Louisiana Derby

[Silver Charm]

Horsemanship......

Frankel has it

Baffert doesn\'t

Nice Call TGAB

Well he won, but I don\'t think he proved too much today either. He got loose and it must have been pretty darn slow \"early\" because no one was able to make any move at any point. They pretty much went 1, 2, 3 around the track. The good news for Frankel is that I am assuming he wasn\'t 100%, so he may get better. He\'ll eventually get tested though.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol Silver

Bafferts entry was an afterthought and his horse obviously was not right for the dance. You could see that going in though.

The Frankel horse had a lot go his way. The pace looked marginal to me, but it half figured to. The track was quick and the come from behinds were compromised and didn\'t fire. They ran 1-2-3 around the track on those tepid fractions.

Which is not to say this might not be a good horse.

I never said his figures were false. I said I don\'t know what his figures are because I don\'t know the horses behind him. However, I do see horses like this with suspect figures.  

I also thought he was vulnerable today, but it certainly improved his chances when no one made any effort to challenge him early and the other horses with figures didn\'t lift a hoof.

[Michael D.]

class,
every step of the race was impressive. this horse exploded. he figured to run well going 1/16th at FG though. my predction - a peace rules like finish 3rd in the derby at best. i don\'t like his pedigree stretching out.



Post Edited (03-12-05 16:40)

[Silver Charm]

If there is a TV camera around either Bob or Jill will be loitering around somewhere nearby. He said a week ago the horse had lost weight and needed time and then here he was today.

High Limit may have had things his own way but the trainer had him ready. I\'ll say this once, if other trainers are taking edges then Frankel and Pletcher will also take edges and beat you. If no one is allowed to take edges then Frankel and Pletcher will still beat you.

Just not as often as witnessed by their reduction in number of starters this year as compared to last.



Post Edited (03-12-05 16:46)

Michael,

I must have higher standards for impressive. He certainly didn\'t do anything wrong so I can\'t trash him. However, you can\'t have it any easier than that. He was loose, going slow early, and KCB didn\'t fire. Sort it Out was a little more suspect to run well, but he didn\'t either. Most of the other horses that could have challenged late didn\'t have much of shot under this pace scenario. He proved more today than in the past because at least these weren\'t garbage cans behind him, but IMO, he has a lot to prove yet.  

I consider impressive to be dueling off a \"major contender\" early, repulsing a bid from one of the stalkers and then drawing off in fast time. He has yet to be tested by a reasonable pace and another horses of quality and we know what happens to lots of horses when they do.

Personally I think the most impressive thing is that Frankel is smart enough to not have had him wound up 100% today with the Derby being the target. So I do think there\'s more in the tank.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think the one-two result, which was not unforeseeable here is clear evidence that the cheating is not completely under control. Whether its EPO or bloodpacking or Steroids or what have you. You had Allday run One-Two and I\'m sure you all took note of that. It doesnt mean the Allday trainers don\'t get credit for winning right now but that was typical M.O. for the phenomena.

CTC,

So you think the slow pace contributed nothing to Vicarage hanging around for second.

[kev]

Hell if you knew it, I guess you was all over the ex. UH??? if not then why even play the races anymore?? if you think there is all this cheating...........

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

yeah, i mean obviously, but this was a sprint horse essentially backing up in sprints (granted good sprints) I dont know. Do they test for the Shakes in La?  Or is there something else going on there?....I think you should analyze this result carefully in regard to the N.O. Handicap.

Kev, I cashed that race. It doesnt\' mean I like it.

In my opinion all bets are off on the legitimately trained horses in the N.O.



Post Edited (03-12-05 17:07)

I am thinking of taking a stab against Badge of Silver. The two I am interested in are Limehouse and to a lesser extent Pollard\'s Vision. Both are trained by Pletcher, but drugs have nothing to do with my opinion.

I like BOS a lot, but I don\'t think 9F is optimal even though he won at that distance already.

I think both of Pletcher\'s horses are coming into this race ready for a big effort. I hope I can get a decent price on both because I\'d have no problem betting both horses.

Naturally, there are several other horses in there with a decent chance for an upset also, but I am leaning to Pletcher.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I would have made Wanderin Boy a great bet here pre La. Derby. Now I think he\'ll take the lead and get worn down by both BOS and Pollard. The extra sixteenth is gonna play to the juice animals in my opinion.

Limehouse late for the top 4 as well. How far into it is anyones guess.

One last thing. IF Wanderin Boy is able to win this thing, it does not mean the Allday boys were not cheating today. He\'ll win without me though. I\'m watching.



Post Edited (03-12-05 17:25)

[kev]

Oh I\'m sorry, I didn\'t know that, didn\'t fine your picks anywhere to that race....anyone capping the razorback at OP tom. Looks like a nice betting race. Looks like Purge is ready to run a big one. 5-2m/l on him.

[derby1592]

It seems like the popular post-race reaction on the board is to downgrade High Limit\'s performance today.

I don\'t quite see why if you look at the numbers.

First, he was the fastest horse going into the race and he probably improved off his 2yo top in his first start at 3. My guess is that his was the fastest 2-turn Derby prep this year to date (I would guess that he ran somewhere between a -1 and a 0 but we will have to wait and see what the figure turns out to be), which is probably fast enough to win the Derby if he can repeat it.

He equaled the stakes record.

His mile time was only 3/5 of a second slower than that for Badge of Silver and he was carrying 4 more lbs than BOS.

His final time was a full second faster than Summerly\'s who likely either paired her top (a pretty fast \"3\") or ran a new top and all the internal fractions were much faster for HL.

It was his first start in 4 months.

So give the horse a break and give it some credit.

Now if you want to question his ability to get the distance, then go ahead - that\'s a legit question. He might not run his best at 10f but his sire has already sired a Derby winner so his breeding is not that much of a stretch and probably as good as most of the other top contenders.

If you want to point out that he may have ran too fast off the bench and you wonder if he can maintain that form through the Derby, then go ahead - that\'s another legit question.  But if any trainer can get a horse to string together several big efforts in a row, it\'s Bobby Frankel.

I am sure there are other legit questions to be asked and certainly the Derby is a long way off for all those prepping, but at least give the horse some credit for this effort; it was a huge race.

I admit that I am biased since I played him in the last future pool thinking that he looked like the one horse that might be another \"freak\" in the mold of Smarty Jones with Frankel taking over the training duties as an added bonus, but even a more objective observer would have a hard time discrediting that big effort today.

One thing is for sure. The Derby trail is always interesting for the racing fan and there is certainly room for all sorts of conflicting opinions along the way

Cheers.

Chris