GP 1/29: R10 (SM Classic)

[Michael D.]

#1 - cozy guy 12/1 ml

the trainer doesn\'t do so well shipping, which is a major concern, but i will take a stab at 12/1 ml. post 1 in the big field is a big plus. the favorites might run faster and still not get him in the stretch. ran very well last time in these type conditions (oct 16 SA - \"0\"). i can excuse the turf race, and the race on dec 8 was a three horse race, and i\'m not sure court got the most out of the horse. nice five week timing coming in. hoping for a run in the \"0\" range. i will use second of june as a saver. fast horse, will probably be in negative territory soon, but might need another race and odds will be low. midas eyes is the fastest. his 9f strub was a nice race, but the post is  tough, might cost him the race like post 10 did in the strub. supah blitz is also fast, but again, post is a killer - pass. i might toss in limehouse, but it will be tough to take low odds from that post.

[gvido]

His \'0\' looks like a totally random number out of nowhere. TG pattern indicates an 80+% to run an off # or an \'X\'. GP has favored ES types in rtes, but there\'s plenty of it in here.

Good luck with your choice.

[Michael D.]

thanks for the reply.... it\'s an odds play. the horse is 12-1 ml, odds will drift higher. who do you like?

[gvido]

What a waste of 1mm bucks.

Last year I was a fan of 2nd of June, never thought he\'d return to the racing wars. \'05 debut was .75 off his best, almost 5 weeks rest. TG pattern suggests 55% chance to pair or a new top. He has enuff speed to get to the rail [hoping, lol] If he runs a \'0\' others will have to run beyond their best; 5/6-1 is a fair price. Midas has a weak pattern, will have a wide trip, but is much faster, don\'t see him off the board.

Good luck to all.

[Michael D.]

your play makes sense. SOJ is fast, and has to be used. he will take a ton of local money though, might be the favorite (sorry, no 6-1). midas eyes will be second or third choice. because of the big field, i will try and beat the favorites. good luck!!!

[Mall]

i like your dope, esp re the favs, although i estimated cozy\'s chances at closer to 25-1 than 12-1. zakocity & 2nd of june also seem live in the 20-1 range, but my thinking is that stockholder is the play at the 12-1 ml. for what it\'s worth, my recommendation to our man on the scene is to sink or swim with him, pah at ml 15-1 in the 6th, & marwood at ml 30-1 in the 9th. best of luck on what looks like a very wide open betting card.

[Michael D.]

mall,
got the #\'s and took a quick look at the 9th. i have to use moscow burning from the inside post, strong # power. i will use scrofa, pattern going in the right direction. last race \"5\" was nice, needs another point or two jump, but odds should be good. your marwood looks good, actually looks very good at 30-1 from post 2 in a big field. a \"3\" or so probably wins this, so she might need a point or so of improvement, but looks as though they have been pointing towards this, we might get it. good luck!!



Post Edited (01-29-05 11:50)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Its a good race. I can\'t say I\'m enamored with Stockholder from a value perspective at 12-1. He laid off longer than SOJ and was beaten rather handily last in a slow \"come home\" time. Two more months off for value?....I don\'t think so. I suppose you have to weigh Commentator. I do know the horse that beat SOJ last put all the heat on him when they met. My suspicion is Stocks went mucho wrong back a ways and they are hoping to nurse him back.

I\'ll take SOJ heads up with this one. (Especially at 20-1, which he\'s better than and you won\'t see) Which is not to say yet I think SOJ is gonna win.

By the way Michael...if Cozy runs that Calfornia race he\'s gonna be a handful. I like the fact hes a better turf horse now than he has been, because i dont think he\'s a turf horse. I prefer he\'d of shown some ability outside Kalifornia, but they all have a knock against them and thats what makes this race interesting even if Midas Eyes wins it at 8-5...lol


CtC



Post Edited (01-29-05 13:05)

[mholbert]

agree this race looks wide open.  the favorite on my line is 6/1.  about 90% of my play is on the pick four, so my main tickets in this race will have classic endeavor (6/1) and stockholder (8/1).

[RICH]

In the classic I ZAKOCITY, hoping for 1 more off that last race, well rested, likes GP and the distance, inside trip.

In the 9th I like MARWOOD, who is as fast as anyone in this race, is 30-1, has a trip over the track (short rest), trainer is hot, inside trip puts her there.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Zakocity is a game horse. Just be aware he doesn\'t know this GP  strip. Its entirely new and he has to pick up some weight, but most in here are in that ballpark. The price is gonna be right.

With Stocks, you have to figure Day is gonna guide him to the rail and sacrifice some position to save ground. If he\'s dead fit that could be a good strategy, but I have to question his fitness and thats not how he likes to run. He came home like a elephant last. (Granted probably wrapped up.) He\'s got the speed to get right in it, but that looks like a tough row to hoe here.

Its a great race.

[gvido]

It\'s a minor miracle that Margolis has been able to get any top numbers for Marwood after leaving Hollendorfer [perhaps not a permanent move?] The extra 1/16th doesn\'t help a horse who lacks a strong closing kick. Moscow should win in a hand ride at a short price.

As for SOJ, several look better in their last in BRIS pp\'s than he. Perhaps he\'ll be shorter than I believe, we\'ll see soon enuff, lol.

btw the Magna 5 looks very chalky, unless Marwood can crash the party, lol

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

gvido wrote:

> It\'s a minor miracle that Margolis has been able to get any top
> numbers for Marwood after leaving Hollendorfer

Just began to look at this race. Apparently as long as Margolis trains at Gulfstream he\'s gonna do fine. I\'ve followed this trainer before somewhere pre Hollendorfer I Think. Guess he knows what he\'s doing. Maybe too well.

I like this one Mall. Very sneaky.

If you could add one horse to the Classic Field. What kinda horse would you add?...I\'d want a good closer. I\'d want a horse that had proven he could get close to the number and distance. I don\'t see that horse with certainty here and a couple other factors are gonna keep me from making a plunge, but the closest thing to it is Supah Blitz. Those ML odds aren\'t right though. He\'s gotta be longer than that on the post and poor last.



Post Edited (01-29-05 14:41)

[Michael D.]

ctc,
the ship is the main concern for cozy. i am going to need big odds, which i think i will get. where do you get 20-1 for SOJ? drop the \"0\" and you will be much closer (maybe right on, it is the home field horse).

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

SOJ is gonna be 6-1 at best, second or third choice. He has tactical speed and should be able to lay in behind those gunning. I think with him it boils down to whether he was pointed to the last one, how good you think the FOY was and whether he\'s truly ready to return to it. I think it was very good and I guess we\'ll see.

I\'ll definitly have Cozy in the mix...That Cal.Cup race was serious business.

Bear fan is a very good horse, if not as good as Emmie Bovary, but I think off the layoff 1-5 is taking a big risk. Mooji could wire her and Alix might get brave.

Well, nuther one morning line 2nd choice...but i\'m gettin killed on past the wire odds changes.



Post Edited (01-29-05 16:20)