Quick Risen Star Rundown

[NoCarolinaTony]

Give me a break , I covered my Win bet on SS with Scipion/SS exacta box and Ran down SS/Scipion/ All  Scipion/SS/all in the tri\'s. I needed SS 1st or 2nd. I spread a little to make a big score since I was winning pretty much throughout the day. I saw that a closer like Scipion might benefit on the early speed which is why I covered with him.

Can\'t a guy hope to make the big score? Do you have to lock in on Friday and stay that way to impress you?

BTW I picked up on Scipion using TG on Friday Evening which i didn\'t have earlier on Friday since I was in the office at the time.

At this point in Time I\'ve got Sweet Catomine in the Derby Futures for what it\'s worth

Mike you like confrontation don\'t you?

[Michael D.]

could be, but i didn\'t refer to another\'s handicapping as \"short sighted\", now did i?
if i ever do that before a race, i would want to post something pretty good, and if i turned out to be wrong, i would then call my own handicapping \"short sighted\".

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael,

Whatever- all I was saying at the time was to not sell Storm Surge Short cause he seemed to be all over Harlington. Yes My own handicapping on that race was \'Short Sighted\'  but I got a run for my money. Ya feel better now? Guess i was smart enough to leave out Harlington from the 10 post figuring he\'d go off at 8/5 or lower for the same reason you did and at least played the race with favorable odds.

For what it\'s worth my short sighted handicapping had 3 rolling pic three\'s and a $2 pick four at gulfstream on Sat. You can look up the prices yourself.

[Michael D.]

ok tony, you got the last word.

sweet catomine has an interesting pedigree. by storm cat, out of a kris s mare. she runs like she wants to go long. her second dam, however, hails from the raise a native lines, and has a dosage of 31.0. SC finished well in her BC win, but came home very slow in her last. we can forgive that, i\'m sure she wasn\'t in top shape, but i will be watching closely to see how she finishes in her next two starts.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I put some $ down on her in the derby futre figuring that there truly isn\'t a Standout yet defined by this male crop.I loved her BC race plus her prior race before the BC was outstanding as well. The race race was just a 5 horse feild and typically the pace in those type races are slower, more of a jackey\'s race.  It remains to be seen what Lost in the Fog and Rockport Harbor do, and if Harlington can get better off this last race. I have my doubts on RH one going the distance and with his running style he could  get burnt up before the Derby(plus he already has health issues). Lost in the Fog is intruiging at this point. I have to look at his breeding some more, although Liftin says his Tomlinsons are very good at 10F.

I guess the biger issue now with her is her trainer is now a \"Suspect Shaker\".

[fasteddie]

I looked at \'Sweet in the futures, but she may not even be the best filly in training. Would love to know why Sis City was dropped into a 50K claimer last summer; is turning into one of the all-time great claims!

[NoCarolinaTony]

Sis City is also by a suspect Step up trainer as well. Yes it was a phonomenal claim for the price. Her last race was awsome against weak competition. Didn\'t Sis City run in the BC Juv Fillies?

[Michael D.]

i like joe torre. it\'s good to see him win two graded stakes races with a $50g claimer. i just hope can can win the world series now with his $150 mio plus payroll (what\'s it at now, close to $200 mio?)

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael,

I think its over $210 Million now closer to $235.

Tony

PS is there a way I can email you off-line?

[Michael D.]

no problem...... the TG crew has my email.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Scipion looked like a very questionable horse to me and I reviewed TGraph \"The Morning After\". There were 3 horses in that field and 4 horses and 5 horses and 6 horses and better odds horses and quick horses and horses with better posts. I just didn\'t see 10-1 as being an exceptional edge all things considered. If he\'d gone off at 25-1, I might have considered his breeding and projected or hoped for second start 2yo-3yo improvement. I looked hard at him. I just didn\'t see it. Did I misread the Red Board?....I swore it was something like 15, 9, 7, 9

I had Real Dandy and Silent Bid on top. In hindsight it kind of looks like Silent was a bad bet, but I was looking for a speed pop and my theory is Lukas is cheating again. I really didn\'t anticipate Zito\'s horse gunning like that. I don\'t usually spread on horses keyed atop like that but I was convinced Harlington was a bet against. Thats what you get when you don\'t focus...lol

I\'d sure be interested in someone explaining what they saw in Scipion to make them think the pattern was positive. If you want to see a positive pattern, go back and refer to your TFigs on Real Dandy.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I\'ll have to wait until later to explain what I saw in him as all my papers are at home. Most of my work was done friday night very late. Since I live 3 hours from the nearest simulcast place I also had to do some last minute figuring as well.

I personally used him in the exotics as there was value there, and was not hung up on the win bet on that one as I bet to win on Storm Surge, and used Scipion as a cover bet. I do like the trainer (high % in the money and win%). Also High % jockey.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well, I\'m looking into it myself a little. Scrutiny of his p.p. interior fractions shows hes got some talent. Heres his first race:

Leaders at calls:

:23,:46:2,1:11:3,1:24:3

7th-2 1/2,8th-11,8th-2 3/4,1st-3/4

That breaks down to him running approx. 23:50,:48:60,1:12:15,1:24:60

Which results in approx. internal splits of

23:50
25:10
23:55
12:45

It looks like he\'s having trouble with turns to me, but when he straightens out I\'m getting the feeling this is a horse with a very big gas tank.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

I just pulled the chart from FG and here is what I have Scipion at:

leaders time at eac call were 23.5 46.75 1.11.61, 1.37.82, 1.44.54

11th at q1 10.8 back
11th @ q2 9.8 back
10th @ q3 10.4 back
7th @ str 5.2 back
1st @ wire +1.25

What i don\'t know is if the Str = the one mile mark or  not making the last two splits questionable but if lets say they were, here is the individual time for the horse 26.3, 48.55, 1.14.01, 1.39.02, 1.44.54
Splits would be 26.3,22.25,25.46,25.0 and 5.53 the last 1/16 ( which is flying). Like I said Im not sure of the last two since it only says STR and not sure if it was at the mile mark or not.

Anyway What I saw in him was a huge improvement in figs in Race 2 last year vs the first time out ( 7 point jump) and that he was losing 4 lbs over any other race he ran. Plus his MSPwt win was visually impressive  at the SPA and they paid $1.8million.Usually you can expect imrpovement over the 2 yo top early on in a developing 3 yo so if his pattern held true he had a \"chance\" but at the time I was hoping more for second with SS winning.

Anyway that what I was thinking that day.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I hear you on the \"Stretch\" call, I\'m not certain its precisely at the mile mark. I use it as a rough tool. Whats important is that in extrapolating it out, you look at the entire field and then you can place whatever significance to it you choose.