I agree with Chris\'s comment -- another nice job on the ROTW. I also want to compliment Chris on his ROTW which I thought was excellent (it really put the pressure on me).
Here are a few side comments from me...as to Borrego...at 30-1 he is unquestionably usable in exotics underneath, that price seems very out of whack to me. However, he would need to give some indicator before I felt one could rely on him coming ALL THE WAY back to that one isolated top and be deserving of major backing. I agree that an off track helps him and that he WILL be jumping back up to (probably) the \'2\' level which with the weight is not awful (not 30-1 awful). I am more inclined to agree with Chris, in contradistinction to TGJB\'s analysis, to be forgiving of that first off the layoff because of this horse\'s history of large jump ups. The question is does he jump up 3.5 points or 6.5 points? Lean closer to the 3.5 which is what makes him usable but not key-worthy (he would be key-worthy with a 6.5 jump up (although could still manage to lose to St. Liam). Does anybody know what weight Gomez can make? It is important today.
On Island Fashion, I agree with TJGB entirely. I think you can just blank out her two turf efforts and am hoping that her excuse in the last was truly bona fide. If that is the case, then I think she looks very strong here. Am hoping feverishly that her odds will drift up.
Saint Liam -- good grief. The average number this horse has run in 2004 and 2005 is faster than a \'-2.\' The average of the last three is \'-3.5.\' He is early in his 5 year old campaign so as bizarre as this sounds, more improvement is possible. Even if this horse reacts to his last figure, he is not going to react a lot. This time last year as a 4 yo he was throwing back to back \'-1.5s\'. I think he is likely to pair up his number today (the bore outs do not scare me after seeing what he did last time out after having two bore outs already -- if anything, the confidence of running him back sooner than normal (but still with 4 weeks rest) tells me it is not an indication of an injury or infirmity). Unfortunately, I think this horse will get a good trip. Truly a Judge and Grand Reward have to be sent (it is their only hope) and they will probably break away from the field. Prado will have more than a quarter of a mile to find a way to get to the rail with a horse that is pretty tractable. The one possibility is that P Val\'s horse is equally tractable and he does the smart thing and box out Edgar.
Anyway, it seems to me that the way to play this race (which is not a very appetizing betting race) is to key SL on top in the Supers and key IF underneath. To fill out the other two holes, you need to unfortunately spread pretty deep, but you could get one (and if you are very lucky two) good prices in there to make it a nice super. Borrego, Truly a Judge, and Supah Blitz are possible candidates for that spot (or, hopefully, spots). I would probably save a little with Island Fashion in the win hole so I do not feel like a complete idiot if she beats SL.
There are some other extremely tasty races on this card.
