Hollywood Futurity

[twoshoes]

CTC,
 
One thing I forgot to note above - Shirreffs is going well of late and getting a high percentage of pairs and tops. He also gets 40% new tops from 2yo\'s this time of year according to the figure based patterns (albeit from a relatively small sample.) The biggest question is even if he does fire will it be enough? Price will dictate that answer as to whether or not it\'s worth as play.

[TGJB]

There are a number of considerations in picking ROTW, including fan interest (we\'re trying to attract new people) and location-- we haven\'t done a California race for a while. Also, we have to pick the race early in the week off probables in order to meet the ad deadline for the DRF.

[jimbo66]

PA ran miserable in the BC, don\'t know if blinkers makes a difference, but willing to bet against.  Don\'t like Wilko, as it seems the BC race collapsed to me (my own view, as it doesn\'t seem to say so in the T-Graph figures, Wilko got a nice figure).  HAve to bet against Declan\'s Moon as the even money or so favorite, trying two turns, even though he is bred for it.  IF the price is right, I think you can make a case that Bushwacker could get loose on the lead here.  Would like Bushwacker more if PA weren\'t adding blinkers, but I still think he is quite a bit quicker.  I see the possibility where PA and DEclan are trying to wrestle for position behind Bushwacker and Rene Douglas works out a reasonable pace up front.  His breeding doesn\'t \"scream\" two turns, but at 7-1 or more, (which seems likely), I will take a shot on him.   Wouldn\'t bet him at Churchill or Belmont, but on a Hollywood strip which has been kind to speed lately, he could be a value play.

Good luck

[TGJB]

Normally I don\'t like to discuss races we are charging for (for better or worse), but Alan and I both discussed the race on different radio shows today, so...

I agree with you that the approach should center around the vulnerability of the fast favorites-- while there is a good chance one and maybe two will fire, my approach is to look for a solid horse who will fire and be a price. Giacomo has 2 solid 2 turn figures that make him clearly faster than any but the top 3, isn\'t shipping, and actually has some blue sky-- he\'s only run three times, and the first one doesn\'t really count, so he could improve. Additionally, he\'s completely concealed, coming off a third in a nw1x. Win bet, protect under the fast ones.

[Michael D.]

nice posts on giacomo guys, a very good stab at the odds. DM was tugging all the way. they have to teach this horse how to rate. i will stick strongly with this guy through his quest for the TC though. they finished in just over :06 for final half furlong, DC was not tiring, giac just ran very well. DC is bred to run for miles and miles, as soon as they teach him how to relax a bit, i think he has a chance of heading into the KD undefeated. again though, well done taking a shot with giac, i hope you guys cashed on the exacta....



Post Edited (12-18-04 20:08)

[Michael D.]

and now we know why JR dumped PA for AA. PA is clearly a one turn horse (could be a great one at that).

[TGJB]

One comment about Declan\'s Moon-- it\'s not only a question of ability of the horse. How many Ellis horses have we seen that showed ability early in their careers, and didn\'t go on? He is very hard on them-- very few end up developing into sound horses that can stand a campaign.

The second finisher is a little interesting...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Two and Jerry,

Very nice analysis. I figure that cashing at about 5-1, even with the spreading. Good Work.

ctc



Post Edited (12-18-04 19:34)

[Michael D.]

in my opinion, the second place finisher got the perfect setup, and ran very well. i do not like his chances going much longer in the big ones however, as he will most likely be forced to run wide in big fields. i do not think he is all that well bred to run much longer either. declan has nice tactical speed that needs to be harnessed, but will be used very effectively in the big races..... again though jerry, you handicapped that race very nicely.

[TGJB]

I just bet him to win and used him for second, which meant I needed that photo, and still only got 3-1. Lousy price on that exacta.

And Michael, I agree with you about the second finisher in big fields-- if Smith stays on him.

[Michael D.]

ctc,
don\'t mean to be a grinch here, but two said he makes a career betting against horses like DM, and tossed the horse completely.

[twoshoes]

Thanks Grinch - and at those odds my career has been and will continue. Another prime example of a horse I rated no better than 3/1 that beat me at horrible odds. I\'ll see him again another day - or another one like him. You ducked - thanks for the redboard.

[Silver Charm]

TGJB wrote,

>Normally I don\'t like to discuss races we are charging for (for better or worse), but Alan and I both discussed the race on different radio shows today, so...

You did a Radio Show, I thought those types of things caused stress, or at least so I heard. (lol)

Also there are several good handicappers on this Board (not me) but the real EF Hutton is Derby 1592.

[Michael D.]

two,
no duck, just no bet on a bad race. my only pre-race comment was that DM is my top two yr old horse for next year, obviously meaning i though he was getting the two turns. the odds were very low on DM, i didn\'t think it was a betting race. i have already posted on about four or five races today. i was simply correcting a post from ctc that was completely incorrect, sorry you were in the middle (and this is definitely my last post on the subject, sorry for cluttering the board).



Post Edited (12-18-04 20:28)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Two,

Hope you reconsidered with DeClan\'s atop Giacomo. Losing is easy to do in this game, even when you have made some very solid think work.

Of the three favorites, I really felt PA was the most vunerable and that Wilko was best, if he ran his race. I\'m not so sure he didn\'t run his race, which opens up alot issues. Wilko was as close or closer than I could have hoped, so he sure seemed to have been ready to go. The time was good. There was a 1:20 7mark and a 1:02, 5.5 mark race...lol (Gonna defer to TGraph here, that track bothers me.) Wilko just got nipped by a horse that in all likelihood improved. I think the top three are all pleased with their horses efforts. DeClan\'s remains undefeated and is the Two Year Old Champion. Other than that I\'m not sure much was determined today, other than the results, on their face, don\'t support my contention that wide was very bad on B.C. day and at first blush they lend further credence to TGraph\'s B.C. Numbers.

Oh, one other thing was validated. Hollywood Park would make an ideal mobile home park.

CtC