Sun King Tampa Number

[TGJB]

Jimbo, if you didn\'t like Sun King before, you\'re really not going to like him now. The wrong correction got into the system, and the right number is almost 3 points worse-- it\'s a very significant backward move. Some may take the position he could have run faster that day anyway, I\'m not among them.

[beyerguy]

That Tampa race did not look like the easy race many say that it was.  He looked pretty all out to me until very late in the race.

[jimbo66]

Thanks for the info JB.

At three points slower, even if he \"could have run faster\", I am certainly not going to assume he could have run 4 to 5 points faster.  

That makes him an even better bet against, hopefully as the favorite!!

I thought he was ridden out fairly hard also, but I don\'t think he\'s the type of horse that has that kind of explosive brilliance that just draws off from a weak field when asked. I think he prompted a bunch of very weak horses and then ran for about 1/4 mile. That performance is the one thing I don\'t like about him. However, I don\'t believe he\'s near as bad as that figure. If he doesn\'t run faster than that figure I would be shocked - especially considering the way Zito is going. At one point, I thought everyone and his brother was going to hate him off that slow figure. So I thought it was possible I could bet him at a much bigger price, but it appears he will be a short price, so I will probably look to beat him if I get involved in the race.

I think this horse is simultaneously overrated and underrated - if that is possible. The people that think he\'s Zito\'s #1 prospect (including Nick himself) are overrating him and the people just looking at that last figure are underrating him.



Post Edited (04-12-05 15:32)

[jbelfior]

CH--

I always looked at SUN KING as pretty much a one-paced horse.

For the Derby, I prefer someone with a turn of foot ( BANDINI is first to come to mind but the training interruption is a big concern). That\'s probably why Woody Stephens always liked the miler types ( I like to extend that to include 7f pace pressure horses) translating well to a 1 1/4.

If you look at all of the Derby contenders, the most impressive runners at 7f and 1 mile are BANDINI, HIGH FLY, BELLAMY ROAD, and HIGH LIMIT. I\'m not surprised they were all able to run so well when stretched out.

Now go back at some Derby winners like UNBRIDLED, FERDINAND, SILVER CHARM, SEA HERO, MONARCHOS, SMARTY JONES, WAR EMBLEM, LIL E TEE. Not to mention the strong runners up like FORTY NINER, EASY GOER, and LION HEART. All of the above mentioned had impressive wins at 7f and or 1 mile as 2 or 3yos.

I think we tend to get too wrapped up in the 1 1/16th and 1 1/8 performances. Not to say they are not important, but we should look at the entire picture when trying to gauge who will get a mile and a quarter in May.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

Sun Kings race (I have it taped) at TAMPA was very unimpressive. SK supposedly did not train tight for the race and it looked it.Maybe his 3yr old debut knocked him back somewhat.Zito made no secret up until last Saturday that SK was his best 3yr old. Now he is being very politic, even with his owners.He did say that you shouldn\'t judge SK by his TAMPA race.We\'ll see Saturday.

Over the years I have heard many trainers make \"liars\" out of their horses by overrating them. If you like or hate a horse, don\'t let the trainer BS throw you off.

Joe,

I also think having a good \"turn of foot\" is an advantage - especially if the horse is rateable.  

I\'m not a big fan of Sun King for the Derby right now. I just tend to be a very contrary thinker.

When everyone loved him it was easy for me to find things I didn\'t like.

If everyone hates him because the last race was so slow, it\'s very easy for me to think he\'s better than that. They came home in close to 12 second furlongs - which is not that bad at a route on the dirt for a horse that\'s not so brilliant to begin with.  

I\'m somewhere in the middle on it. So if they make him the favorite on Saturday, I hope to find someone in there to try to beat him with.

I have the same problem with Bandini that you do. I don\'t like getting interrupted like that. I just love the way Pletcher spots young horses in general and gets them to develop. All his 3YOs are improving steadily and I would feel certain this one would too without that interruption. It looks like he\'s a little behind a few of these, they will also get better, and he had that training setback. The offsetting news is that he\'s likely to be the 4th choice and may not be that far off them.



Post Edited (04-12-05 16:23)