Five Weeks Rest

HP,

The fractions of the Florida Derby were signficantly faster than the 2 other routes that day that ended in a similar final time.

Even though HF did not \"set the pace\"  in the traditional sense of the phrase, he \"ran fractions\" (his own pace) that were still faster than the other routes that day because he wasn\'t far off BBB.

I have yet to see a set of actual pace figures for the day, but if beyerguy says that the numeric pace figures confirm my initial impression, I believe him because I know he makes them for Florida, I know he is competent, and I know he has a sincere interest in discussing the issue and learning. He\'s not here to try to discredit me with BS.

So when we say he is better than he looks on paper, what we mean is that had he run slightly slower fractions, he would have run a faster final time and beaten those horses by more.



Post Edited (04-04-05 11:25)

[Frank]

HP,

\"Five weeks rest is no good. Nobody\'s ever gotten anywhere with it.\"

I disagree. Five weeks rest will prove out to be ideal in the upcoming years if Gulfstream leaves the Florida Derby at this new date. Nobody\'s gotten anywhere with it because there has never been a suitable prep five weeks out.

I agree with every other word you wrote. Absolute gibberish is right.

Frank

[beyerguy]

I haven\'t sat down and done the actual figures yet, but I have done enough to know that if I give a speed figure similar to Beyer\'s, 102, the pace figure to the 6f mark will be 119 or so.  That\'s pretty quick.  It\'s also not to hard to believe if you watch the cavalry charge into the first turn again.  The \"extended\" runup has done nothing to alleviate the built in bias against outside posts for 1 1/8 mile races at GP.  3 or 4 horses were done before they had travelled a furlong in my opinion.

[BitPlayer]

Class -

Beyer and Brisnet use different scales.  For example, Beyer assigns more points per length at 9 furlongs.  I think the two scales cross at about 100, but I\'ve never tried to figure it out with any precision.  I don\'t use Beyer\'s figures any more.

When I said that Beyer didn\'t have the race \"that fast,\" I meant that he has other Derby preps faster (the Lousiana Derby and San Felipe for instance).  In general, Brisnet seems to think more of the Gulfstream Derby preps than Beyer.

Beyer,

Thank you. Our visual impressions are similar and the fractions speak for themselves.


\"I haven\'t sat down and done the actual figures yet, but I have done enough to know that if I give a speed figure similar to Beyer\'s, 102, the pace figure to the 6f mark will be 119 or so. That\'s pretty quick. It\'s also not to hard to believe if you watch the cavalry charge into the first turn again. The \"extended\" runup has done nothing to alleviate the built in bias against outside posts for 1 1/8 mile races at GP. 3 or 4 horses were done before they had travelled a furlong in my opinion\".



Post Edited (04-04-05 13:22)

[Bally Ache]

Silver Charm said no one has run a 1 1/8 faster.  Not true - Rockport Harbor did it as a 2 YEAR OLD.

Several of you compare this horse favorably to Eurosilver, and rightly so.  BUT, who the hell is Eurosilver.  Granted he\'s an older colt but he\'s yet to prove he\'s of the first rank.

To me, the only thing impressive about High Fly is, he survived that fast pace.  What did he beat?

When they get to the 1/8 pole at CD on May 7 I think HighFly will be looking for a taxicab.

Maybe Rockport Harbor is out of the picture or, in the picture when he should be out.  This started out looking like a good bunch of 3yos but J. Brown\'s field bet is looking better all the time.

I have a friend who has Lost In The Fog & Rockport Harbor in the second pool at what he thought were good odds.  These horses are so fragile maybe everything but the field is an underlay in futures.

[beyerguy]

Bally Ache wrote:

When they get to the 1/8 pole at CD on May 7 I think HighFly
will be looking for a taxicab.

If he\'s in front at the 1/8 pole, I\'d take my chances.  Very, very few horses get passed when in front at the 1/8 pole of the Run for the Roses!

[davidrex]

    HP

 the pace scenerio is finalized after comparing some or all the things that brown has to incorporate for our #.we dont ask jerry to hurry give me the bottom line.
 pace is a race within THE RACE.surely an animal can be affected by high early speed or horse & jock can remove themselves from chasing.its simple ...a toorrid pace ,some gun,some stay within their style.
 find a hoss that ran fast early and finshes fast....you got an edge!

  many great pace guys on net...if you are falling asleep to this defense of c.h. than maybe you should step back and find another dog to kick...although he does ramble...the guy has plenty good stuff to say...now if we could only get readers digest to condense his thoughts  PARTYpokerON

david,

\"now if we could only get readers digest to condense his thoughts\"

ROTFLOL.

Thanks.

It\'s tough being me.

If I use phrases like \"IMO\", \"I think\", \"could be\" etc... I get trashed for not having firm convictions and wind up wasting time explaining myself.

If I state things as if they are fact I get trashed for having theories I can\'t prove and wind up wasting time explaining myself.

Most of the time my point is that it\'s OK to think in grey terms in a game as complex as this where no one has the answers in black and white and everyone is thinking differently when making their figures.



Post Edited (04-04-05 12:01)

[HP]

I can\'t think of ONE horse that\'s run well off this much rest in the Derby.  I\'ll stick to my guns.  At 4-1, let him prove me wrong.  At 8-1 it might be another story...  

\"The fractions of the Florida Derby were signficantly faster than the 2 other routes that day that ended in a similar final time.\"

\"So when we say he is better than he looks on paper, what we mean is that had he run slightly slower fractions, he would have run a faster final time and beaten those horses by more.\"

Who\'s \"we?\"  Stand on your own two feet, please.  You just have no way of knowing this is true.  No way!  Think about what you\'re saying.  He could\'ve run a \"faster final time\" by running \"slightly slower fractions?\"  How could he do that?  The more I get into this with you the more I realize that you just don\'t know what you\'re talking about.  

If he would\'ve run slightly slower fractions, he would\'ve had more work to do in the stretch to catch up, PERIOD.  Somewhere in here, you probably mean to say something about how the ACTUAL pacesetters ran (i.e., if they had run slower early), but I DON\'T HAVE THE REST OF MY LIFE TO FIGURE THIS OUT.  

This will do it for posting for awhile.  Enjoy!  

Davidrex, OF COURSE pace makes the race.  There is no insight whatsoever into this phenomenon in any of CH\'s posts.  Do YOU believe horse\'s can run FASTER final times by running SLOWER fractions?  Come on.  It\'s totally ridiculous.  

HP

[ezgoer89]

Answer: Deputy Rummy, Speedwell Beau, Salty Punch, Isle of Mirth, Risky Trick, Mr. Spock, Two Down Automatic, Pro Prado, Purge, Borrego?

Question: Who were the place & show horses behind Smarty Jones entering the Ky. Derby?

Not very impressive... but it doesn\'t mean a thing. High Fly wins, he\'s sound and dead fit, and can be placed in a perfect position in a race.  What is the evidence for not wanting 10f?  Gut feeling?

I believe HF\'s pattern is 2, 4, 1\", 1\", 3\", then Florida Derby.  Run another 1\" saving ground in the Derby and dare someone to run a 0.

[beyerguy]

HP wrote:

\"He could\'ve run a \"faster final time\" by
running \"slightly slower fractions?\"  How could he do that?
The more I get into this with you the more I realize that you
just don\'t know what you\'re talking about.\"

OK HP, of course, I don\'t know what kind of shape you are in.  I\'m in OK shape for a soon to be 38 year old guy.  I can run 2 miles running 1:30 1/4s to finish in 12 minutes.  

I can also run under 1:00 for 1/4 pretty easily if that\'s all I\'m going to run.  However, if I run that 1:00 for the first lap, there is no way I will run a faster than that 12:00 for the 2 miles, and almost certain I will run slower, and quite a bit slower.  And guess what, it has nothing to do with whether I\'m running in front of the pack or behind the pack, or even in the middle.

Of course, I\'m not a horse, and this example is pretty extreme.  But, it holds in horse racing as well.  You just have to know what \"extreme\" is as far as the pace goes.

[beyerguy]

HP, again:

\"Do YOU believe horse\'s can run FASTER final times by running SLOWER fractions? Come on. It\'s totally ridiculous.\"

Ridiculous?  Hardly.  The fastest way to get around the track is at an even pace from start to finish.  The slower you go, the faster time you will finish in, to a point.  You can\'t go too slow, or you could never make the time up later.  It\'s really common sense, and hardly ridiculous.

[HP]

\"Ridiculous? Hardly. The fastest way to get around the track is at an even pace from start to finish. The slower you go, the faster time you will finish in, to a point. You can\'t go too slow, or you could never make the time up later. It\'s really common sense, and hardly ridiculous.\"

I could take this apart, but I\'m tired.  \"The slower you go, the faster time you will finish in...\"  You may be running faster at the end if you ran slow early, but your FINAL time would be impacted by your slow early effort.  \"...to a point.\"  While YOU figure out where this point is, I will pursue other things that are actually of use on Earth...

Really, as I read it over again...ridiculous.  I think you guys are TRYING to say something that makes some amount of sense, but put together, you\'re not getting there.  If this is the state of pace handicapping, you guys can have it.

\"I can also run under 1:00 for 1/4 pretty easily if that\'s all I\'m going to run. However, if I run that 1:00 for the first lap, there is no way I will run a faster than that 12:00 for the 2 miles, and almost certain I will run slower, and quite a bit slower.\"

Could be true under absolutely static conditions.  Now apply this to a 3yo racehorse who is really supposed to be GETTING BETTER every time out.  It\'s meaningless.  Just a completely useless example that illustrates absolutely nothing.  Really.  It may not even be true.  If you ran really fast early and got a break after that you might beat the 12:00 for the two miles.  It\'s a definite possibility.  

\"And guess what, it has nothing to do with whether I\'m running in front of the pack or behind the pack, or even in the middle.\"

We agree.  I quit.  

HP

[Michael D.]

there are times when horses go too fast early and call it quits. occasionally a horse will run a :21 first quarter and stop. given a slower first quarter, the horse may not have stopped. there are times when horses run faster final times by running slower fractions.



Post Edited (04-04-05 13:41)