Preakness Picks

[tread]

Can\'t argue much with JBs analysis, but I do have a couple differnet points to add.  Here\'s how the race shapes up to me:

Not Good Enough
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Menacing Dennis
Equality
EasyFromGitGo
Magic Weisner
Booklet

Big Bounce
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Table Limit
Proud Citizen

Little Bounce
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War Emblem
Medaglia Doro
Harlans Holiday

Pair/Forward with a shot to win
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USS Tinosa
Straight Gin
Crimson Hero

War Emblem can obviously bounce a little and still win.  The pace scneario sets up well for USST, SGin, and CHero.  CHero is a bit of a stretch, but I like the overall line and the breeding.

I saw SGin break his maiden over a GP track with a lot of moisture in it.  PIM will probably be somewhat moist on Sat as well.  He earned a 113 late pace rating that day, just the kind of effort needed here.  Throw out the last 2, they were over hard, fast, speed-favoring tracks.

My pick is to bet SGin straight out W/P and box USST, WarEmblem, and SGin for exacta.  Put these 3 over CHero, Oro, and Holiday for the tri.

Hope it doesn\'t come up sloppy and hope they can still race on the turf.  Good luck to all.....

[fastspeed]

have not read JB analysis yet but straight gin seems a stretch to me.  a pure figure play (perhaps, I remember he had a 2 or something - suckered me into playing him in the bg) but no other evidence to me that he is this class or that he is moving forward.  he was outclassed at op and kee - yes they are speed favoring but he was on or near the lead !  

the other zito horse would interest me more for a big exotic pay-out - think that the lex is underestimated.  EFTGG also had problems before that race and with a photo finish to repent on his resume could figure somewhere. gotta respect the derby horses (excl HH) but will try these two in exotics with them I think.

[tread]

Good points, and yes this is a stretch, but I am definitely willing to throw the TP race out given it was 2 weeks after his top and off the ship from FLA.  In the Bluegrass, he was 4th or 5th most of the way, never closer than 3 lengths from the lead.  That spells big trouble on that ring, I imagine they just gave up.  

With almost a guarntee of some level of moisture in the PIM track, this racing surface should be much differnt than those he saw in TP and KEE, I like this angle a lot.  I see a world of difference in dry, hard tracks opposed to those labeled good, or fast but just drying out, and I think Gin will find the running to his liking at a price.  Anything in the tri I would be happy with.

[JR]

This horse reminds me of AP Valentine, maybe just because of Zito, but he has been training very well and I wouldn\'t be surprised to see him run back to his 3 top.

[JR]

Actually, your points are fairly contradictory to JB\'s analysis and it is good to see. As pattern and bounce theorists, I think we have been taken out of our game, having been left a little shell shocked by the results of the Derby. Does our handicapping now have to include a fear factor for trainers Lukas and Baffert as we have for Dutrow and Lake? Isn\'t Proud Citizen a classic bounce? A 7pt. move in 4 weeks; 4th race in 6 weeks; coming in off of a 4pt. new top with just 2 weeks rest? And Table Limit. Isn\'t the rule of thumb that negative numbers knock horses out. This one lept out of his skin to do it, it was a big negative and he did it on the front end of a sprint!

I know that this kind of \"treat suspect extreme caution\" landed JB a really nice payday in KY, but does it have to become the norm so soon?

[MO]

Haven\'t seen JB\'s analysis but the thing about Table Limit is that he earned that negative number on an uncontested lead, which are by definition NOT taxing efforts.
If he can outrun the others into the first turn, that negative number or something close to it has a chance to reappear. Remember, Lukas had 2nd pick and drew right next to War Emblem. Lukas thinks TL can outrun WE to the first turn, otherwise he wouldn\'t have chosen that post. The question remains though, how far will TL go?
If he goes off at or over 15/1, I \'ll have some win money on him. Same with  Magic Weisner. War Emblem I will bet to win at 5/2. If he is shorter, I\'ll key him on top of exactas and trifectas.

MO

[Michael D.]

Thanks JR and Mark for the comments on U S S Tinosa. My strategy will be to move him up if the track seems to be playing towards speed, as my only issue with the horse is getting the last 1/8th. I will have JD on top, as I think Md\'O is still a relatively fresh horse, and is the most likely to run in the low \"2\" range. I will use HH as well, as I think he can get back to a \"2\" or \"3\" also. If the track is quick, I will throw in U S S Tinosa .....
other than that, I can\'t seem to come up with anything. Looks like I won\'t be the one buying dinner at Luger\'s this Saturday.