Brave New World

[TGJB]

The Breeders Cup/ESPN deal is very big-- I had a friend at the NTRA who was pushing this for a long time. ESPN has the opportunity and incentive to promote the hell out of this, and educate players along the way.

Next week marks the beginning of the first serious attempts to deal with the drug issue, on two fronts. The 6 hour detention period in New York may or may not be enough, and the super-tests in Kentucky are only for the graded races for now, but many of us will be watching the results of races next week with interest. Especially those of us thinking about betting on or against horses in the Oaks and Derby.

[kev]

You say this \"but many of us will be watching the results of races next week with interest\" meaning?? What you think Bobby F or whoever else is going to go cold and their horses stop running well?? From what I\'ve always heard on this board is their horses don\'t run very well anyways or in the BC. Why are people not tallking bad about Nick Z. if this was some other trainer than they thought was using, they would be all on them. I don\'t know if you can tell, by wacthing the races next week, you would have to look at each horse on a case by case sheet reading, right??

[TGJB]

I\'m not getting into naming names, but yes, I\'ll be looking to see how the horses of certain trainers are running at Belmont, and in the graded stakes at CD. Not whether they are winning, how they are running relative to their previous figures.

[kev]

Seems like there is a long list for these so-called move-up trainers, about how many do you plan on wacthing??

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Has there been any talk regarding Zito perhaps finding a new vet this year. He was good last year as well, but everything he\'s touched til the Bluegrass looked pretty impressive.

[SJU5]

that trainers at the NYRA tracks are not very cool to the idea that ONLY NY State vets can give the LASIX injections 4 hours pre-race.Not their own personal vet! What\'s the problem? Right? Seems as a way to keep the crooked vets out right?

Well each horse on lasix is given a very individual dose of the medication, be it 2 cc, 4 cc, to to 12 cc\'s pre race. I have been told that the NYRA vets are going to give EVERY HORSE the full 12 units.

More lasix than a horse is used too is detrimental I\'ve been told. It sedates horses...does anybody else have any imput on this? The NYRA site and press releases DO NOT mention this but my trainer at Belmont told me about this last week after we sent some horses out of state and had to let the track vet there give the lasix...and our horses ran like they were asleep!

[jimbo66]

CtC,

You know, with those comments by Shug, it may be possible that Survivalist ran an \"8\" and not a \"4\" in the Wood, in which case Bellamy Road didn\'t run a negative 5.

What do you think?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think you\'re trying to goad me into a controversy...lol

I don\'t know with certainty. In all candor I don\'t think Bellamy ran quite as fast as TGraph currently has him factored. But TGraph isnt the only one, Beyer and Sheets have him fast too.

I did see a traditional variant breakdown by BRIS and they had Survivalist off 6 lengths in the Wood from his prior. If Bris is right it will be rare time they catch a call over TGraph.

My deduction is the Wood collapsed and projection isn\'t feasible. A variant can\'t be accurately calculated on the two turn races either in my estimation. (As BRIS almost certainly attempted) If Bellamy ran Zed/Zed hes still dangerous. If he ran Zed/-5 hes the fastest 3 year old ever, but he could bounce.

Its a marvelous Derby. A handicapping extravaganza.

[Boscar Obarra]

\"Well each horse on lasix is given a very individual dose of the medication, be it 2 cc, 4 cc, to to 12 cc\'s pre race. I have been told that the NYRA vets are going to give EVERY HORSE the full 12 units.\"

 Interesting. Is there some rule that mandates  a set dosage? If so, it sounds like it wasn\'t being followed, if not, then how can NYRA impose the 12 cc\'s?

  In any case, if all that\'s true, it will create havoc with many form cycles.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Chuckles,

The Horse Just tied Riva Ridges (do you remember how good that horse was?) track Record that day. The record has been around since 71. It\'s ok to be a contrarian but this one is pretty basic if you ask me. The rest of the horses ran the \"normal\" race and Bellamy Freaked. I think you are very wrong this time.

Obviously you don\'t have to Bet Bellamy for many reasons but I think Jerry has the race right.

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

No I don\'t remember Riva Ridge. I thought his 3 year old year was 1972 though, so if his track record was from 1971 it must have been set as a 2yr old in the Nashua or something, but thats not really relevant. I undertand your point. \"If he tied a track record on a major track he must have run really fast\". Thats generally true, I just dont think it was as true Wood Day. Don Six is a fast horse, but he tied a six furlong mark that day as well.

But lets assume you understand that Survivalist is the \"pair key\" upon which Bellamy\'s big number is calculated from and you believe he paired. What you have then is Bellamy with a -5, now what?

Lets assume he draws post 7, what do you do with him? Lets assume further Afleet Alex goes off the favorite at 7-2 with Bellamy 4-1 and Bandini 6-1. Apparently he can bounce 8 lengths and still be competitive right? Whats his projected number in the circumtances and do you think it will win?

[jimbo66]

Chuckles,

For the record, I have heard from a Rags user that Jerry has the Wood Faster than Len does, and Len thinks T-Graph is wrong about the race (surprising that Len would think this?)  I think Rags has Bellamy\'s Wood the same speed as Bandini\'s Bluegrass, whereas Jerry has Bellamy a little faster than Bandini, although both are very fast.  

Interesting that you would surmise that Afleet Alex is 7-2 and Bellamy Road 4-1.  I don\'t disagree.  You must be noticing the same groundswell that I see in support for Afleet Alex and there are lots of Bellamy doubters.  I go to the Meadowlands Pegasus club for the Derby and they have a nice brunch/lunch spread.  I bet a friend of mine that the first time we see the odds from Churchill on Saturday, that Afleet Alex will be the favorite.  He says Bellamy.  Loser is buying.

As for what to do with Bellamy, I am really really struggling.  I have changed my mind 5 times in the past two weeks.  Part of me wants to just key him on top of Superfectas, betting against AA and Greeley (both bouncing!), using longshots in the Super that I think have a shot like Andromeda\'s Hero, Flower Alley, Coin Silver and Closing Argument.  I will also structure the wager such that High Fly or Noble Causeway must be in the super.

Then I change my mind and say how can you bet the favorite in this race.  He hasn\'t beaten a single quality horse this year and will be affected by Spanish Chestnut and the other speeds.  In this scenario, I think you have to consider that everything about this year points to the fact that Florida is where the best 3 year olds are.  I think I could key the 1-2 finishers in the Florida Derby, High Fly and Noble Causeway.  Both are in the \"1\" range and would need to move upp a little.  Off the 5 weeks rest, they could.  NC would appreciate a fast pace to close into and HF has tactical speed.  Having two fresh horses, both fast, both coming from Florida, with Jerry Bailey and Gary STevens in the irons, could be a good thing.  I figure about 8-1 on High Fly and maybe 10-1 on Noble Causeway.  Although I do think there is a good chance that NC becomes a \"wiseguy\" horse and gets bet down on Derby day.

[NoCarolinaTony]

It was 72. Riva Ridge did win the Derby that year, won two legs of the triple crown and was from the exact same connections as Secrateriat ( Laurin, Turcotte Chenery).

Right now, I agree he\'s (BR) the biggest dilema I\'ve seen in quite some time. All three horses could bounce while a few other could improve making this a very close race. But lets face it, it\'s probably down to 6-7 who \"could Win\" with4 of them making up greater that 75% likely hood ( Bellamy Road, Bandini, Afleet Alex and Greeley Galaxy ) with High Fly , High Limit and Sun King as the other possible. Perhaps Sun king did not like  Keeneland and loves CD. He worked well. Frankel\'s got us thinking about HL with his work with GZ.

But the issue of whether or not Bellamy Roads figure is right I again believe JB\'s right on the mark. The Horse did tie a 34 year old track mark of a High Quality \"REAL GOOD HORSE\" for a track thats been around for quite some time. I think we need to accept that fig and work with the scenario. I think you would be mistaken if you don\'t accpet the facts this time. Some three year olds have bounced significantly off new tops prior to the derby. Look at the history for specifics.

The question we need to ask ourslves is Can Belamy Pair or run an off but not an x, Can Bandini Run pair or another new top? Can GG run another new Top, Can AA  run another new top? Can Sun King, Noble Causeway, High Limit and Fly jump up 3-5 points (depending on which one)? We need to develop a  few scenarios as to how this race will be run after the PP assignments to help answer those questions.

NC Tony

[asfufh]

This article says Belmont administered lasix doses will vary according to the horse\'s trainer/vet specifications(within legal min/max limits). Also,discusses results of NYRA milkshaking tests since February 16 (no names)...now ready to implement official testing. http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=14439125&BRD=1170&PAG=461&dept_id=7021&rfi=8



Post Edited (04-30-05 01:22)

[asfufh]

More dosage info...NYRA website statement on new detention barns. See item 18 for lasix dosage info.
http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/feature.asp?track=A&id=1302



Post Edited (04-30-05 01:31)