Visualize Whirled Peas

[derby1592]

Yeah, go ahead and rub that one in again 3 years later.

If PD (my key) had just gotten up for second I still would have had a nice score...

(woulda, coulda, shoulda......

Chris

[TGJB]

You know, it\'s funny this comes up now. We\'re just going through possible ROTWs, and there are a number of horses back this weekfrom the BC who got big numbers concealed by wide trips (Blackdoun and Musical Chimes ran lifetime tops, and Kela,  got a better figure than the winner). The ground loss component in big fields is big, and usually not factored in enough.

[Michael D.]

where have you been? last i heard, you were in the process of winning a big handicapping contest. will you be looking at any of the races this w/e?

TGJB,

>The ground loss component in big fields is big, and usually not factored in enough.>

I like the ones where it is clear to me the wide trip had more to do with misfortune than running style. Sometimes in a 2 turn route a pace presser will get hung out 4 wide on the first turn and then lose more ground on the second turn. In those cases you know that not only is the horse losing ground, but it is also being used pretty hard to keep close to the pace setters on the inside.

I also like when there\'s a 3 way duel in fast frations on the front end and the outside most horse puts away the other two (assuming there\'s no bias involved). Then, not only is he losing ground to the finish, but his fractions should also be adjusted for the ground loss. That kind of trip is often brutal and leads to big improvement next time out.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Wide is definitely an issue, unless inside is not the place to be. And even then the four path is better than the five. It\'s been said a thousand times by the TGraph crew, if its been said once. Being in the wrong place at the wrong time kills horses. It killed Birdstone in both his Kentucky races and even convinced Bailey Birdy wasn\'t a good horse.

Though its not always the place to be a bettor favors young brave riders not afraid of the rail, but you don\'t find many old guys on the heels of the pace setters tight on the rail.

Personally, I\'d like every horse race a drag straight ahead. Stay in your lane, no nascar turns. Let it all hang out. Does anyone think Easy Goer ever would have been beat racing like that?

CtC



Post Edited (11-23-04 21:27)

[kev]

Rag\'s number before the derby: 11 9 3
TG: 8.1 8.3 10 1 1
Beyer: 17 15 16 11 5
DRF+Var.: 9 10 13 7 6