Taken Back

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

\"He\'s fine,\" trainer D. Wayne Lukas said. \"We just took him completely out of his game. Rafael, I think, was a little bit concerned about the speed and when a couple of those horses broke kind of sharp, he just elected to take back. We\'ve never had a good race out of him taking back.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/full_edition.cgi

He ran fractions of approximately:

24.41-47.65-1.11.31

He obviously ran quicker fractions in the San Felipe, but that was a very hot surface. Other than the opening fraction in the Bluegrass I cannot say Consolidator ran slower paced than he was capable of. Lukas has issued the warning however. If Consolidator is capable of mixing it up with the likes of Bellamy Road, Rockport Harbor and High Limit, hes going.

I think the traditional Keeneland bias was in full force and effect though with a little outside path help. Bandini inherited the softened up pieces from just off pace.

I\'ve staked out a very strong position against Bellamy Road here and it hasn\'t been popularly received. I\'ve been accused of lunacy and worse on issue, but I\'m not one to shy away from conviction. When its over I want one thing absolutely clear, when NO ONE else voiced a similar view, I stood opposed to the notion that Bellamy Road was a super horse from the very beginning.



Post Edited (04-18-05 14:43)

[Silver Charm]

When a horse like Consolidator settles five lengths off the pace and comes in ten lengths off the pace......

It is a very strong work. OK

[big18741]

Silver Charm:

I think its very possible Lukas used the BG as a work out race.You don\'t want a top effort 3 races in a row(assuming the derby is a top race).The way Bejarano took him 6 wide coming off the turn and then ducked back inside 3 paths smells a lot like a work race.I need to take a look at the tape and see if Bejarano used the stick on him at all in the stretch.Lukas did say earlier in the week that the top 4 finishers Saturday will have gone to the well a little bit.I always assumed he thought he would be one of the four.Maybe not.

[jimbo66]

Maybe the race turned out to be a workout for the horse.

But why would Lukas use the race as a workout?  That seems a few steps beyond the line of realism.  The horse was fit and in shape and ran poorly.  Doesn\'t mean he can\'t run better in May, but I doubt Lukas would throw the race.

A different story in 2001 with Proud Citizen.  Lukas said before the Santa Anita DErby that he had a late start with Proud Citizen and had to use the SA Derby as a \"prep\" or \"workout\" for bigger things later.  The horse ran up the track, as expected, came back and won the Lexington and placed in the Derby at high odds.

Consolidator was running in a very presitgious race, in form, at a track he had won a graded stakes race at already.

None of the top horses from CA has lifted a hoof against top 3YOs from other parts of the country and at least 1 that was dog went there and ran well. The one thing I am certain about is that I\'m not betting a horse from out there in the Derby.

[jimbo66]

CH,

Agreed on Cal. horses.  Although \"throwing out the California horses\" figures to be an angle that everybody will use.  They look like crap on T-Graph figures, Beyer figures, Brisnet figures, Rags figures, pace figures, etc.etc.

Not sure there will be any value in throwing them out.   I have made a few wagers with gambling friends, offering 5-1 on any horse that ran in the Santa Anita Derby finishing in the Superfecta Derby day.  I don\'t expect to have to pay out.

jimbo,

I agree. It\'s a bit late now because everyone knows. They are unlikely to take a lot of money. But it wasn\'t too late in a few of the recent preps where I thought a horse or two was overbet.

[jbelfior]

CH--

I agree to a point. I think CONSOLIDATOR will love CD. Check out his 2 works going in compared to the performance at Keenland.

Unusual a horse working that well would perform that poorly...under normal circumstances. I think he\'s a terrific use in the exotics.

WINNING COLORS had an awful prep going into the BC as did CAT THIEF. Ditto THUNDER GULCH.

Lukas is too sharp to dismiss at big odds, especially with a horse that has already put up a number that makes him competetive on May 7th.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

Consolidator already ran at Keenland and won, running a nice figure last year.  Hard to discount the race as one of the typical \"Keenland is a quirky surface, my horse just didn\'t like it\" excuses.

I think he is usable at decent odds too, but I can\'t figure out why he didn\'t run on Saturday.

I only refer to the horses that ran in the SA Derby, when I say 5-1 on any in the Superfecta.  Buzzard\'s Bay, Giacomo, Wilko, General John B. and anybody else that might run back.  They are all slow.  I guess you could make a small case for Wilko in the bottom two slots of the Super, based on the awful ride by Dettori. But even that is a stretch....

You can make a case for Wilko for a piece because of that trip.

I was highly suspect of Consolidator\'s last race and now that he ran badly, I don\'t see much to make me like him now.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I had very questionable pace numbers on Consolidator and commented that he was slower than many thought. I thought off pace would have an edge in the Bluegrass however and didn\'t hold his projected pace against him. I didn\'t foresee getting behind possibly discouraging him and at any rate he didnt run a lick. I do think a carrying bias had something to do with that, but I also think it likely that Consolidator just ran into faster horses Saturday than he was used to facing.

I believe Lukas was genuinely surprised by the effort. I\'ve concluded Lukas did not send this horse out for a race day work. Now, to my mind theres little doubt that Lukas will send him on May 7th. How close he can get to the front runners is another matter.

The times Lukas won the Derby or has run very competitively hes come in off wins to my knowledge. This time his horse ran very poorly. I do believe he has to be respected, but the pace looks severe to my eye. If Going Wild gets in, Katy bar the door.



Post Edited (04-18-05 20:11)

[spa]

Cinsolidaror WILL run big in the DERBY......

[Kasept]

CtC,

\"I believe Lukas was genuinely surprised by the effort.\"

That\'s not surprising.. Someone from the barn probably had to show him which horse Consolidator was..



\"The times Lukas won the Derby or has run very competitively hes come in off wins to my knowledge.\"

It\'s more of a mixed bag. Thunder Gulch was a dull 4th in the Blue Grass. Even if Timber Country had won, he was coming off a 4th to Larry the Legend in the SA Derby..

Grindstone 2nd in the AK Derby to Zarb\'s Magic.

Charismatic won the Lex though, Proud Citizen too, and Winning Colors the SA Derby..

[MO]

Well, its Derby time and once again I must remind you all that at best Thunder Gulch gets a big fat asterik - as his rider was equipped with and used a buzzer.

Now I am still a believer in the dual qualifyer system. There were a few horses over the last few years who were not dual qualifiers, but last years exacta had two dual qualifyers !! They also had the best TG figs.

What I see this year is: Bellamy Road (not a dual qualifyer) bouncing big time, like a Zito horse will often do.

Afleet Alex is a dual qualifyer, but also looks like a bounce candidate for a juice trainer.

Bandini is not a dual qualifyer and may have peaked in BG. Of all the non qualifyers though, he has my interest as his pattern has gradual increases and not big jumps.

Consolidator is a dual qualifyer but is inconsistant and has only one race that is fast. If Stevens had the mount in the Derby, then I wouldn\'t toss him (if you know what I mean).

Sun King - is another dual qualifyer but looks to me like another Zito flash in the pan.

High Fly is not a dual qualifyer and niether is Giants Causway. I am more interested in GC down the road like the Belmont.

Wilko and Giacomo are dual qualifyers and are being overlooked as their races so far are not very fast. I\'ll be looking at these two (more at Wilko) a little more closely since they will be a price and may just have saved the best for the Derby. Maybe a BC Juvinile winner can get off the schnied and finally win the Derby. Looking forward to seeing the sheets on this race.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Kasept wrote:

> CtC,
>
> \"I believe Lukas was genuinely surprised by the effort.\"
>
> That\'s not surprising.. Someone from the barn probably had to
> show him which horse Consolidator was..
>
>
>
> \"The times Lukas won the Derby or has run very competitively
> hes come in off wins to my knowledge.\"
>
> It\'s more of a mixed bag. Thunder Gulch was a dull 4th in the
> Blue Grass.

I knew Thunder missed the Bluegrass winners circle. It was a \"right there\" fourth is my recollection.

>Even if Timber Country had won, he was >coming off a
> 4th to Larry the Legend in the SA Derby..

I forgot that one too. How close?

> Grindstone 2nd in the AK Derby to Zarb\'s Magic.

I thought Grindstone won the Ark. Bad memory. He was right there vs.Zarb wasnt he?
 
> Charismatic won the Lex though, Proud Citizen too, and Winning
> Colors the SA Derby..

\"His Derby winners have not tossed a clunker in their last prep.\" I was wrong about Grindstone, but thats what I should have stated.

This time, its a bona fide clunker and the question is do you respect Lukas so much you work this horse into your combinations. I don\'t think he can win. Theres too much speed for that. The track will have alot to say about the betting strategy.

MO, I\'ve never been a big supporter of your buzzer theory, but after reaching the shenanigans conclusion that I have reaced this year with doping and secret vet visits, I am much less skeptical.

I dont have a number for Wilcos Santa Anita Derby yet and he did look hangy at the end, but I also believe with a nice appearance at Churchill Downs he is positioned to move forward. Whether that will be good enough is another issue.



Post Edited (04-19-05 11:08)