Santa Catalina

If it weren\'t for the fact that Declan\'s Moon looks like he\'ll be able to get a perfect trip sitting just off Going Wild and Spanish Chestnut, I\'d think he was actually \"a little\" vulnerable here.

Going Wild looks to be the quicker and better of the two speeds, but it also looks like both them need a decent trip on the front end to get the route. That could play into the strategy.  

With SC on the inside of GW, GW might have to either work hard to get the lead or try to rate. If neither allows the other to get away easy, which seems likely, they could compromise each others chances enough to matter.  

I don\'t think Declan was so much better than GW when he left off that he can come back a little short and beat him if for some reason GW sprints clear and gets away with a decent pace. Not saying that Declan won\'t eventually be much better, but coming back off a little over 2 months and with bigger fish to fry in a few months this is not the place to expect 100%.  

I can\'t imagine that Declan is wound up 100% for this race. He\'s going to have to win on sheer superiority or favorable trip. He seserves favoritism, but I suspect he doesn\'t deserve to be as big a favorite as he will be.

[jimbo66]

CH,

2-1 on GW is a \"fair\" price in my mind.  I am of the opinion that GW is quicker than Spanish Chestnut and will beat him to the lead.  If the pace is really contested, then of course Declan gets the perfect trip.  But I was not impressed with Declan\'s race at 1 1/16 when he beat Giacomo by 1 length.

One of the problems is that although I agree that Declan is not likely to be wound up 100%, take a look at Ron Ellis\'s numbers with this kind of layoff.  47%, 8 for his last 17.  So, he usually has them wound up.  Although I would definitely argue there is a big difference between winding up your claimers and allowance horses for their first start, versus winding up a horse that you want to go 1 1/4 on the first SAturday in May.  But Declan\'s workouts look very sharp.

I will bite at 2-1 on GW, but I don\'t think I will get the price.  The inside 3 are tomato cans.  

I see something like

Declan 3-5
GW 9-5
SC 5-1

The others very long.

Your ML odds look about right to me. I can\'t see myself betting the race. I just thought it might be worth pointing out that our Eclipse Award winning 2 year old may not be a mortal lock first out of the year in case they bet him that way.

[Michael D.]

jim,
i don\'t remember how fast SC ran his 2f, but when tabor pulls a horse chestnut colt out of an in training sale for $500g, it\'s a safe bet he ran quarter horse time. :45 flat work last month.... i just took a look at the dam side pedigree, it\'s 100% speed. if they want the lead here, they can probably get it.

[Michael D.]

and jim, i might have a different opinion after i take a closer look, but i think the odds on GW and SC will be closer than you think. it is tabor/biancone, and this horse did win the san rafael in the same fashion as lion heart did.

[Saddlecloth]

Does anyone really think stevens is going to send Spanish Chestnut?

I think he will try to sit just off of it, and going wild should get a good trip with a fresh declans pressing, and dont discount the condition edge going wild has.

>Does anyone really think stevens is going to send Spanish Chestnut?<

He\'s been on the lead in all of his routes and pressed fairly early in both sprints. He was a bit rank in those races. Being inside, I think he will make some attempt for the lead but perhaps give the battle up fairly quickly if Going Wild appears determined to get it.  The thing is, SC\'s stretch runs in his route races hardly look like he can sit off GW and then pick him up plus hold off Declan. I think GW is the faster speed horse. So I think SC is in a difficult spot strategically if he backs off or decides to fight (unless of course he moves forward more than the others).

[gvido]

Michael D. wrote

\"and jim, i might have a different opinion after i take a closer look, but i think the odds on GW and SC will be closer than you think. it is tabor/biancone, and this horse did win the san rafael in the same fashion as lion heart did\"

Only problem is that Lion ran it about 6pts faster. SC is running 6\'s, will take plenty of $$$ with a solid chance to finish off the board.

[TGJB]

Just a couple of quick comments regarding this race, since I have to start writing ROTW (Big Cap). Ellis was quoted recently as saying that no matter whose ratings you used the Dmr Futurity figure was \"off the charts\" (or something like that). Wrong. Not on all ratings.

Aside from whatever Ragozin gave the horse, this race gives a good example of the Beyer figures being wrong by region. The California figures are too high, Snack\'s TP figures way too low, although some of the differential there is ground loss. None of which is meant to express an opinion about this race-- Ellis is a layoff trainer, and I think the horse will run well this time, and be a bet against the rest of the way (I know Michael disagrees). Snack, on the other hand, may be killed by that last huge effort, and is dealing with an east-west ship. On the other hand, he\'s getting big weight from DM and GW, the other horses with numbers... the race is an unbettable mess.

Not so other big races Saturday.

[Michael D.]

gvido,
yes, you could be correct (i have not downloaded the #\'s yet). i was just making a point about the probable odds....

and guys, if you don\'t like declan, there is money to be made here. the horse will take at least half of the pool and go off at 3-5 or 4-5. if you like SC or GW, just single one of them in doubles and pk3\'s. if you like one of the others, you have all kind of options.



Post Edited (03-03-05 15:39)

[TGJB]

Another example of the inflated California Beyers shows up in the Fountain Of Youth. Check out Papi Chullo\'s figures, compared to any and all of the Eastern horses.

[Silver Charm]

Ellis will have him ready.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Moon hasn\'t run huge numbers. (I guess thats a good thing.) He did look like he finished with something left last, but he did catch a good spot against a couple of horses. Wilko, ran on a quarter crack discovered the very day before and later was favoring the leg. Giacomo was projected for an improve and made his forward move but wasn\'t right there pre race with him.

This time theres some quality two turn speed horses. He hasn\'t seen this kind of race before. Espinosa has stayed with the 2 yr. old champ. Would you really expect him and his agent to gamble otherwise? He\'s good, theres no doubt about it. I\'m looking at numbers that give him an edge, but is good enough to run three wide on a new surface off a layoff?

This ain\'t Hollywood anymore Toto.

TGraph has been a little leary of Beyer Cali numbers. I\'m keeping my eye on TFigs from Turfway. That track is a very odd phenomena.

CtC

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I like the analysis Michael. First off, they want to clear the tomato cans. Its a quick run to the first turn, so I think all three outside will be on the motor. You don\'t want to be wide. One of the two will probably show extra early foot. DeClans is front end but not speed crazed and he hasn\'t been trained to \"bust it\". I\'ll be surprised if he\'s not three wide or tucked in behind the other two. Its gonna be a question of being fit enough to be on the bridle with some accomplished two turn horses and outfooting them late from outside by all appearances at say 4-5?

Assuming the pace is legit and DeClan\'s puts forth the effort to overcome the impediments, how can the tomato can\'s not have their best case scenario? The speed has to go to clear and then in all likelihood wing at each other at high weights. Even if they are pure tomato can\'s do you think they will be losing or making up ground in the very end and in consideration of that, what of the track? And how much difference is there really in Spanish Chestnuts December 3rd race and DeClan\'s Moon\'s Hollywoood Futurity? Are they really that dissimilar?

Its an interesting race. It would be even more interesting with a horse like Afleet Alex or Sun King entered.

I think Going Wild is a little quicker, but he is a path more wide.

CtC



Post Edited (03-03-05 17:18)

[Michael D.]

bottom line - warranted or not, both tabor and the lewis\' have derby dreams, and they both want to do it from the front end. a quote from biancone after the san rafael: \"he\'s got the same style as lion heart and maybe i train him better than lion heart.... he\'s just like lion heart. if you go with him, you\'re dead; and if you don\'t do, he\'s difficult to catch.\" this will be a good old fashion game of chicken.