Don't throw a fit when....

[kev]

Purge runs a big race today, after getting beat in his last three under Pletcher ( what he lost 3 in a row under Pletcher, how could this be I though he was a super trainer ) chill out guys, it happens. He\'s just getting started in his 5yr old year and his pattern is showing signs and coming back around to a big effort. Cole Norman has two horses in this race, let\'s talk about these (ST). I think Intelligent Male at 10-1 has a better chance to run his race than Absent Friend 5-1 he does have the little break threw number in his last. I only like IM to run in the 3rd or 4th spot though. Added Edge 9-2 I like, to maybe give Purge all he can handle today. Let\'s hear from some of you all...and not after the race bitching about this and that.
Mauk Four--Just ran a new top in last, and at best maybe a pair up which isnt going to get it done, but I look for a little back up off that 1.2, The Lady\'s Groom--2nd off a layoff, I don\'t see any reason for him to fire his top today, Gigawatt--Has numbers in here to win this race, I don\'t like the high bounce in his last start might run in the middle of his top and the last,not for me. Clays Awesome--New top in last, even if he jumps again, it\'s not fast enough. River MT. RD--Just like the last could jump forward, would need to 2 1/2 pt jump to be in it, I liked this one better to jump( could get into the tri\'s today ) than Clays A. Separto--This one better start doing some running, 3rd start into his 4yr old year, and should be moving past those 2\'s.....could be at the end of his line.

[shanahan]

agree that Purge should run big, and Albarado flying up cements it as my top pick as well.  Separato is the topic of much discussion here in Hot Springs - it\'s the # 2 horse inthe barn, and as such, needs to bring in some $$.  His recent races do not suggest he is ready for other graded winners, but he did close with a flourish in last, shows a bullet since, and will be my choice to button up the exacta, boxing purge,added, & separato.  

As for Mr. Norman, well...

[miff]

JB,
I called the office to verify the last number(19) for this horse. The office confirmed it. Beyer has the race for this horse app 8 1/2 lengths better that the prior race and two other sources have the last race better by 6-8 lengths(than the prior race) You have it equal to CP\'s prior two races.I also feel that the last tg fig is way out of whack having seen all three of Curly\'s Prides races.We all know about ground and weight re Beyer to TG and since it\'s not THAT relevant on this occasion, please look elsewhere.

I hope you will recheck the fig because there seems to either be an input error or this \"tied back\" to the last race methodology has reared it\'s ugly inaccurate head.CP\'S prior two races(abominations both) were also given tg figs of 19-ish.Thanks.

[TGAB]

JB is away for a long weekend. He\'ll look at this when he returns. But it doesn\'t appear to be an input error.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Kev, first off, Purge is 4 and I\'m not even looking at the form.

Second off, no one was bitching AFTER the race. I was bitching BEFORE. It was absolutely clear the mechanics had their horses well tuned for the day. Its a combination of things, but somehow its easier to have them jazzed for the big races at the Fairgrounds.

Bailey on Badge of Silver:

\"I had a whole lot left in the middle of the turn,\" said Bailey, \"but at the head of the stretch I only had a little left. I guess the other horses used up a lot just to catch up.\":

http://www.drf.com/news/article/63369.html

What is interesting to note is that Badge opened up at this point. I\'m convinced in reading this that even Bailey is in some disbelief. Either that or feigning.

\"Speed is holding\"

Speed held up in the Louisiana Derby because the fractions were moderate for 8.5 marks and the closers just didn\'t fire. It wasn\'t unforeseeable. You definitely knew without Silent Bid and Electric Light winging there was gonna be less pace to run at. Still, it was FAR too easy:

23.56, 47.36, 1:11.85, 1:36.26, 1:42.74

The Speed in the Fair Grounds Oaks held up because they crawled early and they were far enough in front to hold on. I think Summerly laid over them too:

24.45, 49.04, 1:13.37, 1:37.54, 1:43.79

The Speed in the New Orleans Handicap was top quality and Wanderin Boy was gunning for the lead. He cooked himself and BOS let the field come to him, rebroke and won easily. I\'m not sure how much he was tiring the last eighth or how much he was being wrapped up. I\'ve never seen the cheating better displayed. The fractions from this race where the best all day sprint and route.

22.66, 45.55, 1:10.15, 1:35.64, 1:48.78

Yeah, speed was holding. Frankel and Pletcher are holding too, if you\'re a horse needing a fix.

Who cares about Purges chances? I hope he shears off three hooves at the pasterns and wins on three stumps in record time.



Post Edited (03-13-05 12:31)

[kev]

OK, if you say so.

CTC,

I agreed with your analysis of the FG track yesterday up until the New Orleans Handicap. There was no reason to think the track was favoring speed because 2 of the prior stakes were taken wire to wire by horses that got easy leads in slow places. They were good horses to begin with. No surprise there. If I thought the track was playing speed, I wouldn\'t have bet against BOS, but I did.

However, after BOS\'s super effort after dueling you had to at least become suspicious enough to look at the next two dirt races. Both of those also went wire to wire and one was won by a very big longshot.

I can\'t say for certain the track was speed favoring, but there\'s no way you can dismiss that possibility and consider yourself unbiased. Let\'s face it, you want to convict Frankel without evening considering the possibility that BOS was the best horse in the race to begin with (which he obviously was given that he went off at 6-5). He was also incredibly game in the Cigar despite losing.

I bet against him because I thought 9F was not his optimal distance and because I thought Limehouse was ready to move forward. I knew full well that BOS was the best horse though. Maybe, just maybe, the track carried him a little further than he would have run on an honest track.

Personally, I see no stretch of the facts to say that the best horse in the race was able to overcame a fast pace and win with a little help from the track. In fact, despite my loss, IMO that\'s the most likely conclusion.

I think The Lady\'s Groom might be coming up to this OK. IMO, he raced well against the best horses last year (when fit) and he probably needed his last off a layoff. In his last he steadied slightly on the backstretch, then picked it up to get into the thick of it during the fast 2nd quarter of the race using himself quite hard before weakening. 8.5 is probably his best distance too. I\'m not saying he\'s the most likely winner, but he\'s a contender that may be overlooked. The other contenders are more obvious.

[spa]

I bet Purge, he owes me a ton. I was visiting in Parump, Nevada and made the bet at a small sports book. All the cat houses were closed for church.

I think Purge\'s race in the Cigar was a lot better than it looks. That race got really hot in the middle and he and BOS were used really hard on the lead. (BOS\'s form since then has verified my impression of that race pace - described in my post race analysis of the Cigar). It was also Purge\'s first race off a freshening and he really couldn\'t be expected to be 100% fit enough for Grade 1 older horses at that time even though Pletcher usually has them in good shape. It\'s his last race I can\'t explain. I was expecting better. His last race was really his only bad one. The Travers and Belmont are throwouts on distance (belmont also pace) and in the Ark Derby he was used up forcing the much superior Smarty Jones in a decent pace. If you can explain his last to me, I\'d think he has a very huge shot today. Hey he has a good shot anyway, but I\'d like to be able to explain the lastrace  before considering short odds.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well, most days you\'d have to like the Lady\'s Groom\'s chances here. He is third choice at an on its face attactive 11-1.

Its also not the value race the killers lay in ambush for, so maybe the two juice animals won\'t be fully cranked.

Its a crapshoot and I\'m gonna watch.

11-1 looks very attractive to me on TLG. The biggest problem he faces is speed inside and outside him plus a potentially very sharp Purge prompting. TLG tends to get involved in the pace. If he rates a little inside, that might be the right move. Added Edge might like the pace he gets to run at.



Post Edited (03-13-05 18:03)

I guess the juice Pletcher used was the same bad batch he used for Purge\'s last race. :-)
Lady\'s Groom obviously didn\'t move forward 2nd off the layoff.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Purge clearly has something bothering him. You had to suspect it after last race.

White Mercedes scores again.

Yea, I got involved in the race with Added Edge and TLG to key against Purge. I was right but didn\'t cash.