Sheets of 2 Prep Horses

[jimbo66]

I am sure somebody better attuned to reading sheets will give a better analysis, but I find the results very intesting when you look at the sheets Jerry posted.

18 horses ran well off their tops in the Derby (2 points or more, with many horses well more than 2 points off their top).

I see only 5 horses that \"paired up\" to their tops (within 2 points).

As for new tops, I count 5 horses, Essence of Dubai, Proud Citizen, Lemon Drop Kid, Worldly Manner and Victory Gallup.

Johannesburg, China Visit, Eltish, Ski Captain and Citadeed had not enough races with figures to truly measure their performance in the Derby.

I don\'t believe Aptitude or Real Quiet belong on this list.  They had January preps.  The \"rule\' we are discussing is 3 preps in the 3 year old season prior to the Derby.  I know they had layoffs after their first prep, but that is a different discussion, not this one.

I don\'t know what anybody else thinks of the sheets that were posted and their conclusions, but it shows a good majority of horses coming in with 2 preps ran miserable races.  However, it also shows that there are exceptions the rule, especially if you have a quality animal, like Lemon Drop Kid or Victory Gallup.

The fact that so few horses were even able to approach their tops is a telling sign to me.  For young three year olds, who should be improving, that is such an aberration it has to have statistical merits to it.

[beyerguy]

The distance is probably a factor coming so early in the horse\'s career.  A horse running a 5 at 6f as a 2yo in July is in no way capable of running that same 5 at 9 furlongs in July.

This is an exaggerated case of course, but the principle holds.  A 3 year old in May is going to be better at 9 furlongs than at 10.  How much better, I don\'t know, and at what point in time does this stop, I don\'t know that either.  But I know a horse is not fully developed as a 3yo in May, so you will see faster numbers the shorter the distance.  Just my opinions of course.

I agree with all your conclusions with one \"question mark\".

Of the horses that did improve none actually won.

That raises the question I brought up earlier.

How do we know that the horses that did improve weren\'t behind the rest of the crop because they had less experience and fewer preps coming in?

If they were, even though they improved, they were disadvantaged in terms of chances of actually winning.

Perhaps Victory Gallup would have won  despite ground loss etc.. with just a little more experience.

The figures alone have limitations.

James Quinn is a big believer in 10F being a kind of seperator among horses vs 9F. I  know he also believes that 3YO horses that don\'t really want 10F in the spring often can get it later in their 3YO year with more experience. I am assuming he has studied that. I never did, but it is consistent with my observations.

Davidowitz weighed in on the issue in the DRF Chart weekly recently.

[jbelfior]

CH--


As in \"CAME HOME\" as an example.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

Joe,

That\'s one example. I seen others over the years but I haven\'t studied the issue carefully. I\'m a fan of Quinn though. If we open the issue too far we will wind up with further disagreements about how important distance is.

[jbelfior]

CH--

Everyone has their viewpoint. That\'s what makes this such a great game and what makes this board so interesting.

Reading the posts here certainly helps get me through my boring day in the business world.


Good Luck,
Joe B.