in year\'s in this year\'s crop, outside of Smarty.

I rated Lion Heart, Birdstone and TCE as better horses than many. I believe this was a strong crop. Certainly much stronger than the FuPeg, Red Bullet, Commendable crop. (until Aptitude found the secret)
>And the Belmont was probably the weakest of the races for 3-year olds. Eddington? Rock Hard Ten? Gimme a break.

Eddington and Rock Hard still have potential, but I never rated them as cream.

>So, you can\'t wait to bet against Ghostzapper next year, but you think Birdstone was the second coming.

NEVER said Birdstone was the second coming, though I think Secretariat would have had fits with him.

>Well, sometimes it can be fun to contrarian, but you are pretty far out there.

Depends upon your perspective I guess. I\'ve made figures and I know how to evaluate a card. We\'ll see about Ghostzapper.

CtC



Post Edited (11-18-04 22:05)

[jimbo66]

CtC,

Would love to know your criteria for rating horses and this year\'s crop in particular.  Birdstone, TCE and Lion Heart.  Decent horse, underachiever and good miler.

How you can even think of comparing those three horses with Fu Peg class is really beyond me.  

The Breeders Cup Classic the year FuPeg was 3, was SWEPT by 3 year olds.  Tiznow won it, Giant\'s Causeway 2nd and Captain Steve 3rd.  Albert the Great, another 3 year old, who dominated older horses in the Suburban, was 4th.  

When the 3 year olds wipe out the older horses, that means something.  Has any 3 year old dirt stakes horse even ran well against older horses yet this year?

[Michael D.]

jimbo,
if i could only get a bet down on your fupeg crop against CtC\'s in a 10f race. fupeg, tiznow, giant, and albert against smarty, TCE, BS, and lionheart. how many total lengths would we have to give in vegas? 20 maybe?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I neglected the late developing Tiznow. You\'re right about him. He was a good one. As was Albert. I think Captain Steve generally was well spotted. I\'m not gonna rate Giant\'s Causeway on one close 2nd. To my knowledge it was the only time he ran in this country.

Albert and Tiznow had big numbers and were consistent. We\'ll never know but I think distance would be an issue. I\'d favor the 2004 crop in any race to 9 marks. At 10 I\'d have to look close at the 1997 crop, but none of them would handle Smarty at 10. It would have been a laugh.

CtC



Post Edited (11-18-04 22:33)

[Michael D.]

yea, how did the captain win all that money?? didn\'t he win the dubai world cup? i think he also beat albert in the donn. baffert really beat the s..t out of that guy. i was never a big fan of his, i just hope he is still alive.

[Michael D.]

just one guy\'s opinion: Tiz would have nosed out smarty at the wire going 10f. two great animals.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tiz never would have even sniffed. No Chance to get game.

[Michael D.]

see the way smarty shortenend stride in the final furlong while being chased by birdstone, well it would have been a hell of a lot worse if he had tried to go after Tiz when Tiz ran 1:59 and change in the La super derby (or one of those La races, think Tiz got a positive \".5\" for that run from TG???).......seriously, i became a big smarty fan, a brilliant race horse,  but Tiz was one of my favorites.



Post Edited (11-19-04 09:03)

[twoshoes]

Would have been interesting if Tiz could look him in the eye - game as hell.

[miff]

CtC,

You think that Birdstone would have given SEC \"FITS\".Can I have some of that smoke too, bro?