Briefly...

[TGJB]

...because I really do have a lot to do.

CH-- the first post of yours I read when I came illustrates exactly the point I (and others) have made about you. The comparison between Eurosilver and High Fly\'s performances was an effort to work out what TG number HF ran, because after all this IS A TG BOARD. But you decided that the conversation should be about your theories, so that\'s the conversation you wanted to have. Man, are you annoying.

Beyerguy-- As I have said here before, I do believe that in extreme cases a fast pace can compromise performance of those who overdo it, and your human example certainly would qualify-- but the fraction is 1/3 faster. The difference between, say, 46 flat and 48, is much less in percentage terms.

Richie-- I have no idea what the blood clot means, or what they\'ll have to do to deal with it. But if RH does get to run before the Derby and goes forward to a 2 or better, he\'s a serious threat. No idea whether he will-- that\'s why it\'s so important to wait until April before developing opinions on the Derby-- and sometimes May, when they draw.

[beyerguy]

No doubt TGJB, that is why I say the trick is to know what qualifies as extreme, which is not easy for sure.

TGJB,

Someone else said that Euro and HF had similar trips. I said no they didn\'t. In simple terms I said the fractions were a lot different and that might matter. I would have been happy to leave it at that.

What you really want is for me to not handicap races or analyze horses\' performances outside the parameters of TG theory - which means you want me to leave.



Post Edited (04-04-05 13:46)

[Michael D.]

class,
give a PRE RACE post based on pace, see what happens. you type in thousands of words about these races, but your pace analysis never leads to a score. i like some of your theories and i think you understand the game, but come on now, just one PRE RACE hit?

[beyerguy]

One other thing, paths and weight also certainly affect what is \"extreme\" as well.  While a fraction might only seem moderately fast for a horse hugging the rail around the first turn at GP in a 1 1/8 mile race, a horse parked 4 wide on the first turn is running much faster fractions early if he is close up.  Again, its very tricky stuff, and tough to quantify, but it doesn\'t mean the final figure isn\'t affected.

As for the 5 week layoff, I\'d love to know your take TGJB.  I don\'t see how it can be viewed as a negative given High Fly\'s preparation so far.  What do you think?

Michael,

I posted a few winners here and have pointed out a few suspect favorites that ran like crap. As you can tell, I rarely bet because I rarely see much value on the odds board. They don\'t pay me to churn money the way lots of other people do. Most of the horses I bet have about 15%-25% chance of winning. So I have plenty of dry periods just like everyone else.

[TGJB]

CH-- he said similar trips in the context of trying to figure out the TG number, RIGHT???
The point where he talked about Eurosilver\'s top and the nine pound difference should have been the tipoff. And difference in trips in that context means ground loss.

Hopefully my last post on the pace stuff today, but I doubt it-- some might recall that the other reason we posted the three races from La Derby day (reposted here yesterday, \"Re: Vicarage\", etc, 16:10)), was that the three stakes, run at similar (identical?) route distances, had three completely disparate pace scenarios-- 6f in 11.85, 13.37, and 10.15. It not only made no difference in the final times, it made no difference in the figure relationships (performances) within the races, once you accounted for weight and ground loss.

[Michael D.]

class,
i don\'t doubt you can handicap, and i am certainly no expert, but your theories will hold a lot more water if you could give a simple pre race post, explaining how the pace will affect the horses, and how you can make some money based on that analysis. we are all wrong on most of our posts, it\'s the nature of the game. it\'s just that all of these post race theories are getting us nowhere.

[TGJB]

Beyerguy-- haven\'t done the figure yet, but assuming HF ran back to his top or better, I think the extra rest is a big plus. He\'s put in a lot of big efforts, and Zito has become something of a layoff trainer (Birdstone/Bellamy Road/Sun King), which is kind of amazing.

Michael,

>you could give a simple pre race post, explaining how the pace will affect the horses, and how you can make some money based on that analysis.<

I sometimes have strong views on how a pace WILL impact a race prior, but usually not. I think the only occasion I did that pre race was when Lion Tamer won the 1M race in NY (I didn\'t bet him though). In the end, we couldn\'t even agree on whether the pace was actually fast and helped him win. Some people were looking at the 4F fraction or 6f furlong fraction and I was evaluating it visually and thought there was one extremely fast internal fraction (2nd quarter) that took some starch out the duelers.
   
Most of my strong views come from post race analysis of performances.

I think it\'s time to end this discussion. :-)

[ninefingers]

Mr Handicapper,

Are you semi-retarded?