Author Topic: Ouch  (Read 1025 times)

TGJB

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Ouch
« on: December 26, 2004, 07:19:33 PM »
Given the degree of trouble, the timing of it (little time to recover), and how close he came anyway, I have to believe that business 100 yards out cost HA the race. While the ROTW is a teaching tool, some of us took the 21-1.

TGJB

Michael D.

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2004, 07:36:32 PM »
after mass media cut off harvard avenue, MM got bothered himself. who knows who was best there, but i couldn\'t use RHT on top at 2-1, as brilliant as stevens is. HA was an excellent use at 21-1 though, could have easily been HA and MM on top (which would have worked well for you guys).



Post Edited (12-26-04 19:41)

Saddlecloth

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2004, 07:52:11 PM »
JB,

Excellent analysis.

question for you.  I heard several of the super socal trainers are on the move, mitchell and mullins.  coincedence?  

Is this going to be a hard meet to handicap?  if the \"norms\" are not in the game its going to be like the old fashioned days, well we can dream right?

Saddlecloth

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2004, 07:53:00 PM »
well perfect moon started freaking out when he went to the whip and shifted all over the place, had to cost him a bit as well



Post Edited (12-26-04 20:21)

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2004, 08:17:27 PM »
It\'s a shame your horse had a bit of trouble at 21-1. He might have won. He was a bit fortunate to not lose as much ground as he often does, but he ran very well.  

I thought this was a great prep for RHT. He couldn\'t have been wound up even close to 100%. 7F can\'t be his best distance and he did well to come from last against an average/moderate pace. He may be fun to watch this year.

Saddlecloth

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2004, 08:21:52 PM »
why cant 7 furlongs be his best distance?  he is 2-2 at it ( :

spa

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2004, 08:39:55 PM »
A BIT OF TROUBLE??? Harvard was much the best and it was a great handicapper who picked him!!!! At 20-1, I went back and played a show bet.


jimbo66

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #7 on: December 26, 2004, 08:42:24 PM »
Nice call. Bad break.

Tough when you uncover a 21-1 shot and run into traffic trouble.  

The \"overview\" was a good addition this week and I doubt anybody will throw fruit on this one!

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2004, 08:32:42 AM »
>why cant 7 furlongs be his best distance? he is 2-2 at it ( :<

Usually when they start their careers at 7F and immediately stretch out it\'s a pretty good indication that the barn thinks they want a route. Plus he\'s such a monster, it\'s hard for me believe he won\'t do better stalking the slower paces of routes than coming from the clouds going short. Usually you can tell by the numbers, but he\'s too lightly raced and likely to get better to tell anything yet.

Saddlecloth

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2004, 10:56:28 AM »
I agree, was just having some fun with RHT.

The race fell apart  yesterday and RHT got a dream trip, he probably should have finished a very credible 4th.  That being said, with Mandellas tutalige I could see this horse as the dominant force out in a very weak division.

xichibanx

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2004, 11:21:12 AM »
Mullins isn\'t leaving.  His owners didn\'t want to run in Florida so he will be in So Cal.  He gave his stalls back he got at Palm Meadows

Mitchell is supposed to send some to GP.  Don\'t know if he will.

xichibanx

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2004, 12:17:49 PM »
>I could see this horse as the dominant force out in a very weak division.<

He looked really good to me late in the race (like he had another gear if he needed it). That\'s the same thing I saw in his first two starts. It made me think he was going to be very good by the end of the year. He\'s had two debacles. The Belmont when he was used early for no good reason chasing Smarty in a fast pace (Smarty was freaky that day in defeat) and then at Monmouth when he didn\'t even lift a hoof against an overrated Lion Heart.  

I think he\'s going to have some fun early in the new year, but Ghostzapper will be waiting with a -6 or something like it (or will we be up to -8s this year). :-)

Saddlecloth

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2004, 02:12:06 PM »
well ghostzapper is a special horse but will be confined to the east coast, and there are several nice races for RHT out west.

really given how he was rushed RHT performed admirally.  now he gets the huge trainer upgrade, and I cant think of a rosier picture for an owner

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2004, 02:23:07 PM »
Yep. Plus Ghost will probably only show up for 3-4 races. :-)

TGJB

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Re: Ouch
« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2004, 02:34:24 PM »
Saddle-- Steve Allday was originally Paulson\'s vet, and went to Byrne after Paulson died, and several trainers have had their best days while training for that outfit (De Seroux, for example). Mandella is a great trainer, but it remains to be seen whether that\'s a move up under the circumstances-- he\'s one guy who doesn\'t want any help. I\'m guessing RHT did not run a big number this time, we\'ll see how it goes.

Jimbo-- Yeah, no fruit, and there might have been some without the summary-- RHT was an underlay. This also goes to show how different it is when you discuss a race, or just list your preferences as Friedman does, compared to making definitive plays where you can be held accountable. I came out of ROTW looking good-- but our play in the analysis, a win bet on HA and a box with MM, was a loser (I myself just bet win and under MM). A couple of weeks ago Friedman analyzed a race, listing Rare Gift as the key. It was a good read on a slow horse to go forward, and he was given a lot of credit. But I would be very surprised if Len made money, and he might have lost everything he bet-- the filly went off much shorter than she figured to, so he might not have bet to win, and the second finisher was his first throwout, at a short price.

It\'s much tougher to look good when people have a chance to keep score.

TGJB