Sweet Catomine

[NoCarolinaTony]

Going into this year I did not think highly of the 3 yo male group and thought thst SC was a freak for her genration based on racing performance. I had a buddy of mine owe me on a various different bets and had him place the amount owed on SC in Derby pool #1 at 21-1 odds. ($100). I still think she has a legit chance to win derby vs this group of 3 yo Males  based on past speed figs and current conditioning. Im sure the next race will tell a lot about her ability.

Anyone else think she has a real chance to win Derby or am I in fantasy land?

NC Tony

[gvido]

The TGI for Storm Cat offspring improves 3.75 pts from 2>3yo. Far easier to improve when the average is 16.75 for 2yo\'s. Going from a 1.75> to a -2, for a filly hmmmmmm.

I\'m guessing her 2nd effort in \'05 wasn\'t close to her top either. That\'ll be close to 5 months not reaching her best. The mantra is healthy spring 3yo\'s should be returning to their top often. But in her case, she improved 9.25pts in two races to get down to the 1.75 in the BC [plus a little bi notation]. I feel she\'s a filly that topped out already and she won\'t improve, just like two other \'super fillies\' Halfbridled and Storm Flag Flying.

Does that mean she can\'t win the SA Derby? NO! The west coast colts are nothing special, [Consolidator is moving east] her winning would not be a surprise. Ky Derby is a different story.

[Kasept]

gvido..

What\'s your take on the thought that Canani has really asked her for nothing in these first two \'05 starts, saving it for the next two?

I have a hard time believing she can just \"get faster again\" next week and May 7.. BUT, watching the two starts, they really were for all intents and purpose, jogs.

Doesn\'t it just all come down to what she runs in the SA Derby..? If there\'s any indication that she is back near or at her BCJF \"form\", isn\'t she as \"capable\" as any of the highly suspect lads?

I think she\'s being brought up to the Derby as perfectly as is possible and will run a better race in the SA Derby than she has run  so far this year (even if she doesn\'t earn quite as fast a figure against a tougher more demanding field than she\'s faced so far).

However, there is one negative.

Aside from the probability of her line improving from 2 to 3, my research indicates that fillies tend to be ahead of colts from a development standpoint as 2YOs and early 3YOs (closer to their eventual peak). That\'s why you often see exceptional 2YO fillies running faster than the best colts on BC day. However as you move into the spring the colts tends move past them. Given that she is not ahead of them now, I think it is fairly likely that one or more colts is going to fire a shot in the remaining preps that will make her look much less likely to win on Derby day than she looks right now.

Assuming I am right that a few colts step forward, the best case scenario for bettors is that she beats a weak crop of colts in CA (except Consolidator) and is bet heavily in the Derby off reputation and press build up.

She may wind up as a huge underlay.

If no one steps forward and she does improve a little more like I expect, having her 21-1 doesn\'t sound too bad though. :-)

[Kasept]

\"Given that she is not ahead of them now, I think it is fairly likely that one or more colts is going to fire a shot in the remaining preps that will make her look much less likely to win on Derby day than she looks right now.\"


CH.. That\'s part of the quandry with her though... Do we KNOW \"she is not ahead of them now\"? And not ahead of who? Consolidator, High Limit...? Fine. So be it. Who else has \"moved past her\"?

To me the most intriguing question to be answered in these preps is the one that focuses on what Canani did then, did since and does now with SC. If she has truly been on auto-pilot this whole time and now starts her season in earnest, I think it makes her eligible Derby Day. (And I\'m a recent convert to this viewpoint).

I also think her running style helps her if she makes the Derby field. She\'s one of very few stalker/just off runners in the group that has demonstrated a legitimate turn of foot that can reach contention at the right time. (Don\'t Get Mad is another).

kasept,

So far, I don\'t think she has run a race as good as Consolidator, Sun King, and High Fly have. A good case can also be made for High Limit, Bandini, and a few that haven\'t done it routing yet.

I don\'t think she has been wound up all the way though. So I guess we will find out more in the SA Derby.

As a general rule though, I think is it likely that one or more of the above (or someone else) will move past her based on what I have seen to date (including her spectacular 2YO race).

If a few of the above fall apart between now and then, it would certainly improve her chances. I don\'t think evaluating her is that easy. I really like how she is being handled and that last race was such a slow pace the figure may be misleading. She only ran for about 3 furlongs.



Post Edited (04-01-05 10:41)

[elkurzhal]

\"Aside from the probability of her line improving from 2 to 3, my research indicates that fillies tend to be ahead of colts from a development standpoint as 2YOs and early 3YOs (closer to their eventual peak).\"

I\'ve heard this often, but wonder if the facts actually bear it out.  We have the TGI for fillies and colts, and for 2yo, 3yo, etc...  I wonder if it would be worth running a study breaking the TGI for age out by sex.

elk,

I never studied it using TG figures, but I did keep average winning Beyer figures for stakes caliber horses of all ages, sexes, surfaces etc... for many years.

The gap between fillies and colts at 2 was narrower than it was for mature horses on a fairly consistent basis.