Will this Years Ky Derby be a Topless One??

[Silver Charm]

TGJB,

I looked in the archives and studied the Sheet of all previous Ky Derby winners since you began making figures and noticed that almost none of the previous winner won while running a New Top.

Can you explain why this phenommena occurs not only on the inner surface but on the main track as well on Derby Day

[mikemd]

i must be missing something here.  i see a majority running a new top to win.

[P-Dub]

Just wondering but.........is it difficult to expect a spring 3 yo to run a new top going 1 1/4 miles for the first time?? Seems like a tough spot to expect that.

Instead of raw numbers should we look for the horse that looks like or has shown that he can handle the distance, in addition to number power and pattern?? Running a strong figure at a mile or 1 1/16 doesn\'t mean that it can be duplicated at 1 1/4.

[Silver Charm]

Mikemd correct,

Several of the earlier archived Derby winners were not Topless.

Since then things have gone either Topless or there have been lots of pairs on Derby Day.

Jerry please explain.

Thanks

[twoshoes]

If recent history is relevant your Derby winner has probably run fast enough (around a 1 ) to win it already and will win with a pair or slight backward move (see Bellamy Road.) Off the top of my head this group would include not in any particular order - Bellamy Road; High Fly; Blues & Royals; Afleet Alex; Sun King; Consolidator; High Limit; Bandini (assuming his BG was that fast.) Rockport still to run in Lexington so maybe. I\'m sure I\'m forgetting someone and I\'m not saying it has to be that way though at this point I\'d be surprised if your winner isn\'t on that list. Of course if this post follows my recent form I\'d look elsewhere.

Mark