A dogmatic dilemma

[derby1592]

What if Hi Limit wins the Blue Grass (which certainly could happen)?

Then we have the following dilemma for the dogmatic players who insist that a horse cannot win the Derby off more than 28 days rest or with less than 3 preps as a 3yo.

Bellamy Road – Only 2 Derby preps
High Limit – Only 2 Derby preps
Blues and Royals – Only 1 Derby prep and only prepped in Dubai
High Fly – 5 weeks since last prep
Noble Causeway – 5 weeks since last prep

Do they toss all 5 or do they reluctantly admit that \"times, they are a changing.\'\"

Cheers.

Chris

Chris,

\"Do they toss all 5 or do they reluctantly admit that \"times, they are a changing.\'\"\"

Obviously, I have a huge problem with dogmatism to begin with.

Can\'t some people believe that training methods are changing, downgrade the chances of horses that don\'t fit their preferred method of preparation, and still think there\'s a very good chance that one of those 5 will win?

Personally, I don\'t get the 5 weeks since last prep angle at all.

Where did that one even come from?

I think they used to say that about the Belmont at one time, but I never heard it about the Derby until this year.



Post Edited (04-10-05 17:09)

[Silver Charm]

Good Post Derby and it deserves to be brought back to attention.

The horses you mentioned above may not win because of a variety of reasons and it may include the lack of an extra prep. But how about the trainers running this week who do not want to run too good with only three weeks rest.

Your point is well taken that times are changing. Should make for some good prices Derby Day particularly if the public hammers Bellamy Road.

SC,

\"Should make for some good prices Derby Day particularly if the public hammers Bellamy Road.\"

I\'ve already read enough skeptical thoughts about his performance to make me believe he will only be a lookwarm favorite at best given the analysis the Derby preps are likely to get in the build up to the race.

[SoCalMan2]

Very good post, Chris!

So, Classhandicapper, you have a problem with dogma?  That\'s a new one! Maybe we should call you Chuckles the Handicapper because I sure got a chuckle out of that one!  Where were you when I was pointing out that Beyer\'s article on Blues and Royals was overly dogmatic?  Yes, on exactly the same issue of this thread!!!  Oh yeah, you said Beyer was echoing your very own sentiments and you came to his rescue to point out that there was zero countervailing evidence!  Chris even went through the trouble of doing a study to try to get to the bottom of things.  I guess he and I are just symptomatic of the closedmindedness on this board which stifles your ingenuity.  You just KNOW that 2 or less preps are bad for a horse due to your brilliant reasoning.

I know, I know, here comes the very special fancy footwork again!  

Maybe dogma is okay as long as it is sticking it to the Arabs?  But if you are attacking an Italian or Jewish trainer, then that is going too far?  Is that it?

Anyway, I hope that your genius influences lots and lots of bettors with lots and lots of money.

[gvido]

You forgot the \"the Holy Grail\" fewer than 5 lifetime starts before the main event [none have ever hit the board]:

Blues and Royals 4
Flower Alley will have 4
Greeley\'s Galaxy 4
High Limit will have 4

[HP]

The toteboard will call the tune.  If I get a huge price on one of these horses it may be tempting to use him, and to hell with dogma.  For me, the five weeks rest is a bigger deal than the two preps, but dogma at 3-1 ain\'t dogma at 25-1!  

HP

SoCal,

You should re-read my thoughts on the subject because you obviously misunderstood them.

This is the gist of what I said:

All else being equal, I would rather back a horse prepped traditionally because I know 100% for sure that that method works. There isn\'t enough evidence to satisfy me 100% that 1-2 preps is equally as effective. IMO there is at least some evidence that it is not. All of that evidence was rejected here because of the strong belief in speed figures as being able to explain almost everything (the small sampled TG study). No problem with the belief in speed figures, but I like to look at things from a lot of perspectives. (less dogmatic)

If I backed a horse with 1-2 preps I would insist on a slightly higher margin of safety in the price until such time that I am convinced 100% that it is just as effective.

I would be more likely to back a horse with 1 or 2 preps if it was trained by Bobby Frankel or some other equally talented trainer at prepreparing a horse off a layoff to go a distance of ground etc...

I agreed with Beyer\'s article that they were making a mistake with B&R, but thought he was dramatically overstating the case by saying the horse had no chance etc.... I used the word \"silly\" to describe his comments. Heck, at the right price I\'ll back that horse!

My only argument was that IMO bettors should be more conservative when it comes to betting these lightly prepped horses and insist on an extra tick on the board for taking on what could be slightly higher risk.

Others think there is no extra risk at all. That\'s cool, but I am less convinced. I can\'t lose anything by not betting unless I get an extra tick.



Post Edited (04-11-05 09:00)

[jbelfior]

A question?

If Nick Zito could get BIRDSTONE to win the Belmont at a 1 1/2 off of a 5 week layoff and the Travers off of a 2 month layoff, then why can\'t he get HIGH FLY or NOBLE CAUSEWAY to win the Derby at 1 1/4 off of a 5 week layoff?

Anyone think either one of these colts lack seasoning or conditioning?

Good Luck,
Joe B.

\"If Nick Zito could get BIRDSTONE to win the Belmont at a 1 1/2 off of a 5 week layoff....\"

I agree.  

Frankel won the Belmont off 5 weeks also.

There is nothing intuitive to me about why 5 weeks would be much tougher than 4. There was nothing in any statistics I have ever compiled or seen that suggests that 5 weeks would be very difficult for a competent trainer (assuming it was intentional and not because of an interrupted training schedule).

[HP]

\"If Nick Zito could get BIRDSTONE to win the Belmont at a 1 1/2 off of a 5 week layoff....\"

Apples and oranges.  The Derby ain\'t the Belmont.  It\'s a totally different situation.  

The Derby generally has about 20 entrants.  They are on their toes and ready to go, pointed for the race.  The best horses are in their best form, ideally after a few preps, before getting too chewed up.  

The Belmont is a TOTALLY different story.  Beating 8 horses in the Belmont, half of whom are whacked out from running tough races in the Derby and Preakness, is a lot different than winning the Derby.  

Birdstone was ALL OUT to beat a horse that ran about the fastest spring campaign EVER (and danced every dance!).  And he needed plenty of help to do it, as the pace experts can detail...  Zito did a good job, but there were significant circumstances in his favor (weaker field, more tired horses).  

Caveat emptor.  

HP

[jbelfior]

CH--

Agreed. I would think at this point Todd Pletcher would rather have BANDINI coming in off of the Florida Derby than the Blue Grass. Interruptions in April are anything but good.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jbelfior]

HP--

I used the Belmont example only to illustrate trainer competency.

Agreed the Belmont is a different story....now how do you explain how he did it in the Travers. Those horses were not \"whacked out.\"


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[HP]

Hey Joe,

How do I explain what he did in the Travers?  He was a nice little horse on his good days!  

Seriously, I can speculate...

1. By the time August rolls around these horses have gone through some changes mentally/physically and maybe they can handle the variations in training a little better.  

2. The Travers doesn\'t have an auxiliary starting gate because of all the horses in the race.  

3. The horses have generally gone two turns a few more times...  

Some combination of these factors may help a horse do a better job of running well off a longer break.  Just the professionalism that comes with the experience...  Or I\'m just wrong.    

I just have a feeling winning the Derby on five weeks or more rest is a real long shot.  I like the idea of coming in off a regular routine.  Can\'t wait to see the tote!  

HP

One thing is certain. There are a lot of different opinions. I\'m getting pretty pumped about this race. With so many break out performances recently (and another set of preps to go) it\'s really shaping up to be a great Derby.