Cleaning up the Racing Industry: Today's - "Who's HOT and who's NOT"

>I agree with the position of Classhandicapper (I think it was him) that ultimately the solution has to involve consolidation of race tracks and a smaller population of racing horses. Of course, if I were training low-level claimers at a small track, I wouldn\'t think much of that solution.<

Exactly. The solution is going to make a lot of people very unhappy. I think over the long term though, smart economics will overcome jobs etc...

[miff]

Class,
From a gambling standpoint I have little interest in who keeps them sound, improving, etc.I only care about which trainers send out winners and losers.

miff,

I agree with you.

The view might be dfferent from an owner\'s perspective.

Suppose you give 5 very talented highly priced horses to 2 different trainers.

Let\'s say one breaks down 2 before they get to the races, gets a series of minor wins out of 2 before they are shelved, and turns one into a star.

Is that better than a guy that has a much lower win percentage, but keeps all his horses sounder and active long enough to reach their potential?

[derby1592]

Here is an editorial from \"Bloodhorse\" on the topic by Gary Biszantz, chairman of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association. I think he sums up the issues and the current situation in KY very nicely.

http://opinions.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=26825

Chris

[razzle]

Derby, thanks for posting the Bloodhorse article.  I think I may have missed it if you hadn\'t.  I posted it on the other board because I think it\'s important for all to see the struggle sanity(Bizantz et al) has with the inane blunderers(Ky) in our industry.  raz

Has anyone ever studied the performances of Kentucky based horses when they ship to stricter drug rule states relative to the norm?  (or vice versa)

[miff]

Class,

Back 5 or 6 years ago,I looked at Kentucty shippers to Saratoga. They performed very far below their norm. I did not save the data, but I was tossing all of them very successfully.

[Saddlecloth]

On sunday in the first, he wheeled a horse back after a win in three days.  Now there was no figure for the thursday race, but he went from 12,5 to 25k.  The main horse in the race was Smokieisabandit, who had just paired tops around 0(neg).  Crafty Player for Dutrow had run a 6 three times last year, as late as dec 28th.  Watching the race was amazing, as crafty player showed speed that we had never seen before from him, and drew off with ease.  My guess is Smoke regressed a bit, probably in the 2 area, and that Craft Player jumped from 6 to maybe 0, maybe lower?  I am a novice on the figures so maybe someone can help me out.  Basically this is the type of sudden move up that has lots of people scratching their head.

[richiebee]

I think he is in a dogfight for leading trainer in New York with Lake and Contessa.

I think he was the leading trainer in New York last year, and will probably be this year.

I think he claimed a filly for $50,000, won some stakes with her, and sold her to the McNairs for 7 figures.

Before everybody became obsessed with milkshakes and NSAIDs, the top trainers used to talk about winning as being a function of studying the condition book. Rich Dutrow\'s dad competed on a very tough Maryland claiming circuit against guys like King Leatherbury and Ron Alfano, the kid may have
learned something.

I think that Dutrow studied the condition book, studied the horse population stabled in New York, and surmised that the 25K race might not be that much tougher than the 12K race. He gambled, he won.

I will repeat what I have said in the past about Gill. The same holds true for Dutrow. Because they win races in great numbers, their runners undergo more testing than their less prolific counterparts. Where are the positives?

I greatly appreciate the opportunity TGJB gives me to express myself on this board even though I am a total stranger to him. I think, a bit like Classhandicapper, that the \"move up\" trainers are like Moby to TGJB\'s Ahab. The Thorograph product is a great tool for separating winners from wannabees, but should not be used as an evidentiary tool in any court-- including the court of public opinion.

You are modest to call yourself a novice, but you certainly realize that when a top trainer moves a horse up in company-- thats usually a good thing.



Post Edited (03-01-05 10:44)

[miff]

Richiebee,

A great many NY players/racetrackers(including horsemen) believe that Dutrow may be using SOMETHING. He has not been caught cheating and therefore he has be be given his props until he is caught, if ever.

IMHO, it is difficult to believe that someone could go on a run like Dutrow has for the past 5 years. There are many horsemen on the NY Circuit with at least equal talent and stock that do not produce anything near Rick\'s results.

I\'ve been around too long to believe that Horsemanship alone is the total reason for the success of the Supertrainers.No disrespect reallly, but reading the condition book and spoting horses is no great secret to many, many horsemen in this game.

Thanks. I think I may start keeping track of stats like that.

[Saddlecloth]

Miff,

The kentucky to saratoga shipper is the worst bet I have seen.  What was Reinstadler (sp) last year 1/20, he is doing the same down at GP this meet, he comes in with legit figure contenders and the dont run back.  Even a guy like Howard sees his numbers did.  Its a tougher meet, but I dont think you should see figure drops pretty much across the board.

[NoCarolinaTony]

This is from Brisnet Track Stats 2004 (Based on 03) Kentucky Shippers to Aqueduct totaled 85 with 11 winning (13%)itm% 38% which was identical to Horses that remained in NY and raced again in NY.

For Belmont:
Kentucky Shippers 166 28 winners at 17% and an itm 48%, Higher than the in NY rate of 13% and 38%.

Saratoga: Ky shippers 151 with 24 winners 16% and an itm% of 45%  again better than the instate horses.

Bris Publishes Track Stats which are very intersting for handicappers.

I don\'t think this helps your cause however.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee wrote:

> I will repeat what I have said in the past about Gill. The same
> holds true for Dutrow. Because they win races in great numbers,
> their runners undergo more testing than their less prolific
> counterparts. Where are the positives?

Exactly, until the proof is in you can\'t withhold acclaim. I think Gill should have been Eclipse winning owner. I also agree that \"Leading Trainer\" was a hard knocker.

Still the evidence is not only \"Fast and Far\" its \"Who and When\". What does Dutrow have in common with Frankel and Pletcher, besides being \"dominant\"?

CtC

[Saddlecloth]

If Kentucky and New York account for only 30% of the winners where does the other 70% come from?  I mean a couple from monmouth, couple from socal, couple fro phil., but out of what 250 races or so last meet, 175 are won by non new york or kentucky horses (of course you have a handfull of firsters in the group)?