Visualize Whirled Peas

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Its funny how with 20 years of handicapping knowledge, sometimes your experience helps, sometimes it doesn\'t. When I\'m handicapping my best, I see the running positions of every horse in the race. Not only where they finish, but where they start and where they are at each mark in the race. I\'ve won many races in the past where the race merely played out as I\'d seen it in my mind\'s eye a dozen times before. The DeFrancis was very close to how I visualized the way it would run. I was wrong about Abbo\'s pace impact, but everything else went to form. And then theres a race like the Breeders Cup Classic, to keep you humble. I did have the 2nd-4th horses in that race.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/60961.html

CtC

[Michael D.]

i think an understanding of the entire race, as opposed to focusing on one or two horses, is the key to cashing. if you can see how the pace will develop, and where each horse will be throughout (approximately), the odds of getting some money back are much greater. example, in yesterday\'s 9th at aqu, i thought the velazquez mount would be tracking the pletcher speedball, a length or so off the pace, and win the race in the stretch. well, JR took his mount back (or the trainer just didn\'t train any speed into him), and the horse came running too late. i also misjudged where the four horse would be throughout the race. these misjudgements cost me the race, and a nice 5 out 6 pk6 payoff ($6g with the 4, prob $3g or $4g with the 9). i also misjudged the pace in the 8th. i didn\'t think the assmussen horse, carrying top weight of 122, would get an easy lead. if i had judged that better, i would have used that horse in the pk6.



Post Edited (11-22-04 20:47)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think the key to REALLY taking advantage of TGraph, is mastery of pace. A figure is a figure, but its my belief (similar to Classhandicapper) that pace alters figures. With TGraph you obviously have the Gold Standard. The only reason I don\'t utilize TGraph is because I have a routine I\'ve developed for going over past performances that takes all my time. I just don\'t have time to work TGraph pattern analysis into the way I handicap. I\'m also a good judge on my own of how fast a horse ran, but I do utilize info I sneak away with from T-Graph to confirm or disprove my theories about how fast particular races were, especially when there are different figure makers saying different things and you are confused about which horse you are gonna put your money on. As always, the key is not \"How fast they were\", its \"how fast will they be today\". But to get to the second part of the question. You  have to know where you stand in regard to the first.

CtC



Post Edited (11-22-04 18:02)

[Tony]

CTC,

I totally agree. I do have a lot of respect for Jerry\'s fig\'s but do not use them on a regular basis. My memorable scores usually come from high priced horses loose on the lead or trainer switches. Let\'s face it, everyone has speed figs and for the most part there\'s not much value in them.

[Tony]

Also,

I have been trying to master condition handicapping at smaller tracks. Very interesting stuff when you have multiple classes within a class.

It\'s very interesting for me to read this kind of stuff because I am probably the biggest or second biggest proponent of pace as a handicapping factor around here but I don\'t often use it in the same way as is being suggested here.

IMO, there\'s no doubt at all that how a race develops (pace and position) impacts the outcome. However, I think it\'s very difficult to extract incremental wagering value by trying to predict how a race will develop beforehand. If the probable race development is very obvious, it often gets built right into the odds and if it\'s not obvious it\'s a guessing game. It\'s fun to be right, but if it\'s built into the price there\'s no extra money to be made.

IMO, if anything, there is actually often betting value gained by going against the convenional wisdom. Races often don\'t develop the way everyone thinks they will because smart jocks, trainers, and owners can read the DRF also. So they adjust their strategies. Also, horses sometimes don\'t break well, some jocks are dumb, etc... and that changes everything.

For example: Everyone and their brother thought War Emblem was going to get in a duel in the Derby. That\'s at least partly why he went off at such a long price despite fast speed figures. However, \"likely\" is not equal to \"certain\" and IMO a lot of very smart people totally threw him out on the expectation of a duel that never materialized. (thank you for that :-)

I think the real value of race development and pace analysis comes by analyzing the results and understanding who was helped or hindered by the way the race developed and is therefore either better or worse than their speed figures indicate. Then you want to remember that for next time.

IMO, \"WAY\" too many people take figures at face value and then interpret form cycles and ability without really understanding how well the horses have been running and in what dirction they are really heading.



Post Edited (11-22-04 15:38)

Tony,

>I have been trying to master condition handicapping at smaller tracks. Very interesting stuff when you have multiple classes within a class.<

I don\'t have any experience at the smaller tracks but I always thought that would be a great way to find hidden value. Much of it is probably built into the speed figures horses are earning, but given 2 horses with very similar figures I\'d much rather have the one earning those figures against tougher competition. If it\'s not obvious which one earned them against tougher, there\'s got to be value there.

[Michael D.]

i go as far as to develop a pace # for each race, and write it at the top of my racing form before i handicap any race. i have seen too many races with extremely slow paces, with jocks still rating their horse well behind the leader (especially in turf races). some jocks (JR, bailey), don\'t hurt you as much in these slow paces races, but some jocks (samyn, santos), will still rate their horses well off the pace, regardless of how fast they are going. i hold the opinion that many horses are not explosive enough to make up for unused energy in the final eighth or quarter of a mile of a race (i know TGJB disagrees with this), so i pay very close attention to pace and jocks.



Post Edited (11-22-04 20:54)

Michael,

>I hold the opinion that many horses are not explosive enough to make up for unused energy in the final eighth or quarter of a mile of a race <

I agree completely.

I think this might actually be a valuable insight because most people don\'t look at it.

Some closers are very even-paced plodders that don\'t have explosive acceleration. If the leader or another closer has sprint type brilliance he might just burst away from the even paced horses and draw off.

You definitely see this most often on turf.  

So even though we can be fairly sure slow paces hurt deep closers, they don\'t hurt all closers equally. Those blessed with a high turn of foot are hurt less. It\'s very tough to figure out what category a horse falls into, but it\'s still worth knowing that two horses of similar overall ability may not be equal in sub abilities.

I\'m not that great handicapping turf, but I think this is why so many turf handicappers like to look at closing last 1/4, 3/16, and 1/8. There\'s more slow paces, so late brilliance is a factor more often. Do you look at closing times?



Post Edited (11-22-04 16:24)

[Michael D.]

i do my own pace figures. i look at the fractional times, look at the final time, then look at the TG figs, and get a pretty good idea of how fast the track was for that race. i then look at where each horse was at the points of call, and come up with a pace fig. as for you question about late fractions, i pay very close attention to final eighth and quarter fractions. if i see a horse run a 6f race in 1:11, with a final eighth in :13.2 under a hard drive, and i see another run in 1:11 with a final eighth in :11.4, i give the latter a much better chance of improving next out (assuming another sprint, and equal timing between races). also, i think a lot of handicappers make the mistake of watching a horse that looks visually impressive while closing into a collapsing race, then assume that horse had energy to spare and will run better next out. i think you have to look at the fractions, and try to determine which horses actually closed very fast, and which ones were simply picking off dying horses.

> and i see another run in 1:11 with a final eighth in :11.4, <

I also love it when a horse ran a sub 12 last 1/8 or sub 24 last 1/4. They can usually run a faster final figure given a better pace scenario.

[Michael D.]

in general ClassH, when i see a turf race where the pace looks to be very slow, i kind of picture the race in my handicapping mind as shorter than it actually is. since part of the race might be wasted while the horses just lope along, i might handicap a 10f race like a 9f race. i admit, this sounds like a crazy concept, but i have seen many front running horses who lope along on a slow pace win 10f races, and beat other closing type horses with faster 10f figs (sometimes horses who have run right by them in past 10f races with faster paces).



Post Edited (11-22-04 17:09)

[Michael D.]

very true about the sub :12 and sub :24 final fractions. it\'s a matter, as you say, of determining which horses have the turn of foot to make up a lot ot time in the late stages (in which case pace is not as important), and which horses are more plodding types, who, after running very slow early on, aren\'t explosive enough to get there (taking into account the jockey angle helps me here as well)....... watching replays helps me a lot in making this distinction.



Post Edited (11-22-04 17:08)

[Michael D.]

class,
back to our 1:11 and sub :12 final fraction example...of course there are times when a horse goes out in 21 and and 44 and runs a slow final 1/8, then improves next out. usually it\'s because the trainer and jock do a better job of teaching the horse to relax a bit early. i still think, however, as a general rule, that the horse who closes in :11.4 has a better chance of improving next out.



Post Edited (11-22-04 17:25)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tony wrote:

> CTC,
>
> I totally agree. I do have a lot of respect for Jerry\'s fig\'s
> but do not use them on a regular basis. My memorable scores
> usually come from high priced horses loose on the lead or
> trainer switches. Let\'s face it, everyone has speed figs and
> for the most part there\'s not much value in them.
>

Tony, let me clarify: How fast they will run is dependant on many things, first and foremost among them \"how fast have they run.\"

CtC