Louisiana Derby

[NoCarolinaTony]

There is no way High Limit goes off as a tepid favorite. He\'ll be odd\'s on in my opinion. As for High Limit not beating anyone so far, keep in mind neither did Smarty Jones early on, but I am in agreement that you have to bet against that one in this race.

I\'m reluctant to give Storm Surge a second chance at 8.5F but the Jock switch has to help with a more patient ride. Inside also helps. KCB should be fit witout much early speed to get around early. Sort it Out sits in an excellent spot. Fitness is the issue. Wall Street Scandal is intruiging. Storm Surge,Wallstreet, Sort It Out is the Value Play exacta Box for me this week.  Throw in KCB for the tri box. Not betting big, just hoping for value.

Bet a little win a lot....concept.

[kev]

I don\'t really care too much for this race, I will play alittle something though.
SORT IT OUT--Does have the nice moving line this year, has moved alot from his 2yr old races. The moves are getting smaller and I think this is the end of the moving forward for him tom. A small back up to a 4.1 to a 5.1 is coming.
REAL DANDY--I think I will get better odds than 8-1 on him and he will be my play for the race, not a all time great play, but for the odds it\'s cool. Has only moved 3pts from his 2yr top, and did pair up those last two numbers and a small move might be in him for this one.
INDY STORM--Too slow at best might jump to a 5.2, giving A.P.INDY\'s move 3 1/2 pts from 2 to 3.
SCIPION--Rough reading him, Feels like he will bounce tom., but by how much?? I look for a 5.3 to a 7.3 level back up and at 4-1 not very good for a horse that looks ready to back up.
VICARAGE--The 2 he ran looks to have him kncoked out for awhile and at best might move forward off that last and puts him on the bottom of the tri\'s ( at best )
KC BOY--Damn fine looking 2yr old pattern, but what the %$#@ happen this year so far?? I give this horse a back up move off that 4.2 in his last and thats not good.
WALLSTREET SCANDAL--Who knows what he wil do tom.
HIGH LIMIT--He will not be left off on my tickets for the ex\'s with REAL D. Alot of question for him, hes fast,hes been off for 4 1/2 months, it\'s Bobby F...
STORM SURGE--Is going the wrong way, after that 2 three back, the bounce was only 1pt, so I will give him a pair up 4.2

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Wow,

He\'s much faster on TFigs than anything else.

Interesting.

I don\'t know, if I was a devout TFig user, I think I\'d have to look real hard at High Limit. Those TFig may have me off the race...lol

Horses that win by huge margins almost always have much higher TG figures than Beyers. I have a theory about that, but I haven\'t studied it closely enough to be sure.

When one horse is totally dominant over his competition, he often beats them into submission and goes on to win by a much larger margin than the difference between them indicates he should have based on their figures coming in.

Dominant horses can run faster than weak horses early without that faster pace having a negative impact. Inferior horses are straining severely just to keep up with a very superior horse and run slower final figures as a result.

When the margin is then huge, a figure maker that is not particularly sensitive to pace will turn around and assume the race is much faster than it is because he can\'t reconcile the huge winning margin with the slow final times run by the rest of the field.

The reality is that the superior horse is usually just running his normal figure and everyone else is running a slower final figure. The slower guys are running at the same level as usual, it\'s just buried in the fast pace.

IMHO, if you are not sensitive to this type of pace match up and the implications for the speed figures of the inferior horses, you will often wildly overrate the winning horse\'s figure.

[Bally Ache]

This is a $600,000 allowance race.  If Sort It Out runs back to his last, he\'ll win.

High Limit 2yo races are very impressive.  Can he win at 2 turns off the layoff?

The rest appear inferior to these two.

[shanahan]

simple, isn\'t it?
Tri box - Scipion, Sort It Out, High Limit.
And lay off McPeek - being a good guy AND a good trainer is a small group.

[Florida Phil]

Lots of interesting chat on this race.  I personally like KC on my ticket and would leave Scipion off.  KC might be the key.

[NoCarolinaTony]

The Key to the Race imo is will anyone put pressure on High Limit or will that one get an easy unpressured lead, if so horses like Storm Surge will have to move earlier losing any chance they might have. KCB need to press the top one and if that happens...Scipion,WS, Sort it out will have something to run at, while the pressers will wait till top of the strech to make move.

I\'m hoping that HL is a little short, but with Frankel they are ready to run early.

Tough tough race..hoping for a couple of what if\'s. Better to bet small exotics on this one and hope for a big score (SS,SIO,WS&KCB) in tris and exacta\'s will include HL for start of pic 4---1236/6710/2/468

[jimbo66]

CH,

I think you are way off with your comment about horses who win big getting extra high T-Graph figures as opposed to Beyer figures.  From what I have seen the exact opposite is true.  Beyer gives bigger figures to horses who have runaway frontrunning scores, as opposed to T-Graph figures.

Many times I have bet against horses who had runaway wins in their previous race, getting a much bigger Beyer figure than T-Graph figure, and to be honest, it has been a pretty successful betting strategy.

I would like to hear JB\'s comment on your assessment.

[jimbo66]

Tony,

I seriously doubt High Limit goes off at \"odds on\".

On \"matchup\" odds, High limit is -140 to finish ahead of Scipion.  Matchups are not always a strong barometer of parimutuel wagering, but they often are.  If was to be odds on in a big field, he would be a much bigger favorite than -140 over Scipion.

I  would \"guesstimate\" somewhere between 3-2 and 2-1, still not a good price, but not odds on.

Good luck,

Jim

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo,

I could agree with 3-2 area. I\'m thinking the BUZZ on this horse is pretty loud and the national money will be sent in. However, I do accept your assessment especially after looking at the DRF pole results online.

Still tough to bet at 3-2 8/5. Now if this one floats to 3-1 or better.....than I might certainly change my bet to some extent.

This should be a fun race to watch and bet.

Tony

[TGAB]

JB is sitting by a pool making figures down in Puerto Rico getting ready to meet Connie Merjos at El Commandante. He\'ll be back next week. He also says I told you so about Declan\'s Moon and Ellis.

But I have a question for Ch--what about the closers who are aren\'t necessarily affected by the pace?

[Michael D.]

jim,
re the matchup odds - very interesting considering the DRF poll, which is often a good indicator of final odds, has scipion at 3-1 and HL at 6-1. looks like the \"smart\" money is leaning towards HL. i don\'t like the race. i don\'t consider HL a real strong derby candidate, but this track seems to favor his running style, and there is not a ton of pace in the race. i will probably box HL, SIO, and KCB (without a lot of confidence).

[Michael D.]

alan,
told you so about declan? everybody on this board has been negative on the horse. the only guy in his corner (me) has been with others in the futures pool. just tell jerry to bet against declan next time he runs, so i can once again double my money in under two minutes..........

nice ROTW, i am basically going with it. good luck.



Post Edited (03-12-05 12:51)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I know Jerry wasn\'t high on DeClans, but I don\'t recall him hinting at physical issues. The horse on TGraph ran something like 7,4,4,4,_...i dont know what the last race was. I can\'t see a pattern hinting at physical issues there. He didn\'t lay off, other than the 2 prep format they chose and to bypass the B.C. Was that the hint?

Last night, I read the most ridiculous statement from Frankel and its still got me scratching my head. Frankel got High Limit in November and was pointing him to the Hollywood Futurity but he was off for some reason. But what Frankel just said is that he just looked at High Limits past performances a couple days ago and didn\'t realize he goes to the front. Does anyone believe that? If its true hasn\'t he been awfully disengaged with this horse? This same story said they dont know what they have. Well, either thats true or they are really tellin a whopper for some reason. Why tell a whopper? To play coy about stealing off quickly? I\'m intrigued with what trainers say and why the heck they say it and its got nothing to do with the truth of what is said. This time, I have no freakin idea what these guys may or may not be doing.