Beyer

>What other explanation could there be?<

Let me play Devil\'s advocate.

There are 2 possible explanations.

1. He was juiced for this race, but not for any of the other recent ones.

2. He was a better horse than 25K claimers early in his career. As a 3YO in late summer he earned a Beyer figure of 81 with an inferior trainer. Just with normal improvement into his 4YO campaign one might expect that he could run a figure close to 90 at this point in his career. However, instead of developing like the typical 3YO he went backwards for awhile. That was probably due to physical problems. He was given close to 2 months off and came back with a pretty sharp win against weaker. He was then rolled right back in 3 days. Contrary to popular opinion, I have years of stats that suggest that wheeling horses back on 5 days or less rest off a sharp win often indicates the horse is ready for a peak effort and is doing especially well physically (this covers many trainers and multiple decades). Doing so well these days off that freshening, he not only was able to fire a figure close to the 90 we would have expected with normal improvement, a superior trainer like Dutrow got an even better peak out of him.



Post Edited (03-03-05 12:39)

[twoshoes]

I have years of stats that suggest that wheeling horses back on 5 days or less rest off a sharp win often indicates the horse is ready for a peak effort and is doing especially well physically (this covers many trainers and multiple decades).

Absolutely right Class - Oscar, Ferriola and Serey to name a few were successful with this maneuver quite often. Err... I\'m not helping am I. Never mind.

Seriously, for whatever reason I regarded that as a major positive (no, not that type) on Sunday and I liked the price.

edit - sorry, missed the day.



Post Edited (03-03-05 13:45)

[miff]

Rich/Class

I respect your opinions and your explanations,however how did CP suddenly find brilliant early speed for the first time in his career? Even great horsemanship CAN\'T do that.

miff,

I was really just playing devil\'s advocate on that one. Dutrow has moved up some horses that I couldn\'t come up with any rational explanation for. I\'m just not ready to accuse him of anything I can\'t prove.

twoshoes,

\"I\'m not helping am I\"

LOL.

Seriously, besides the guys you mentioned, the 5 day repeater pattern among claiming class winners is a positive.

I believe that such a high percentage of claimers have physical problems and quickly changing form, that if one makes it back to the track within 5 days of a win it is screaming that the horse is fit, sound, and sharp right now. It appears that just knowing you have a sharp horse in the claiming ranks gives you an advantage as a bettor. Many claimers coming into a race with good figures go south.



Post Edited (03-03-05 20:45)

[Boscar Obarra]

  Cmon guys. Stop the sillyness.  Everyone knows these guys are using, and the P.C. B.S, about proof, no proof, you can\'t tell, maybe they got lucky for 5 years, is all snake venom.

  Proof is for the Courts where guys make very fancy salaries for lying and obfuscating. What\'s in it for you?

[Boscar Obarra]

 Oh yeah, how come old Johnny P. doesn\'t get more mention. He has a nice little streak there years ago winning at some ungodly rate. Settled down some in his old age, but still plying his trade.

  Too much heat.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Dutrow Has tried this before with CP on Dec 5 with a win at $16K and came right back on Dec 9th finished 2nd at $20K. Dutrow claimed the horse for $50K so he\'s running sore and cheap, (most likely with a pain aid of some type to forget he\'s hurting). The horse has some back class.  Hey..... When I have a few Maker\'s Marks I feel younger again too......Wow this is great conversation on this board...very entertaining..

[NoCarolinaTony]

Campo?

[Boscar Obarra]

 No , Parisella