Breeding B.S.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

These syndicate Stud Farms absolutely kill me with their hyperbole and opportunism. I\'ll never get over Storm Cat\'s stud fee going to 500K (Horses like Mr. Prospector and Danzig topped out at about 200K or so) The latest is Coolmoore bumping FuPig\'s fee to 150K on the accomplishments of 3 horses and a wannabe.

Heres FuPigs complete progeny report. Decide for yourself if a stud fee increase is truly warranted:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?h=fusaichi+pegasus&g=5&query_type=progeny&search_bar=progeny&done=y&inbred=Standard&x2=n&username=&password=&x=0&y=0

Killenaule (200K) - Has won a couple of Stakes and Finished 3rd in a Grade II. Dam was a Santa Anita Oaks winner

Roman Ruler (330K) - Won two Grade II\'s. Dam is unaccomplished, unremarkable

South Bay Cove (250K) Apparently on shelf since August. Won two Stakes. Dam is a Canadian Juvenile Champion.

Fusaichi Samurai - 6.5 mark maiden winner. Cost 4.5 million at two year old in training sale. Ran a 10 second flat eighth in sale. Dam unraced, unremarkable, speed oriented pedigree. Grand Dam has a Graded Stakes winner.

First Crop, three stakes winners (They say he has five, I can\'t find the other two). at a 100K stud fee and getting some of the very best mares, did you expect him to get a couple/few stakes winners? I did. I guess he exceeded Coolmoores expectations.

Give me those same mares and let me breed them to my choice of stallions for 100k or less and I bet I get a better horse. Give me his full book of mares and I guarantee it.

CtC



Post Edited (01-04-05 09:16)

[Michael D.]

CtC,
i understand your point completely, i would much prefer other sires for the price. one thing though.... in your scenerio, when you take those mares to stallions other than storm cat, what are the odds that you will get a horse that himself becomes a leading sire, and thus a very valuable commodity? look through the DRF, and take notice of how many horses are out of storm cat sires, and how many horses have storm cat blood in them. the breeding industry has pushed the fee so high because the odds of getting a horse that will eventually stand as a sire for $15g for ten years are quite high when compared with other stallions.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think you\'re talking about what Wayne Lukas use to refer to as \"residual value\". If I understand the concept of residual value accurately to \"paraphrase\" Wayne it is this:

\"If I pay 2 million for a horse at auction that looks like it could be the very best kind, but it can\'t lift a hoof on the track, you my friend are still in the catbirds seat because you can syndicate him or if I bid on a no run filly you can breed her. Lucky you.\"

Its funny how Wayne and others don\'t realize the gold mine they are sitting upon and buy some of these big ticket horses themselves. Don\'t get me wrong, I know theres lots of Mattress Macs and Satish Sanans with bucks to burn and for them this is fun. (At least to a certain extent.)

Its a crapshoot, at all levels, with significantly more risk/exposure at certain levels and less at others. I still think these folks that want to acquire a good horse with potential need to bring their five million to TGraph after a race or two is on the books. Brass Hat is further evidence of that. Just off the top of my head: Tribunal, Intimidator, Houston, Fusaichi Samurai. Why you gonna pay millions before they even lay a hoof on the track? Its goofy. The last three Derby winners were modestly bred. Though never very important, the importance of breeding has lessened. Its goofy to pay for it.

CtC

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t think anyone would have projected Successful Appeal being as good a sire as he appears to be. (Keeping in mind, both S.Appeal and FuPig get have not been asked to negotiate real ground yet) I\'m not a conformation expert, but I like the way this horse looks. The only \"flaw\" I can see is that maybe he could use a little more mass in his rump and the right rear pastern appears a little \"flat\". (That could be the pose) This is a picture of an 8 year old horse. He\'s got a fitness to him I like. He\'s 16.1 hands. His stud fee was 5K. Now its 25K. Thats opportunism too, but they say he has 11 winners (six stake winners) from 36 named foals. Thats pretty impressive. He certainly hasn\'t gotten FuPigs mares, I can guarantee that.

http://breeding.bloodhorse.com/newsronline/sr_sire_page.asp?refno=4060629&origin=singlesearch



Post Edited (01-04-05 11:11)

I would prefer the filly game myself.

A much smaller percentage of colts wind up having value. Usually, unless the breeding is sensational, they have to perform \'very\' well on the track to retain any reasonable amount of value. It\'s more of an all or nothing game with highly volatile results. (like playing the pick 6 on big carryover days)

On the filly side a good pedigree with a  decent racing record can make you money. You are less apt to make a super major score, but your results will be less volatile.  

Given most peoples\' resources (even wealthy people) IMO they are better off going the filly route. If I had a few million to burn that\'s the way I would play.