Five Weeks Rest

[HP]

Michael,

What happened, I thought we were friends?

Tell you what, give one example and PROVE IT.  PROVE to me that the horse ran a faster final time by running slower fractions...  

I can\'t imagine an avenue LESS likely to lead to handicapping profits...  Can\'t we switch back to talking about jockeys again?  You had some good ones there...  

HP

[Michael D.]

hahah, still friends. it happens, you know it, jerry knows it, we all know it. point well taken about profits though. i don\'t read a lot of successful PRE RACE posts that focus on pace.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Unless he gets Post\'s 18-20 then its a different race for High Fly.

[Michael D.]

tony,
watch JD\'s ride on grindstone. given HF\'s tactical speed, bailey will work out the trip. it\'s the last eighth, rather than the post i worry about.

[HP]

Michael,

There is actually an excellent demonstration of this phenomenon and it happened in the 1973 Kentucky Derby.  It\'s INCREDIBLY rare, but yes, it DOES happen.  It just doesn\'t happen often enough to be used in this debate.  The people throwing these examples around have no idea how rare it really is!  

Good luck.

HP

[beyerguy]

HP,

Noone ever said this is the be all and end all of handicapping.  I agree with the boss, most races pace is a minimal or non existent factor.  There is one thing I would point out however, lots of your competition believes these things, so even if you don\'t buy it, it might help you at the windows to understand why certain horses are being bet.

Your \"Prove It\" thing is not really appropriate here on this board.  I could post many examples , but this board is about final time measured as accurately as humanly possible, which I have no doubt that it is.  Most times, this is the answer.  Sometimes, it is not.

[Michael D.]

ok hp, your big letters are scaring me away. we disagree on the probability of the event happening. fair enough.....BTW, nice hit on the TP race back there.



Post Edited (04-04-05 14:06)

[beyerguy]

I just don\'t see how you can assume people are so wrong or don\'t know anything because you don\'t agree.  If it was as rare as you seem to think, I would have moved on to a different method, or I\'d be broke.  I haven\'t moved, and I\'m far from broke.  I\'ll leave it at that.

[HP]

Beyerguy,

As CH as pointed out, Jerry is the arbiter of this board.  You win at the track with your slow fractions faster final times analysis?  Great.  \"Prove it\" stands until JB takes it down.  

I addressed \"prove it\" to Michael, but feel free to post all your examples and illustrations of how you\'ve made money with this.  Why isn\'t it appropriate?  Why are you withholding this info?  I would really like to know.  

I don\'t assume anything.  I read what\'s posted and I respond.  And just because I don\'t agree doesn\'t mean the I think the other person is wrong.  Show me how it works and prove that a horse ran a faster final time BECAUSE of slower fractions, and furthermore, that\'s why YOU made money.  

Sorry to challenge these assumptions.  

Michael,

Thanks.  This week was a bust.  Feast or famine.  I hate Gulfstream.  I hope the Derby doesn\'t turn out as chalky as it looks today...  

HP

[Silver Charm]

HP,

Smarty Jones was 4.5 lengths faster than High Fly and went off at 4-1 only because Cella hedged his Bonus bet at Oaklawn. high Fly will be 7-1 or 8-1. He may actually be about 12-1 because plenty of people such as yourself will say that a horse with excellant tactical speed, a solid mile and one eighth bottom and Jerry Bailey riding cannot win because he is coming in on Five Weeks Rest.

>I believe HF\'s pattern is 2, 4, 1\", 1\", 3\", then Florida Derby. Run another 1\" saving ground in the Derby and dare someone to run a 0.


ezgoer89,

and to think you will be getting 12 or maybe 15-1 on this horse

[beyerguy]

HP,

It\'s not appropriate because it does not deal with TG numbers.  I can\'t go back in history and see what so and so ran for a TG figure, I can only do that with my own.

I\'ll give a quick example, Azeri\'s 2004 campaign, since I have the TG numbers handy.  She returned at Oaklawn earning a Beyer style speed figure of 116.  I don\'t know if that\'s the actual Beyer, but it is the same scale.  Her pace number was 103.  

She didn\'t go two turns again until Saratoga, where she went 107 pace, 109 final.  Faster pace = slower race.  Yes, she was wider, but that also means she was running a faster early than that 107 gives credit for.

She next was ran into submission, the Storm Flag Flying race, and I gave her a pace-speed combo of 113-96.  

Her final pre BC race was the Spinster at Kee, where she went 98-100 in what was essientally a workout, and she was wide the whole way.  Taking ground into account (which I don\'t do normally, not because I don\'t want to, but because it isn\'t possible for me) would have put this race right around the 107-109 she got at Saratoga.

So, we have:

103-116 (TG -1.5)
107-109 (TG -1.5)
113-96  (TG 2 hot pace designation)
98-100  (TG -1.5)

Breeder\'s Cup, Azeri got a TG 1.5, which I would attribute to having to run faster early than she is comfortable with keeping up with the boys, even though she wasn\'t up front.

This is not rare, especially with top class horses.  These numbers take weight into account, but not ground as I\'ve said.

beyerguy,

\"I agree with the boss, most races pace is a minimal or non existent factor.\"

One comment and I am out of here.

I happen to agree with the above also and know that you appreciate the following. It\'s just a note for anyone that cares.

It\'s important to remember that within the same race, horses not only have different styles, but they also have different abilities. So if one horse cuts a fast pace and runs back to his number, that does not mean the horse that was up there dueling with him will also run back to his number or that the pace had no impact.

Expressed numerically:

If horse \"A\" is a 110 horse, he can run a
110 pace and still run a 110 final time.

If horse \"B\" is a 100 horse and runs a 110 pace inside the same race, his 100 speed figure will probably drop into the 90s.

If you don\'t quite understand this, you may not appreciate that the pace is impacting the race even if it didn\'t impact the winner\'s final time.



Post Edited (04-04-05 17:21)

[Bally Ache]

Has it been firmly established that \"jd\",as  you guys call him, will ride High Fly at CD?  I\'m sure he\'ll have a mount next Sat. in the Wood.  Probably a mount at Oak or Kee the following week & maybe one at Kee the week after that.

What will you say if Bailey doesn\'t even ride the horse?  Nothing, because you\'ll have forgotten these comments and moved on to some other horse du jour.

The race that everyone cares about, even those who don\'t know a furlong from a fetlock, is still five weeks away.

[davidrex]

   just finished reading s.c.\'s opening on 5 weeks,how and where did we end up so off target and embittered about pace? together we move mutuels divided we just plain bicker.
   since our leader leans toward being abrasive ...well theres just no call for others on this board to follow suit
   lets make a conserted effort to enlighten the conversation rather than needlessly attack one another[or defend]

             PARTYpokerON

[TGJB]

David-- if you read the first 5 posts on that string in order I think it will be pretty clear how it became a discussion of pace.