ROTW ?

[beyerguy]

When the clearly fastest horse in the race was allowed to drift to 6-1, did it change your thinking on your analysis?  I know it did mine.  Clearly fastest horses are bets for me at 6-1, possible bounce or no.

Just curious.  This is obviously one of the pratfalls of posting ananlysis with nothing but the ML to consult.

Assuming I like the horse to win, it generally doesn\'t effect my thinking. If the betting is totally unexpected I will usually double check the figures I am using against another set or two. My first thought is to suspect that I am looking at an inaccurate/suspect/controversial figure. If multiple sets of figures verify the performance and I have no reason to think someone else is better than it looks or that I am missing something else I am going to make the bet.

My own view is that the bounce theory is dramatically overused as an excuse for performances that make complete sense in light racing under different conditions/quality/pace etc...