Wide

I don\'t play GP, but thanks for the insight. It might come in handy when some of those horses ship to NY. THere\'s nothing better than an \"out of town\" trip. :-)

[richiebee]

Scipion\'s acceleration and cornering
ability on the tight FG turns--
very impressive.

P. Biancone deserves a shot in the
big races, but how many Derby winners
lost at River Downs as a two year old?

[xichibanx]

> P. Biancone deserves a shot in the
> big races, but how many Derby winners
> lost at River Downs as a two year old?


Yeah, but who would of thought a derby winner would have lost at Santa Fe in the New Mexico futurity as a 2yo either.

xichibanx

[richiebee]

Looking at DRF online:

Galloping Grocer headed for
Fountain of Youth. What is
the strike rate of horses
shipping South from NY at
this time of year, especially
to face tougher competition?


Offers to buy Sort it Out, who
is now being treated like Triple
Crown material? To me, he is an
improving young runner who is
relishing the inner tube, and
could seriously regress racing away
from the Inner.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

xichibanx wrote:

> Yeah, but who would of thought a derby winner would have lost
> at Santa Fe in the New Mexico futurity as a 2yo either.

Wish I could remember which horse you are talking about xichi.

Richie, Its pretty clear to me that you are very up on the trends in the derby. The thing that is good about trends is being on the non trend side of them when they don\'t hold up.

I cashed on Strike the Gold when it was said he couldnt win on dosage.

I cashed on Lil E. Tee when it was said a Pennsylvannia bred couldn\'t win it.

I cashed on Funny Cide when it was said a N.Y. bred gelding couldn\'t win it.

I agree there can be valid reasons for trends, but I believe that \"A good horse can come from anywhere.\"

I appreciate your insight that inner track Big A horses haven\'t faired real well in the Derby. If it already hasn\'t been overcome, it will be one day. From my perspective, I\'ve rarely witnessed an inner track big A race with Triple Crown Potential like this year. I\'ll grant its still somewhat unlikely. Also I think Galloping Grocers race was not all bad and though he lost some ranking, I\'m not gonna rule him out without seeing one more.

But as far as Scipion goes, hes obviously not a River Downs horse. I doubt you\'ll see many 1900K purchase price horses running there. His first start was at Saratoga and he won. They obviously didn\'t ship him to River Downs to steal a graded stakes race. The Risen Star is evidence enough of that for me. They are picking their spots.

I thought those two races Saturday were excellent, though I doubt Scipion is gonna get a great number. The potential I see is in the internal fractions.

CtC

[SoCalMan2]

I assume (but we know what happens when you do that -- ask Felix Unger) Xichibanx was referring to Real Quiet.  This is the horse they gave Victory Gallop\'s trophy to according to this board\'s proprietor recently.  Also, apropos the discussion elsewhere on this board currently regarding wide rides, I think they gave Victory Gallop\'s trophy to Real Quiet because Victory Gallop did not manage to make it to the finish line in time due to a detour (ala Alex Solis).  I think certain people have a strong opinion in that context as to whether or not a wide ride made a difference.

[fasteddie]

Speaking of wide trips, why hasn\'t anyone come up with a device-like a pedometer- for the equine? It could be attached to the saddle,and measure the actual distance traveled by each horse. Perhaps some wireless device that comes on at the start, and shuts off (electric eye) at the finish??

[SoCalMan2]

Rumor has it that there are far more sophisticated devices either in use or in development.  Supposedly, in Hong Kong, they are going to have some sort of GPS system that is not only going to track exactly where each horse is every step of the way, but the GPS will also be able to time each horse every step of the way (so very accurate fractions and final times). This was rumored several years ago so maybe it is in place.

[miff]

Fast Eddie,

I understand that Keenland did some experimental work in this area. It\'s just a matter of time before some new technology for ground loss, splits and final time will be all over the place.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff wrote:

> Fast Eddie,
>
> I understand that Keenland did some experimental work in this
> area. It\'s just a matter of time before some new technology for
> ground loss, splits and final time will be all over the place.
>

Not sure how that bodes for TGraph. Will Beyer suddenly incorporate ground loss? I noticed Beyer gave Scipion a 89 for the Risen Star. Best 89 I\'ve ever seen.

[xichibanx]

SoCalMan2 was right Real Quiet...

xichibanx

>Will Beyer suddenly incorporate ground loss? <

There\'s a 0% chance of that. His view on ground loss is different than TG\'s.

He believes that ground loss is a component of performace that should viewed seperately from how fast the horse reached the finish line. It\'s part of \"trip\".

[Michael D.]

ctc,
1:44.5 over what looked like a pretty quick track. the filly ran four lengths faster, and zito\'s older horse went seven or eight lengths faster. make scipion\'s race fast, then you have to make the other two extremely fast. could be that summerly and wanderin boy did both run huge though. will be interesting to see how TG makes the race. scipion will get some credit on TG because he lost considerably more ground than wanderin boy, and a bit more ground than summerly. in my opinion, any way you look at it, the filly was the most impressive performer on the card.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I really think a Pace Fig would really help read into a race a lot better. Years ago there used to be a paper called Figs Form and I made a huge killing using that product. They went out of business but they had each Horse grapphed in once chart in terms of both pace and final figs (Historical). was quite an interesting concept back then.

none the less, Pace - final time fig and Grond loss all matter. ( Not to mention the trip issues such as lost momentum due to tiring horse etc)

[richiebee]

Ctc:
Good points, and I have been beaten by
some non trendy horses, going
back to 1980 when I had a large bet on
Rumbo (Genuine Risk).

I went to the 1980 Derby with a college
friend whose father trained horses in
Kentucky. During the day, I was
introduced to one of Nelson Bunker
Hunt\'s daughters. I asked her if it
was difficult to buy presents for a
man of such great wealth.

Her answer \"Daddy just loves McDonalds
gift certificates.\"

Scipion was a 1.9 mil RNA, not a purchase,
not that this really matters.

Funny Cide was, I believe, foaled and conceived in KY. Yes, technically,
he is a NYB.