Author Topic: consolidator  (Read 832 times)

shanahan

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consolidator
« on: April 17, 2005, 07:20:07 AM »
most disappointed in him today, expected a big one.  The BG stakes did not impress me, but I was only watching on big screen here at OAKLAWN - did not seem that anyone was running comfortably - interested in others perspective on this.
For those of you who follow Lukas regularly, was this predictable (leaving the tank full for May 7th?) or am I dreaming?
Secondly, if you thought AA looked good on YOUR TV screens...my god, you should have seen him up close!  I totally dropped him after the last race but , as a fan, I feel a little vindication for Rose being on him in the winners circle...and then Ritchey tells us that he \"may or may not\" have the mount in Louisville?  You guys must be right about Ritchey...

big18741

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2005, 10:01:27 AM »
Consolidator was lathered up on his neck going to the post yesterday as he was for the San Vicente.Never a good sign.

If you have the San Felipe post parade and walk up to the gate on tape he\'s a different looking horse.I guess it has to do with being a Storm Cat-they\'re all a little nuts.He also doesn\'t want to sit in behind horses and rate.

jimbo66

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2005, 10:02:24 AM »
Shanahan,

AA was awfully impressive.  I would guess that his figure will come back better than Bandini\'s, which is a quandry.  Everybody (myself included) felt the Bluegrass was the best and deepest prep.  Well, Bandini blew it open, with his previous T-Graph top only 3.3, running a pretty mediocre time (albeit 3w, 3w).  High Limit did not look good at all, but he still held 2nd by over 3 lengths, after bumping the rail in the stretch (did not affect outcome to Bandini at all, but should have allowed somebody to catch him for 2nd).  Consolidator and Sun King didn\'t run a lick.  Michael D, I know Sun King was wide, but I don\'t believe he will get the 2nd fastest figure in the race.  Another gentelmen\'s bet :)

I was happy for Ritchey until the post race interview.  I couldn\'t believe his answer when they asked him about Jeremy Rose.  Ritchey has mistrained the horse this year by most people\'s view.  I am not saying it is true, but most people seem to think it was a mistake the way he was over-working the horse, had him run another furlong after the 6 furlong race (in which he ran huge).

So, I think the question should be whether the owner removes Ritchey before the derby, not whether Ritchey removes Rose.  That would be justice......

shanahan

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2005, 10:12:56 AM »
big and jimbo - thank you for your insight...I am stilllaughing about the quandary on replacing - ritchey or rose?  too funny...big - did you think the :58 blowout was a facotr with consolidator?  They made a big deal of that time with funny cide and it did give me pause, but I ignored it.  Smart?  or stupid?

miff

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2005, 10:44:15 AM »
Shanahan,

Always stick to your guns and forget the workout guru\'s.I think that JB disparaged Richey for the 46 work, meanwhile AA was explosive when it counted,hardly an overworked horse.

miff

Wrongly

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2005, 01:44:59 PM »
Just an FYI, Ritchey is from Pittsburgh, the owners are from Philly.  Don\'t think they are changing trainers any time soon.  Rose will lose the mount.  How about Gary Stevens?

Chuckles_the_Clown2

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2005, 01:50:15 PM »
This is a very good horse that has run well for Rose. He is finding a way to take him wide. Its a very tough call. I do think Elliot was partially responsible for Smarty\'s Belmont Loss. I\'d offer the horse to Bailey. He\'s still the best and won\'t panic in the Derby.

If Bailey turned him down for whatever reason, I\'d stick with Rose.



Post Edited (04-17-05 14:54)

miff

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2005, 02:03:53 PM »
I thought Rose was a passenger yesterday and I did not like his perservering with AA deep into the strecth when the race was obviously over.A good rider would have snatched AA late to try to save something for MAY 7th.

I also think Rose butchered this horse more than once before.Give that these connections will probably never get a derby shot again,they should reach for the best available jock.

miff

Silver Charm

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2005, 02:19:21 PM »
He rode the horse way to hard in the stetch and was five wide around the far turn.

Where is Donald Trump when you need him.

Rose, your Fired


gvido

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2005, 06:28:03 PM »
Therein lies the difference between AA\'s romp and Bellamy\'s. Castellano was waving to the crowd at the 1/16th pole while Rose was knocking the hell out of AA. Hand ride---hard ridden. Got that Chuckles?

May they all come home safely!

Bally Ache

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2005, 06:52:57 PM »
You people are incredible. Ritchey already made the mistake of taking Rose off the horse once with very poor results.

As far as Rose being a passenger, they\'re all passengers.  But this horse runs for this jockey.  Period.


Chuckles_the_Clown2

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2005, 06:53:57 PM »
gvido wrote:

> Therein lies the difference between AA\'s romp and Bellamy\'s.
> Castellano was waving to the crowd at the 1/16th pole while
> Rose was knocking the hell out of AA. Hand ride---hard ridden.
> Got that Chuckles?
>

gvido, are you going out on a limb and predicting a Derby victory for Bellamy Road before the Lexington is even run? Or are you merely predicting a head to head matchup victory for Bellamy over Afleet Alex?  If you\'re making a prediction, you should apparently consider saying it plain English and posting your exotics plays also.

I would point out the following however in saying that a 120 Beyer exceeds a 108 Beyer:

-Do you really have confidence in that 120 Beyer?, especially in consideration of the other distance race that day, and if not do you think you can equate a variant for the one and two turn races?;

-Do you think Beyer factored the ground loss into the equation in making his respective Beyer numbers?, and if not do you think that may be relevant in the coming race?;

-Do you think there may be horses entered in the Derby that may be able to run the last quarter faster than Bellamy Road?, especially in consideration of a contested pace scenario and a more energy draining surface, assuming you think those variables are likely to manifest themselves in the next race;

-Do you think the post position draw will be relevant in any way to this years Kentucky Derby?;

-Regarding Beyer Numbers, do you find it significant that in utilizing those numbers to predict Derby winners, Andy Beyer has never picked a winner of the Kentucky Derby?;

-Lastly, do you think a hand ride as opposed to some moderate urging is especially significant in regard to whether a horse has already run too fast for his own good? (Which is not offered to either suggest or refute that either Afleet Alex or Bellamy Road ran his last race too fast for his own good.)

I guess the 64,000 dollar question is: \"Gvido, are you predicting Bellamy Road to win this Years Kentucky Derby?\" Don\'t be shy, step on up.

Bally Ache, regarding replacing Rose on AA, I admire you\'re loyalty. I think the urging in the last part of the Ark was in regard to getting caught late in the B.C. Juvenile. It may have been slightly overdone, but I don\'t think its going to be significant. Still Rose is finding wide paths. Bailey has won two Derbies and both times they were masterful rides. He finds a way to find a hole and save ground. I would not trade Rose for Johnny V, he has no real history and is gonna have butterfiles, but I would trade for Bailey. If they can\'t get Bailey, its fate saying stick with Rose. I was livid when Frankel dumped Pincay on Megadeath, but Rose has a bright future and the chance to use Bailey is limited.

CtC



Post Edited (04-17-05 20:10)

gvido

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2005, 04:55:36 AM »
gvido wrote:

> Therein lies the difference between AA\'s romp and Bellamy\'s.
> Castellano was waving to the crowd at the 1/16th pole while
> Rose was knocking the hell out of AA. Hand ride---hard ridden.
> Got that Chuckles?
>

You see Chuckie Baby, you write so much crap on this board that you don\'t remember what you\'ve written.

You said it was impossible for BR not to be hard ridden tying a track record. Well that\'s exactly what happened Chuckie. Castellano was \"hot dogging\" at the 1/16th pole and Nickie Z, was stunned by the performance. The outrider had a difficult time reeling in BR.

In the other scenario Rose aggressively uses the stick, while being comfortably ahead, gets reamed out by the trainer and might lose the Derby mount.

Close similarity huh Chuckie?
*****************************************

gvido, are you going out on a limb and predicting a Derby victory for Bellamy Road before the Lexington is even run? Or are you merely predicting a head to head matchup victory for Bellamy over Afleet Alex? If you\'re making a prediction, you should apparently consider saying it plain English and posting your exotics plays also.

Since Chuckles the Psychic Klown knows who\'s partaking in the race and knows the post positions, I\'ll gladly list my plays. Just post them buddy.

Unlike you, I\'ll make my predictions/plays and not come back saying how I hit the race with some nonsense about saving with horses I never mentioned.

Will you make your plays known? Of course you won\'t......

****************************************

I would point out the following however in saying that a 120 Beyer exceeds a 108 Beyer:

-Do you really have confidence in that 120 Beyer?, especially in consideration of the other distance race that day, and if not do you think you can equate a variant for the one and two turn races?;

If I really had to, I know I can. I used to make my own figs and the point is what exactly? That\'s why I used to pay Ragozin, now T-graph.

Belittling posts seems to fit you to a T.

***************************************

-Do you think Beyer factored the ground loss into the equation in making his respective Beyer numbers?, and if not do you think that may be relevant in the coming race?;

You\'re a certifiable dope for asking such a stupid question....

*****************************************

-Do you think there may be horses entered in the Derby that may be able to run the last quarter faster than Bellamy Road?,

Yup it\'s possible. But we\'ll never know how fast BR could\'ve gotten the Wood; now do we? MUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAHHHH

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 especially in consideration of a contested pace scenario and a more energy draining surface, assuming you think those variables are likely to manifest themselves in the next race;

Or maybe not? Perhaps there is no contested pace and everyone is afraid to run with BR early. Ever consider that? Likely not.

The front runners may be so far in front the closers will be gasping for breath.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

-Do you think the post position draw will be relevant in any way to this years Kentucky Derby?;

Chuckles the Petulant Klown keeps asking silly condescending questions. Are you trying to embarrass me or yourself....

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

-Regarding Beyer Numbers, do you find it significant that in utilizing those numbers to predict Derby winners, Andy Beyer has never picked a winner of the Kentucky Derby?;

Not my fault Beyer is a dope and what is your fascination with Beyer? Are you his secret love child? Geeze....

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

-Lastly, do you think a hand ride as opposed to some moderate urging is especially significant in regard to whether a horse has already run too fast for his own good? (Which is not offered to either suggest or refute that either Afleet Alex or Bellamy Road ran his last race too fast for his own good.)

Who can say for certain if a horse has run too fast or not for its own good? Horses go out for exercise, like Scipion, whom you, Chuckle the Magnificent all knowing Klown, noted will be a nice 3yo this fall, breaks down and fractures his hip, better than a month ago. Tragedies like these happen too frequently. Most likely from micro stress fractures incurred during the rigors ofracing, workouts and exercise.

I\'m guessing you have some secret formula that tells YOU?

*******************************************

I guess the 64,000 dollar question is: \"Gvido, are you predicting Bellamy Road to win this Years Kentucky Derby?\" Don\'t be shy, step on up.

MUUUUUUUUUUUUHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAHHH

Ahh don\'t worry Chuckie, I\'m not shy. When I see the figs, I\'ll get back to you. I picked Volponi on these airwaves to win the BC ten days beforehand. That\'s stepping out Chuckie. Have you ever given out a 40-1 winner Chuck? 30-1? Anything folks can sink their teeth into the day before, morning of the race? Of course not Chuck, of course not.

Have a miserable day, Chuck. Your denigrating post was an insult to me and possibly others on this board.

May they all come home safely!

Bally Ache

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2005, 11:00:05 AM »
I didn\'t say Afleet Alex will win the Derby & I have no allegiance to Rose but common sense tells you to leave him on this horse.

Jockeys can and do hurt you with a bad ride but none of them can win without the stock.  The only reason people pay attention to jockeys is that horses can\'t talk and trainers lie.


Chuckles_the_Clown2

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Re: consolidator
« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2005, 11:31:18 AM »
> gvido wrote:


> You said it was impossible for BR not to be hard ridden tying a
> track record.

NO I DIDNT, PROVE IT...I can\'t find the post that refutes that nonsense but you can find the post to prove it and make me look silly. (Then again...being \"hard ridden\" has little to do with how hard a horse ran.) I may have said \"Theres no such thing as a fast easy figure.\" That would be true.

> The outrider had a difficult
> time reeling in BR.

Do you think that may imply the horse was on the throttle in the end during the Jockey\'s \"Hot dogging\"?

> Close similarity huh Chuckie?
> *****************************************

I pay the two versions very little mind. Wagering on that variable would be very tenuous in my opinion.

> Since Chuckles the Psychic Klown knows who\'s partaking in the
> race and knows the post positions, I\'ll gladly list my plays.
> Just post them (the entrants) buddy.

Ahhh, so post position and the entrants are significant to you after all!

> Will you make your plays known? Of course you won\'t......

I may or may not...I may keep it entirely to myself this year, but I\'ll go out on the limb and state Bellamy Road will not win and I will play him to miss it all as well.

> If I really had to, I know I can. I used to make my own figs
> and the point is what exactly? That\'s why I used to pay
> Ragozin, now T-graph.

I\'ve used both too and you\'ve made the right decision on your source. I\'m gonna keep my eye on you.

> -Do you think there may be horses entered in the Derby that may
> be able to run the last quarter faster than Bellamy Road?,
>
> Yup it\'s possible. But we\'ll never know how fast BR could\'ve
> gotten the Wood; now do we?
> MUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAHHHH
>

lol...I think I know how fast he got the last quarter and how fast he\'s gonna get the last quarter in the Derby.

> Or maybe not? Perhaps there is no contested pace and everyone
> is afraid to run with BR early. Ever consider that? Likely not.

I have, I dont think Bellamy ran particularly quick last. I know Spanish Chestnut would fry him, but SC won\'t be in the race. If High Limit and Rockport go I\'ve got no worries.

> The front runners may be so far in front the closers will be
> gasping for breath.

I wouldnt count on that...you never know but there looks like theres gonna be some good horses in this race.

>Scipion, whom
> you, Chuckle the Magnificent all knowing Klown, noted will be a
> nice 3yo this fall, breaks down and fractures his hip, better
> than a month ago. Tragedies like these happen too frequently.

I didn\'t know that. I was gettin ready to go out of town and was out of town a month. I\'m sorry to hear that. He had potential, but the La. horses in hindsight look a little weak.

I\'ve picked a few winners here and made some bad picks too. What I generally do best is spot weak favorite plays. Doesnt mean i always zing in for the big score, but I sometimes do and I\'m overdue.



Post Edited (04-18-05 12:38)